predictions for Eastern Michigan game

Well, it's better than an 11:00 a.m. tip, but not much better.  Should I stay up
until Dunkel finishes populating his predictions for today's games?  Or should I
wake up early to get this posted at least a couple hours before game time?  Either
way, I lose sleep in the process.  To not lose sleep, I'd need to post now and not
wait for Dunkel.  I think I'll take that option.

Self was right when he said, after the loss to Arizona State, that the Jayhawks
weren't going to run the table anyway.  He was also right when he said that he'd
much rather lose a non-conference game than a conference game; so would I.
But let's be realistic here.  Who thinks the Jayhawks will run the table in
the conference?  The likely fact is that they'll drop more than one conference
game, so that preference to lose a non-conference game doesn't really make a
lot of sense in that context.  I think what hurt the most is that the Jayhawks
led for most of that game.  Yet the lead kept shrinking for the last 23 minutes
of the game, and one could sense that the Jayhawks weren't going to be able to
hold off the Sun Devils, especially with Lawson on the bench with foul trouble.
Still, Arizona State threw up some prayers, and those prayers were answered,
yet Kansas was still in the game up to the bitter end.  One also wonders if it
being a true road game is what caused the foul discrepancy.  Even though the
Jayhawks hit an amazingly high percentage from the stripe, Arizona State still
canned four more charities than Kansas even attempted.  And there's the final
margin.

So although it cost the Jayhawks 4 spots in the human polls, the computers hardly
noticed an issue.  Kansas slipped one spot in Massey's ranking, and actually went
up a spot in Sagarin's Overall ranking.  By the way, the Big 12 is back on top
of Sagarin's conference ratings.

On paper, today's game is the easiest of the season.  The Eagles have played a
curious schedule.  On the one hand, they've played top tier opponents Duke, TCU,
Rutgers, and now Kansas, but on the other hand have also played three NAIA and
one Division II opponents.  So that 6-6 record is deceiving, as the record
against Division I competition is just 2-6.

In case you notice that the Sagarin eigenvector margin is even larger than the
Sagarin Predictor margin, yet the probability of winning is lower, it's presumably
because Sagarin is using a larger inconsistency factor than I am.  Sagarin himself
provided the probability for the eigenvector margin, whereas I computed the
probability for the predictor margin.  Both Kansas and Eastern Michigan are a fair
bit more consistent than the national average, which is why I'm using a smaller
inconsistency factor, which makes it that much harder for Kansas to play badly
enough to lose, or for Eastern Michigan to play goodly enough to win.  Goodly?
Well, good is the opposite of bad, so goodly ought to be the opposite of badly.
If that offends your sensibilities, think "play well enough to win."

You might also notice that Sagarin's strength of schedule ranking for Eastern
Michigan is significantly higher than Massey's.  I assume that's because Sagarin
is looking only at Division I games, whereas Massey is looking at all games,
including those four against Division II or NAIA opponents.

Perhaps you've heard the saying "To err is human; to really screw up takes a
computer."  In the case of Seven Overtimes, the power rankings may be correct,
though the 9-1 record for Kansas is not, but the predictions for today's games
are bizarre.  For example, the record for Kansas is shown to be 31-8, while the
record for Eastern Michigan is 17-12.  The ranking for the Jayhawks is #58,
while the ranking for the Eagles is #240.  So, should we trust the 28 point
margin shown?  At least the game time is correct, as is the broadcast network.
And the fact that there is a game between these two teams.

Dolphin is now on board for this season.  As usual, he waited until the teams
were well connected.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of
them; Eastern Michigan has a higher offensive rebound percentage.  Among the seven
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of them; Eastern Michigan grabs
more offensive rebounds per game, blocks more shots per game, and commits fewer
personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though this game will create a common
opponent for the conference contests with TCU.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Paul Jackson (guard)
most points        Paul Jackson (guard)
most rebounds      James Thompson IV (forward)
most assists       Paul Jackson (guard)
most steals        Elijah Minnie (guard)
most blocks        Boubecar Toure (center)
most turnovers     Paul Jackson (guard)
most fouls         Boubecar Toure (center)

Eastern Michigan has no reported injuries.  Udoka Azubuike is still not
100 percent recovered from his ankle sprain, so I would expect limited
action at best, and wouldn't be surprised if he sits for the entire game,
as it's unlikely he'll be needed against an overmatched opponent.  And
still no word on Silvio De Sousa's eligibility status, which is not a
good sign.

                                                          10-1            6-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       East Michigan
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +24.35   84   60                #  6   #  4     #197   # 39 
Sagarin Predictor      +24.12   84   60       99.7     #  9   #  4     #198   # 39 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +25.33   85   59                #  4   #  4     #186   # 39 
Sagarin Recent Games   +25.64   85   59                #  4   #  4     #212   # 39 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +32.49   88   56       97       
Massey                 +27.00   85   58       99       #  4   #  1     #215   #273
Pomeroy                +21.98   80   58                #  5   #  6     #190   # 35
Greenfield             +22.50   81.5 59                #  6   #  4     #202   #258
Dunkel                 +  .00                          #  5            #165                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +  .00                                                     
Dolphin Predictive     +22.87   82   59       97.3     # 10   #  5     #230   #206
Real Time              +28.00   90   62       97.1     #  1   #  2     #197   # 20 
Seven Overtimes        +28.00   85   57       98       #  3   #  2     #195   # 80
DPPI                   +25.20   81   56       99.9     # 11   #        #257   #   
ESPN BPI               +24.20                 97.8     #  8   #  8     #223   #141
Whitlock               +28.32                          #  6   #  1     #251   #268
Colley Matrix          +32.11                          #  1   #  1     #227   # 23
NCAA NET                                               # 12            #258
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +25.1    84.2 58.6
scatter                  3.2     2.9  1.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is down to 24-7, with
projected losses at Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -2.61    +7.61
HOME   #110 Vermont                     84  68   +17.07    -1.07
HOME   #151 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.75    -7.75
NEUT   # 24 Marquette                   77  68    +3.62    +5.38
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.82    +4.18
HOME   #102 Stanford                    90  84   +16.48   -10.48
HOME   # 75 Wofford                     72  47   +13.92   +11.08
HOME   # 56 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.25    -9.25
HOME   # 20 Villanova                   74  71    +6.39    -3.39
HOME   #192 South Dakota                89  53   +23.75   +12.25
AWAY   # 45 Arizona State               76  80    +4.56    -8.56
HOME   #198 Eastern Michigan                     +24.12             0.997
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                              +6.30             0.739
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            -0.28             0.489
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   +6.92             0.760
AWAY   # 78 Baylor                                +7.80             0.786
HOME   # 33 Texas                                 +9.20             0.826
AWAY   # 55 West Virginia                         +5.77             0.722
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +6.12             0.733
AWAY   # 23 Kentucky                              +0.42             0.517
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +2.80             0.612
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            +4.25             0.667
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                          +2.76             0.611
HOME   # 77 Oklahoma State                       +14.05             0.924
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +0.52             0.521
HOME   # 55 West Virginia                        +12.17             0.892
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -2.15             0.413
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                          +9.16             0.825
AWAY   # 77 Oklahoma State                        +7.65             0.782
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                              -0.10             0.496
HOME   # 78 Baylor                               +14.20             0.926

Here is Eastern Michigan's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        Rochester College           77  67
HOME   #244 Drexel                      66  62    +6.56    -2.56
NAIA        Goshen College              97  74
AWAY   #  1 Duke                        46  84   -32.36    -5.64
HOME   #208 Boston U.                   80  62    +3.96   +14.04
AWAY   # 89 Rutgers                     36  63   -12.13   -14.87
HOME   #257 Detroit Mercy               74  78    +7.02   -11.02
AWAY   # 25 TCU                         69  87   -20.40    +2.40
AWAY   #114 Northeastern                67  81    -9.51    -4.49
Div2        Central State (Ohio)       105  53
HOME   #100 UC Irvine                   48  52    -4.62    +0.62
NAIA        Siena Heights               90  72
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -24.12             0.003