predictions for South Dakota game

South Dakota's rating has slipped since the beginning of the season.  The Coyotes
are still in the upper half of Division I, but in the middle tier.  Not quite
cupcake status, but with predicted margins of 20+ points and probabilities in the
high 90s, percentage wise, today's game ought to be easier than other recent tilts.
Perhaps we'll find out if the closeness of those games has been due to Kansas
playing down to the level of the competition (see Stanford, New Mexico State games).

Dunkel and Seven Overtimes are the most pessimistic with margins of just 19 points.
Meanwhile, the Colley Matrix would seem to imply a 37 point margin, though I have
to admit that I have not yet calibrated the scale factor for this season's ratings.
They need to stabilize first, and we need about another game on average by all
Division I teams for them to become what I might consider "well connected".  Then
I can compare Colley's numbers with Sagarin's and determine the conversion factor
from rating value to points.  In the meantime, I'm using the scale factor from
last season.  The next most optimistic prediction comes from Sagarin's Recent Games
ratings, which imply a margin of almost 27 points.

Trends are not statistically significant, nor is the mental toughness value for
South Dakota.  Kansas has a significant positive mental toughness rating, which
means the Jayhawks play their best against the toughest competition.  South Dakota
does not fall into that category, so if Kansas plays down to the competition, the
margin might be only 13 points.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven; South Dakota
attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; South Dakota holds opponents to fewer points
per game and also holds opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage.  Then
again, South Dakota's opponents aren't exactly world-beaters.  The only upper tier
teams they've played are Baylor and Colorado.  They stayed within 6 points of Baylor.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Triston Simpson (guard)
Most points           Trey Burch-Manning (forward)
Most rebounds         Trey Burch-Manning (forward)
Most assists          Cody Kelley (guard)
Most steals           Trey Burch-Manning (forward)
Most blocks           Jack Stensgard (guard) / Stanley Umude (guard)
Most turnovers        Triston Simpson (guard)
Most fouls            Stanley Umude (guard)

Forward Tyler Hagedorn is out with plantar fasciitis.  Udoka Azubuike is still
recovering from his ankle sprain, and Silvio De Sousa is still being withheld
while his eligibility status is being reviewed.
                                                           9-0            6-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       South Dakota
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +22.96   82   59                #  7   #  4     #173   #289 
Sagarin Predictor      +22.42   81   59       99.8     #  9   #  4     #173   #289 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +25.43   83   57                #  2   #  4     #171   #289 
Sagarin Recent Games   +26.79   84   57                #  3   #  4     #183   #289 
Sagarin eigenvector    +25.32   83   58       96                                  
Massey                 +24.00   83   59                #  2   #  1     #193   #272 
Pomeroy                +21.97   81   59                #  3   #  7     #169   #285
Greenfield             +21.50   80   59                #  6   #  6     #163   #258
Dunkel                 +19.00   82   63                #  5            #160       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.50   80   59                                           
Real Time RPI          +26.00   90   64                #  1   #  1     #133   #288 
Real Time GAMER        +26.00   90   64       96.5     #  1   #  1     #133   #288 
Seven Overtimes        +19.00   80   61       95       #  4   #  4     #101   #251
ESPN BPI               +20.30                 96.2     #  8   # 14     #191   #292
Whitlock               +27.74                          #  2   #  1     #211   #317       
Colley Matrix          +37.03                          #  1   #  1     #251   #270
NCAA NET                                               #  5            #187
DPPI                                                                              
Dolphin Predictive    
CBN RPI                        
LRMC                           
common opponents                                             
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +24.2    83.2 59.8
scatter                  4.4     3.4  2.4

Here is Kansas' season, with the projected record remaining at 25-6, but
the only projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              92  87    -2.91    +7.91
HOME   # 97 Vermont                     84  68   +15.77    +0.23
HOME   #146 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.39    -7.39
NEUT   # 28 Marquette                   77  68    +4.95    +4.05
NEUT   # 12 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.38    +4.62
HOME   # 91 Stanford                    90  84   +15.48    -9.48
HOME   # 69 Wofford                     72  47   +13.52   +11.48
HOME   # 51 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.50    -8.50
HOME   # 24 Villanova                   74  71    +7.41    -4.41
HOME   #173 South Dakota                         +22.41             0.998
AWAY   # 50 Arizona State                         +4.95             0.699
HOME   #198 Eastern Michigan                     +24.02             0.994
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                              +6.70             0.760
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            +0.93             0.539
HOME   # 27 TCU                                   +7.69             0.792
AWAY   # 70 Baylor                                +7.14             0.774
HOME   # 30 Texas                                 +8.31             0.810
AWAY   # 52 West Virginia                         +5.11             0.705
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +7.33             0.780
AWAY   # 25 Kentucky                              +1.18             0.550
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 +1.91             0.580
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +4.28             0.674
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                          +2.60             0.608
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State                       +13.84             0.928
AWAY   # 27 TCU                                   +1.29             0.554
HOME   # 52 West Virginia                        +11.51             0.888
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -2.12             0.411
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                          +9.00             0.829
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State                        +7.44             0.784
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              +0.30             0.513
HOME   # 70 Baylor                               +13.54             0.924

Here is South Dakota's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        York College                83  58
HOME   #320 Northern Arizona            90  74   +12.98    +3.02
NEUT   #232 High Point                  56  60    +3.88    -7.88
NEUT   #256 Air Force                   62  65    +5.38    -8.38
NEUT   #233 UMBC                        58  52    +3.91    +2.09
AWAY   # 70 Baylor                      57  63   -12.07    +6.07
HOME   #199 CS Bakersfield              68  56    +4.84    +7.16
AWAY   # 56 Colorado                    58  82   -13.85   -10.15
HOME   #295 Kansas City(UMKC)           63  65   +10.85   -12.85
NAIA        Bellevue University         78  52
AWAY   #211 Colorado State              68  63    -0.65    +5.65
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -22.41             0.002