predictions for Arizona State game

Deja vu.  Wofford was supposed to have played Stanford, but didn't because of
poor air quality in northern California caused by the wildfires.  And now we
have Arizona State, who was supposed to have played San Francisco, but didn't
for the same reason.  So like Kansas, the Sun Devils have played only 10 games,
while Duke and Michigan State have played 12 games, and Gonzaga 13 games!

It's the first true road game of the season for Kansas, and although three
neutral court games against top opponents will help prepare the team for a
less supportive atmosphere, it's still not quite the same.

Arizona State is coming off its worst performance of the season, playing over
13 points below expectation against Vanderbilt, while Kansas is coming off its
best performance of the season, playing almost 12 points above expectation
against South Dakota.  In fact, it's been four consecutive below expectation
performance for the Sun Devils, leading to a negative trend of some statistical
significance.  Their two losses have come in the last three games.

Dunkel is the most optimistic, favoring Kansas by a whopping 15 points.
Real Time is the pessimist of the bunch, the only prognosticator to predict
a Kansas loss.  Greenfield and ESPN think it'll be a one-possession nail-biter.

Although the statistics say that Kansas has been more consistent than the
national average, that's on a whole-game basis.  Within a game, we've seen
the Jayhawks take the Jekyll and Hyde approach to basketball.  The Hyde team
will play an opponent more or less even. while Jekyll goes on an impressive
run.  Jekyll never showed up against New Mexico State.  Let's see who shows
up today.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five
of them; Arizona State grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher
offensive rebound percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal
attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four
of them; Arizona State holds opponents to a lower effective field goal
percentage, grabs more offensive rebounds per game, and also grabs more
defensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Luguentz Dort (guard)
most points        Luguentz Dort (guard)
most rebounds      Zylan Cheatham (forward)
most assists       Zylan Cheatham (forward)
most steals        Luguentz Dort (guard)
most blocks        De'Quon Lake (forward)
most turnovers     Luguentz Dort (guard)
most fouls         De'Quon Lake (forward)

Forward Mickey Mitchell missed the last game with a back injury; it's
unknown if he'll be available for today's game.  It sounds like Self
would prefer not to play Udoka Azubuike, hoping he won't be needed and
will be 100 percent by the time conference play begins, but Doke has
apparently reached the point in his recovery that he's practicing, so
he might be used in an emergency.  And still no word on Silvio De Sousa's
eligibility status.  It's been thought that if the only issue is the
$2500 allegedly received for summer classes, he might be ruled eligible
after paying $2500 to some charity and sitting out some number of games,
like the penalties for comparable infractions.  If so, we might see him
for conference play.  Otherwise, one might conclude that the issues are
more serious.

                                                          10-0            8-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Arizona State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.00   79   73                #  7   #  7     # 47   # 99 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.60   79   73       75.2     #  7   #  7     # 51   # 99 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.58   80   72                #  2   #  7     # 44   # 99 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.41   81   71                #  3   #  7     # 56   # 99 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +8.67   80   72       78       
Massey                  +6.00   81   75       70       #  3   #  1     # 36   # 37
Pomeroy                 +6.63   79   73                #  3   # 15     # 46   # 95
Greenfield              +2.50   77.5 75                #  6   #  6     # 37   # 25
Dunkel                 +15.00   82.5 67.5              #  5            # 43                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   78   74.5                                         
Real Time               -4.00   80   84       40.2     #  1   #  2     # 37   #114 
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   81   72       70       #  4   #  2     # 92   #116
DPPI                    +5.00   78   73       75.6     #  7   #  2     # 45   # 69
ESPN BPI                +1.90                 56.7     #  7   # 15     # 47   # 54
Whitlock                +5.59                          #  2   #  1     # 37   # 37
Colley Matrix          +11.70                          #  1   #  1     # 37   #112
NCAA NET                                               #  4            # 43
Dolphin Predictive      
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.3    79.7 73.5
scatter                  4.3     1.5  3.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection remains at 25-6, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              92  87    -2.12    +7.12
HOME   #108 Vermont                     84  68   +17.70    -1.70
HOME   #146 Louisiana                   89  76   +21.00    -8.00
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                   77  68    +4.92    +4.08
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   87  81    +2.41    +3.59
HOME   #100 Stanford                    90  84   +17.00   -11.00
HOME   # 70 Wofford                     72  47   +14.14   +10.86
HOME   # 44 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.58    -8.58
HOME   # 22 Villanova                   74  71    +7.91    -4.91
HOME   #191 South Dakota                89  53   +24.21   +11.79
AWAY   # 51 Arizona State                         +5.60             0.752
HOME   #200 Eastern Michigan                     +24.69             0.994
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                              +6.77             0.756
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            +0.25             0.510
HOME   # 25 TCU                                   +8.16             0.799
AWAY   # 75 Baylor                                +8.19             0.800
HOME   # 34 Texas                                 +9.75             0.841
AWAY   # 52 West Virginia                         +5.66             0.719
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +6.65             0.752
AWAY   # 24 Kentucky                              +1.74             0.571
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +3.35             0.634
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +4.77             0.688
AWAY   # 38 Kansas State                          +3.94             0.657
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +14.84             0.936
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +1.76             0.572
HOME   # 52 West Virginia                        +12.06             0.892
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -1.63             0.434
HOME   # 38 Kansas State                         +10.34             0.856
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State                        +8.44             0.807
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                              +0.37             0.515
HOME   # 75 Baylor                               +14.59             0.933

Here is Arizona State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #173 CS Fullerton               102  94   +14.22    -6.22
HOME   #306 McNeese State               80  52   +22.52    +5.48
HOME   #219 Long Beach State            90  58   +17.45   +14.55
AWAY   # 39 San Francisco                         -4.81             0.327
NEUT   # 28 Mississippi State           72  67    -3.15    +8.15
NEUT   # 42 Utah State                  87  82    -0.58    +5.58
HOME   #201 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           89  71   +16.01    +1.99
HOME   #233 Texas Southern              83  71   +18.43    -6.43
NEUT   # 14 Nevada                      66  72    -5.92    -0.08
AWAY   #104 Georgia                     76  74    +2.18    -0.18
AWAY   # 56 Vanderbilt                  65  81    -2.68   -13.32
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -5.60             0.248