predictions for Villanova game

Readers from past seasons will already know this, but I hate early tips.
The main reason is that I can't really do a thorough job of checking the
various prognosticators until they've all posted their predictions, and
Dunkel doesn't tend to finish until after 3 a.m. Hawaii time.  Meanwhile,
the game tips at 7:00 a.m. Hawaii time, but to get the predictions posted
by a minimum of an hour before tip-off, I'd have to write this in the
roughly 3 a.m. to 6 a.m. window.  When am I supposed to sleep?

Rematch of Final Four teams?  Well, the names of the teams are the same,
but the teams themselves are quite different.  Both teams have lost key
players, but also return key players.  One of the key players that Kansas
returns won't play because of an ankle sprain.  Still, it's seen as a
revenge game of sorts.  No less a person than Devonte Graham called
Dedric Lawson and encouraged him to go get 'em.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Villanova has been a fair bit more inconsistent than Kansas.  The Wildcats
played almost 24 points below expectation against Michigan and almost 14
points above expectation against Oklahoma State.  Meanwhile, Kansas has
been within 10 points of expectation for all eight games.  Neither team
has a statistically significant trend.  Kansas, however, seems to play
its best against the higher ranked opponents, which would bode well for
today's game.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Colley is the most optimistic, favoring Kansas by almost 16 points.
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the most pessimistic, favoring Kansas
by only a tad over 3 points, but his other predictions average around
10 points.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six
of them; Villanova has a higher offensive rebound percentage and attempts
more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in four of them; Villanova holds opponents to fewer
points per game, grabs slightly more offensive rebounds per game, and commits
slightly fewer personal fouls per game.

Did I mention that I hate early tips?  Time to get some sleep.  At least a
little.  I'm not going to wait for Dunkel.

Oh, and I'll be on the road for the South Dakota game on Tuesday.  I'll try
to post the predictions, but no guarantee.  South Dakota has slipped into
the bottom half of Division I, approaching cupcake status.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Eric Paschall (forward)
most points        Phil Booth (guard)
most rebounds      Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree (forward)
most assists       Phil Booth (guard)
most steals        Collin Gillespie (guard)
most blocks        Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree (forward)
most turnovers     Eric Paschall (forward)
most fouls         Collin Gillespie (guard)

Villanova has no reported injuries.  Meanwhile, Udoka Azubuike is out
with an ankle sprain, and Silvio De Sousa will be still withheld from
competition until his eligibility status can be ascertained.

                                                           8-0            8-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Villanova
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +8.70   79   70                #  6   #  6     # 25   #111 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.27   78   70       78.9     #  8   #  6     # 25   #111 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.33   79   69                #  2   #  6     # 22   #111 
Sagarin Recent Games   +13.19   81   68                #  3   #  6     # 33   #111 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +3.42   76   72       63       
Massey                  +5.00   79   74       67       #  3   #  1     # 20   # 24
Pomeroy                 +8.45   76   67                #  2   # 13     # 20   #117
Greenfield              +8.00   76.5 68.5              #  8   #  5     # 25   # 36
Dunkel                                                 #  5            #  8                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                                
Real Time RPI           +9.00   90   81                #  1   #  1     #  3   # 12 
Real Time GAMER         +9.00   90   81       74.6     #  1   #  1     #  3   # 12 
Seven Overtimes        +13.00   80   67       91       #  4   #  7     # 87   # 76
DPPI                   +13.10   74   61       92       #  5   #  1     # 69   #110
ESPN BPI                +7.30                 76.2     #  8   # 19     # 16   # 99
Whitlock               +13.88                          #  3   #  1     # 46   # 58
Colley Matrix          +15.82                          #  1   #  1     # 22   # 59
NCAA NET                                               #  6            # 34
Dolphin Predictive      
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.8    79.9 70.7
scatter                  3.4     5.1  5.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is back to 25-6, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              92  87    -2.56    +7.56
HOME   # 90 Vermont                     84  68   +16.33    -0.33
HOME   #121 Louisiana                   89  76   +18.92    -5.92
NEUT   # 26 Marquette                   77  68    +5.26    +3.74
NEUT   # 11 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.44    +4.56
HOME   # 85 Stanford                    90  84   +15.56    -9.56
HOME   # 81 Wofford                     72  47   +15.00   +10.00
HOME   # 53 New Mexico State            63  60   +12.02    -9.02
HOME   # 25 Villanova                             +8.27             0.789
HOME   #179 South Dakota                         +23.57             0.994
AWAY   # 45 Arizona State                         +4.43             0.681
HOME   #197 Eastern Michigan                     +24.68             0.996
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma                              +7.20             0.777
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            +1.13             0.548
HOME   # 29 TCU                                   +8.75             0.823
AWAY   # 83 Baylor                                +9.04             0.831
HOME   # 42 Texas                                +10.66             0.871
AWAY   # 44 West Virginia                         +4.36             0.678
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +7.53             0.788
AWAY   # 30 Kentucky                              +2.45             0.602
AWAY   # 42 Texas                                 +4.26             0.674
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +5.60             0.724
AWAY   # 35 Kansas State                          +3.01             0.625
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State                       +13.73             0.927
AWAY   # 29 TCU                                   +2.35             0.598
HOME   # 44 West Virginia                        +10.76             0.873
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            -0.80             0.466
HOME   # 35 Kansas State                          +9.41             0.841
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State                        +7.33             0.781
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma                              +0.80             0.534
HOME   # 83 Baylor                               +15.44             0.949

Here is Villanova's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #315 Morgan State               100  77   +26.87    -3.87
HOME   #250 Quinnipiac                  86  53   +22.70   +10.30
HOME   #  4 Michigan                    46  73    -3.24   -23.76
HOME   #122 Furman                      68  76   +13.89   -21.89
NEUT   #237 Canisius                    83  56   +18.77    +8.23
NEUT   # 68 Oklahoma State              77  58    +5.46   +13.54
NEUT   # 22 Florida State               66  60    -0.81    +6.81
AWAY   #262 La Salle                    85  78   +16.87    -9.87
HOME   # 87 Temple                      69  59   +10.79    -0.79
HOME   # 88 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          70  58   +10.94    +1.06
AWAY   # 97 Pennsylvania                75  78    +5.24    -8.24
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -8.27             0.211