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predictions for Wofford game

  • asteroid
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1 week 5 days ago #19873 by asteroid
Earlier in the season, I pointed out that there are no cupcakes on the
schedule.  If you're not ready to play, you'll lose.  The Stanford game
almost became a case in point.  Fortunately, Vick woke up in the second
half.  But Wofford is even more dangerous than Stanford, especially
their three-point shooting.  Everybody better be awake at the start of
this game.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six
of them; Wofford has a higher average score margin and a higher offensive
rebound percentage.   Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in four of them; Wofford holds opponents to fewer points per game
as well as a lower effective field goal percentage, and also commits fewer
personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though there was supposed to be.   Wofford
was scheduled to play at Stanford, but the game was canceled due to
unhealthy air quality caused by the wildfires.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Fletcher Magee (guard)
most points        Fletcher Magee (guard)
most rebounds      Cameron Jackson (forward)
most assists       Storm Murphy (guard)
most steals        Cameron Jackson (forward)
most blocks        Cameron Jackson (forward) / Matthew Pegram (center)
most turnovers     Cameron Jackson (forward)
most fouls         Cameron Jackson (forward)

Guard Donovan Theme-Love missed the last two games with an ankle injury;
it's unknown whether he'll be ready to go for today's game.  Guard Trevor
Stumpe had back surgery and isn't expected back until later this month.
Again Silvio De Sousa will be withheld from competition until his
eligibility status can be ascertained.

                                                           6-0            6-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Wofford
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +13.83   85   71                #  9   #  5     # 68   # 64 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.12   84   71       94.9     # 11   #  5     # 66   # 64 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +17.65   87   69                #  4   #  5     # 75   # 64 
Sagarin Recent Games   +15.42   85   70                #  4   #  5     # 50   # 64 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.89   86   69       91       
Massey                 +15.00   84   69       91       #  4   #  1     # 68   #161
Pomeroy                +13.34   82   69                #  2   #  6     # 79   # 50
Greenfield             +16.00   83   67                # 10   #  3     # 60   # 63
Dunkel                  +9.50   80   72                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.00   83.5 67.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +21.00   90   69                #  1   #  1     #110   #156 
Real Time GAMER        +21.00   90   69       99.4     #  1   #  1     #110   #156 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   83   71       88       #  4   #  2     # 67   # 51
DPPI                   +10.80   81   70       90                       # 39
ESPN BPI               +11.70                 85.7     #  6   #  5     # 48   # 88
Whitlock               +10.21                          #  7   #  1     # 50   #217
Colley Matrix          +16.09                          #  1   #  3     # 96   #102
NCAA NET                                               # 10            # 54
Dolphin Predictive      
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +14.1    84.5 69.5
scatter                  3.6     3.0  1.4

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is down to 25-6, with
projected losses at Texas Tech and at Iowa State:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -3.08    +8.08
HOME   # 99 Vermont                     84  68   +16.23    -0.23
HOME   #147 Louisiana-Lafayette         89  76   +20.19    -7.19
NEUT   # 24 Marquette                   77  68    +4.35    +4.65
NEUT   # 14 Tennessee                   87  81    +1.67    +4.33
HOME   # 82 Stanford                    90  84   +14.92    -8.92
HOME   # 66 Wofford                              +13.12             0.949
HOME   # 79 New Mexico State                     +14.68             0.945
HOME   # 23 Villanova                             +7.49             0.793
HOME   #155 South Dakota                         +21.11             0.989
AWAY   # 45 Arizona State                         +3.55             0.651
HOME   #194 Eastern Michigan                     +23.89             0.995
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                              +8.30             0.817
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            -0.80             0.465
HOME   # 52 TCU                                  +11.65             0.898
AWAY   # 83 Baylor                                +8.59             0.825
HOME   # 42 Texas                                 +9.81             0.858
AWAY   # 46 West Virginia                         +3.66             0.655
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +5.60             0.729
AWAY   # 25 Kentucky                              +1.57             0.568
AWAY   # 42 Texas                                 +3.41             0.645
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            +3.06             0.631
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                          +2.48             0.607
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma State                       +12.03             0.905
AWAY   # 52 TCU                                   +5.25             0.716
HOME   # 46 West Virginia                        +10.06             0.864
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -3.34             0.358
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                          +8.88             0.833
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma State                        +5.63             0.730
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                              +1.90             0.582
HOME   # 83 Baylor                               +14.99             0.949

Here is Wofford's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #  7 North Carolina              67  78    -8.41    -2.59
AWAY   #263 High Point                  68  60   +11.70    -3.70
NCCAA       Carver Bible College        94  35
AWAY   # 82 Stanford                         game canceled
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    64  75    -8.02    -2.98
HOME   #348 Coppin State                99  65   +30.22    +3.78
Div2        Mars Hill                   97  46
AWAY   #112 South Carolina              81  61    +0.93   +19.07
HOME   #117 East Tennessee State(ETS    79  62    +7.67    +9.33
AWAY   # 11 Kansas                               -13.12             0.051
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, CorpusJayhawk, sasnak, Socalhawk, porthawk

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1 week 5 days ago #19876 by NotOstertag
Thanks Asteroid.

My takeaway from Stanford was that it was a bit of a trap game. Coming off of solid wins vs. Marquette and Tennessee in New York, I think that some of the guys looked at unranked Stanford coming to AFH and got complacent. Having escaped that one as narrowly as they did, and whatever calm, kind, supportive and caring words I'm sure HCBS had to share with the team over the past couple of days, nobody is going to arriving drowsy to this one.

Typically the "bounce back" game after a trap game (whether it's a W or an L) shows some response on the part of the team to whatever motivation was provided to them. I think that'll be the case tonight too.

Let's sit back and see how well they can defend the 3.

This one goes to 11 12 13 14!...and counting (sorry UCLA)

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1 week 4 days ago #19930 by JRhawk
Thanks for your predictions, Asteroid. I have a stupid question (must be, since no one else has asked) - how do you project KU's season record at 25-6 when you only project two losses - at ISU and at TT? I trust that your crystal ball didn't forsee Dok going down last night and thus KU losing the next 4 games too?
Thanks.

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago #19931 by CorpusJayhawk
JR, I can field this one for Asteroid. The projected total wins is a sum of the individual game probabilities. Say a team has 10 games and they are projected to win each game with a probability of winning of 60% for each game. The total projected wins would be 6 games with 4 losses. They would be favored in all 10 games. If you sum up the probabilities of Asteroids individual game projections it comes to 24.999 which obviously rounds to 25.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Last Edit: 1 week 4 days ago by CorpusJayhawk.
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant

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