×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Projection for the Villanova Game
5 years 4 months ago #20099
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
KU is ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and Villanova is ranked 17th. In my opinion, Villanova should be ranked much lower. But that is not the consensus of the 39 computer polls. The composite computer ranking has Villanova at 22nd. 7Overtimes has them 69th. As I mentioned, I have them at 69th overall but my raw predictor has them at 57th.
You can see from KU's schedule below, we started out playing very consistently to projection and have become uch more inconsistent in the last 3 games. In the first 5 games we were on average 2.2 off of projection. In the last 3 games we have been 10.5 off of projection. Here are the key projections. When I do a projection I also do an adjustment if a starter is out for the game. In this case, Azubuike is out with a sprained ankle. The adjustment is -3.7 points to the spread. You can see from the season +/- that Dok has a delta of 0.21. Recall that the delta is the difference is scoring differential per minute between the player being in the game and on the bench. In other words, the Jayhawks outscore the opponent by 0.21 points more per minute with Dok in than with Dok out. Dok has played 142.3 minutes of 17.8 minutes per game. Multiplying 17.8 times 0.21 is 3.7 points. This is how much the loss of Dok should impact the Jayhawks. So with this adjustment the key projections are.
KU Score -- 74.1
Villanova Score -- 61.0
Margin -- KU by 13.1
Probability of Win for KU -- 91%
In the DPPI KU is ranked 5th overall, 9th in offense and 30th in defense. Villanova is ranked 69th overall, 80th in offense and 48th in defense. KU has played the toughest schedule in all of Division 11 and Villanova has played the 110th toughest SOS.
KU is 3 and 4 against Villanova while Coach Self is 2-4. Villanova has knocked Kansas out of the NCAA tourney twice in the last three seasons. Of course, both times they went on to become the National Champion. In some ways this is really just another game but in others it is an important game for Kansas. Certainly ESPN is building it up to be a blockbuster game. Let's hope KU dominates.
You can see from KU's schedule below, we started out playing very consistently to projection and have become uch more inconsistent in the last 3 games. In the first 5 games we were on average 2.2 off of projection. In the last 3 games we have been 10.5 off of projection. Here are the key projections. When I do a projection I also do an adjustment if a starter is out for the game. In this case, Azubuike is out with a sprained ankle. The adjustment is -3.7 points to the spread. You can see from the season +/- that Dok has a delta of 0.21. Recall that the delta is the difference is scoring differential per minute between the player being in the game and on the bench. In other words, the Jayhawks outscore the opponent by 0.21 points more per minute with Dok in than with Dok out. Dok has played 142.3 minutes of 17.8 minutes per game. Multiplying 17.8 times 0.21 is 3.7 points. This is how much the loss of Dok should impact the Jayhawks. So with this adjustment the key projections are.
KU Score -- 74.1
Villanova Score -- 61.0
Margin -- KU by 13.1
Probability of Win for KU -- 91%
In the DPPI KU is ranked 5th overall, 9th in offense and 30th in defense. Villanova is ranked 69th overall, 80th in offense and 48th in defense. KU has played the toughest schedule in all of Division 11 and Villanova has played the 110th toughest SOS.
KU is 3 and 4 against Villanova while Coach Self is 2-4. Villanova has knocked Kansas out of the NCAA tourney twice in the last three seasons. Of course, both times they went on to become the National Champion. In some ways this is really just another game but in others it is an important game for Kansas. Certainly ESPN is building it up to be a blockbuster game. Let's hope KU dominates.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: