predictions for New Mexico State game

Earlier in the season, I pointed out that there are no cupcakes on the
schedule.  If you're not ready to play, you'll lose.  The Wofford game
almost became another case in point.  Fortunately, the whole team woke
up with 11 minutes to play.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six
of them; New Mexico State has a higher offensive rebound percentage and a
lower turnover percentage.   Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in five of them; New Mexico State holds opponents to fewer points
per game and grabs more offensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       A. J. Harris (guard)
most points        A. J. Harris (guard)
most rebounds      Eli Chuha (forward)
most assists       Shunn Buchanan (guard)
most steals        Shunn Buchanan (guard)
most blocks        Johnny McCants (forward)
most turnovers     A. J. Harris (guard)
most fouls         Terrell Brown (guard) / Jabari Rice (guard)

New Mexico State has no reported injuries.  Meanwhile, Udoka Azubuike is
out with an ankle sprain, and Silvio De Sousa will be still withheld from
competition until his eligibility status can be ascertained.

                                                           7-0            7-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       New Mexico St
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +12.15   81   69                #  6   #  9     # 59   #208 
Sagarin Predictor      +11.55   81   70       89.7     #  9   #  9     # 59   #208 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +14.95   83   68                #  3   #  9     # 61   #208 
Sagarin Recent Games   +14.46   83   68                #  4   #  9     # 50   #208 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.83   84   67       91       
Massey                 +11.00   81   70       84       #  4   #  1     # 56   #152
Pomeroy                +14.54   81   66                #  2   # 10     # 93   #268
Greenfield             +14.50   81   66                #  8   #  3     # 77   #161
Dunkel                 +21.50   86   64                #  5            # 75                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +15.50   82   66.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +15.00   86   71                #  1   #  1     # 24   #239 
Real Time GAMER        +15.00   88   73       90.1     #  1   #  1     # 24   #239 
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   78   75       67       #  3   #  5     # 50   # 14
DPPI                   +16.40   75   59       95.2     #  5   #  2     # 73   #240
ESPN BPI               +14.90                 90.4     #  5   # 13     #127   #319
Whitlock               +14.83                          #  4   #  1     # 78   #215
Colley Matrix          +12.89                          #  1   #  1     # 53   #200
NCAA NET                                               #  9            # 99
Dolphin Predictive      
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +14.1    82.1 68.0
scatter                  3.7     3.3  3.9

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is back to 26-5, with
a projected loss at Texas Tech:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              92  87    -2.32    +7.32
HOME   # 89 Vermont                     84  68   +16.73    -0.73
HOME   #140 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.61    -7.61
NEUT   # 29 Marquette                   77  68    +6.20    +2.80
NEUT   # 13 Tennessee                   87  81    +2.54    +3.46
HOME   # 82 Stanford                    90  84   +15.81    -9.81
HOME   # 80 Wofford                     72  47   +15.51    +9.49
HOME   # 59 New Mexico State                     +13.16             0.897
HOME   # 22 Villanova                             +8.13             0.809
HOME   #167 South Dakota                         +22.83             0.993
AWAY   # 43 Arizona State                         +4.90             0.701
HOME   #197 Eastern Michigan                     +24.99             0.996
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +9.10             0.836
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            +1.75             0.575
HOME   # 31 TCU                                   +9.48             0.846
AWAY   # 81 Baylor                                +9.31             0.841
HOME   # 46 Texas                                +11.57             0.893
AWAY   # 44 West Virginia                         +5.05             0.706
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +8.15             0.809
AWAY   # 26 Kentucky                              +2.42             0.603
AWAY   # 46 Texas                                 +5.17             0.711
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +5.82             0.734
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                          +3.27             0.637
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma State                       +13.52             0.927
AWAY   # 31 TCU                                   +3.08             0.630
HOME   # 44 West Virginia                        +11.45             0.891
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            -0.58             0.475
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                          +9.67             0.850
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma State                        +7.12             0.778
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +2.70             0.614
HOME   # 81 Baylor                               +15.71             0.954

Here is New Mexico State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #210 North Dakota State          73  56   +15.73    +1.27
HOME   #199 UTEP                        96  69   +15.23   +11.77
HOME   # 47 Saint Mary's-Cal.           58  73    +1.62   -16.62
AWAY   #157 New Mexico                  98  94    +5.75    -1.75
Div2        Eastern New Mexico          92  65
AWAY   #199 UTEP                        62  58    +8.83    -4.83
HOME   #146 Washington State            69  63   +11.07    -5.07
HOME   #157 New Mexico                 100  65   +12.15   +22.85
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -13.16             0.100