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New Mexico State Projection

  • CorpusJayhawk
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2 days 5 hours ago #19969 by CorpusJayhawk
Kansas is now No. 5 in the DPPI with an offensive efficiency ranking of 5th and a defensive ranking of 38th. New Mexico State is ranked 73rd overall, 1 spot ahead of Wofford. They have an offensive ranking of 59th and a defensive ranking of 83rd. For comparison, as I said, the are 1 spot ahead of Wofford, 4 spots behind our next opponent, Villanova. Their offense is ranked only 5 places behind Marquette and their defense is ranked 3 spots ahead of Stanford. So you can see this is no cupcake.

Having said that, I project the final score of 75.2 to 58.8 with KU having a 95.2% probability of winning. Our worst game to date was Stanford where we played 12.9 points below projection. Other than that game we have been very consistent. The big question is what will the absence of Dok mean. We sure had a nice run in the 2nd half against Wofford with Dok out. But Dok brings a great offensive weapon in that when he is an option on offense, KU comes away with 1.25 points per possession. Will the team fill that void? I think that defensively we could be just as good or even better. Marcus will start and hopefully both KJ and David will get significant minutes. This is the first real adversity of the season. It will be telling to see how the team responds.

As an aside, thanks to Arizona St''s loss to Nevada last night, we are now a 4 point favorite with a 76% probability of winning that game.


Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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  • HawkErrant
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2 days 4 hours ago #19972 by HawkErrant
I'm going to go out on a limb and project that KU's offense is going to run more smoothly tonight than it has to date. As we have discussed recently, Dedric (despite his notable point and rebounding production so far this year) at times seems to have difficulty finding space in the post when playing alongside Dok. We saw an example of how the offense could flow better with Dok out in the second half of the Wofford game. (I will confess to being reminded of 2003 when Wayne went down and Jeff Graves took his spot, and very quickly the offense just seemed to run more smoothly as Jeff focused on defense and rebounding and the post opened up for Nick scoring.)

Helping the offense will be the better defense that the team can play with Dok out, especially on the perimeter (again, see Wofford). If anything close to that level of defense is played tonight, we will see the much discussed (but not appearing nearly as often as we'd like this year) "defense creating offense" for the Jayhawks.

In anticipation that the above will come to pass, and the axiom that more possessions leads to more points, I'm looking at KU scoring in the high 80s while holding NMSU to no more than 70.

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1 day 19 hours ago #19980 by HawkErrant
Well, so far (at the half) I’ve been right about NMSU’s points, but man, have I been wrong about KU’s offense.

DLaw getting stuffed every time he goes inside. No consistent outside shooting, either midrange or trey. Credit to NMSU D, but we’ve missed wide open shots as well. Making too many out of control drives leading to charges called against our guys (at least 4 so far).

Got to step it up in H2, KU!

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein

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  • CorpusJayhawk
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1 day 19 hours ago #19981 by CorpusJayhawk
No flow to the offense ad D Lawson looks overmatched. He needs to get his head back out of the nether region and into this game.

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