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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Wofford game
- asteroid
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5 years 4 months ago #19873
by asteroid
Earlier in the season, I pointed out that there are no cupcakes on the
schedule. If you're not ready to play, you'll lose. The Stanford game
almost became a case in point. Fortunately, Vick woke up in the second
half. But Wofford is even more dangerous than Stanford, especially
their three-point shooting. Everybody better be awake at the start of
this game.
Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six
of them; Wofford has a higher average score margin and a higher offensive
rebound percentage. Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in four of them; Wofford holds opponents to fewer points per game
as well as a lower effective field goal percentage, and also commits fewer
personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though there was supposed to be. Wofford
was scheduled to play at Stanford, but the game was canceled due to
unhealthy air quality caused by the wildfires.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Fletcher Magee (guard)
most points Fletcher Magee (guard)
most rebounds Cameron Jackson (forward)
most assists Storm Murphy (guard)
most steals Cameron Jackson (forward)
most blocks Cameron Jackson (forward) / Matthew Pegram (center)
most turnovers Cameron Jackson (forward)
most fouls Cameron Jackson (forward)
Guard Donovan Theme-Love missed the last two games with an ankle injury;
it's unknown whether he'll be ready to go for today's game. Guard Trevor
Stumpe had back surgery and isn't expected back until later this month.
Again Silvio De Sousa will be withheld from competition until his
eligibility status can be ascertained.
6-0 6-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Wofford
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +13.83 85 71 # 9 # 5 # 68 # 64
Sagarin Predictor +13.12 84 71 94.9 # 11 # 5 # 66 # 64
Sagarin Golden Mean +17.65 87 69 # 4 # 5 # 75 # 64
Sagarin Recent Games +15.42 85 70 # 4 # 5 # 50 # 64
Sagarin Eigenvector +16.89 86 69 91
Massey +15.00 84 69 91 # 4 # 1 # 68 #161
Pomeroy +13.34 82 69 # 2 # 6 # 79 # 50
Greenfield +16.00 83 67 # 10 # 3 # 60 # 63
Dunkel +9.50 80 72
Vegas (via Dunkel) +16.00 83.5 67.5
Real Time RPI +21.00 90 69 # 1 # 1 #110 #156
Real Time GAMER +21.00 90 69 99.4 # 1 # 1 #110 #156
Seven Overtimes +12.00 83 71 88 # 4 # 2 # 67 # 51
DPPI +10.80 81 70 90 # 39
ESPN BPI +11.70 85.7 # 6 # 5 # 48 # 88
Whitlock +10.21 # 7 # 1 # 50 #217
Colley Matrix +16.09 # 1 # 3 # 96 #102
NCAA NET # 10 # 54
Dolphin Predictive
Crotistics
CBN RPI
LRMC
common opponents
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +14.1 84.5 69.5
scatter 3.6 3.0 1.4
Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is down to 25-6, with
projected losses at Texas Tech and at Iowa State:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 4 Michigan State 92 87 -3.08 +8.08
HOME # 99 Vermont 84 68 +16.23 -0.23
HOME #147 Louisiana-Lafayette 89 76 +20.19 -7.19
NEUT # 24 Marquette 77 68 +4.35 +4.65
NEUT # 14 Tennessee 87 81 +1.67 +4.33
HOME # 82 Stanford 90 84 +14.92 -8.92
HOME # 66 Wofford +13.12 0.949
HOME # 79 New Mexico State +14.68 0.945
HOME # 23 Villanova +7.49 0.793
HOME #155 South Dakota +21.11 0.989
AWAY # 45 Arizona State +3.55 0.651
HOME #194 Eastern Michigan +23.89 0.995
HOME # 28 Oklahoma +8.30 0.817
AWAY # 18 Iowa State -0.80 0.465
HOME # 52 TCU +11.65 0.898
AWAY # 83 Baylor +8.59 0.825
HOME # 42 Texas +9.81 0.858
AWAY # 46 West Virginia +3.66 0.655
HOME # 18 Iowa State +5.60 0.729
AWAY # 25 Kentucky +1.57 0.568
AWAY # 42 Texas +3.41 0.645
HOME # 10 Texas Tech +3.06 0.631
AWAY # 33 Kansas State +2.48 0.607
HOME # 58 Oklahoma State +12.03 0.905
AWAY # 52 TCU +5.25 0.716
HOME # 46 West Virginia +10.06 0.864
AWAY # 10 Texas Tech -3.34 0.358
HOME # 33 Kansas State +8.88 0.833
AWAY # 58 Oklahoma State +5.63 0.730
AWAY # 28 Oklahoma +1.90 0.582
HOME # 83 Baylor +14.99 0.949
Here is Wofford's season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 7 North Carolina 67 78 -8.41 -2.59
AWAY #263 High Point 68 60 +11.70 -3.70
NCCAA Carver Bible College 94 35
AWAY # 82 Stanford game canceled
AWAY # 28 Oklahoma 64 75 -8.02 -2.98
HOME #348 Coppin State 99 65 +30.22 +3.78
Div2 Mars Hill 97 46
AWAY #112 South Carolina 81 61 +0.93 +19.07
HOME #117 East Tennessee State(ETS 79 62 +7.67 +9.33
AWAY # 11 Kansas -13.12 0.051
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- NotOstertag
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5 years 4 months ago #19876
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Thanks Asteroid.
My takeaway from Stanford was that it was a bit of a trap game. Coming off of solid wins vs. Marquette and Tennessee in New York, I think that some of the guys looked at unranked Stanford coming to AFH and got complacent. Having escaped that one as narrowly as they did, and whatever calm, kind, supportive and caring words I'm sure HCBS had to share with the team over the past couple of days, nobody is going to arriving drowsy to this one.
Typically the "bounce back" game after a trap game (whether it's a W or an L) shows some response on the part of the team to whatever motivation was provided to them. I think that'll be the case tonight too.
Let's sit back and see how well they can defend the 3.
My takeaway from Stanford was that it was a bit of a trap game. Coming off of solid wins vs. Marquette and Tennessee in New York, I think that some of the guys looked at unranked Stanford coming to AFH and got complacent. Having escaped that one as narrowly as they did, and whatever calm, kind, supportive and caring words I'm sure HCBS had to share with the team over the past couple of days, nobody is going to arriving drowsy to this one.
Typically the "bounce back" game after a trap game (whether it's a W or an L) shows some response on the part of the team to whatever motivation was provided to them. I think that'll be the case tonight too.
Let's sit back and see how well they can defend the 3.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- JRhawk
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5 years 4 months ago #19930
by JRhawk
Thanks for your predictions, Asteroid. I have a stupid question (must be, since no one else has asked) - how do you project KU's season record at 25-6 when you only project two losses - at ISU and at TT? I trust that your crystal ball didn't forsee Dok going down last night and thus KU losing the next 4 games too?
Thanks.
Thanks.
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- CorpusJayhawk
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5 years 4 months ago - 5 years 4 months ago #19931
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
JR, I can field this one for Asteroid. The projected total wins is a sum of the individual game probabilities. Say a team has 10 games and they are projected to win each game with a probability of winning of 60% for each game. The total projected wins would be 6 games with 4 losses. They would be favored in all 10 games. If you sum up the probabilities of Asteroids individual game projections it comes to 24.999 which obviously rounds to 25.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Last Edit: 5 years 4 months ago by CorpusJayhawk.
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