predictions for Stanford game

The NCAA has started releasing their new NET rankings, but no numerical
ratings to show how much of a difference there might be between adjacent
teams in the rankings accompany them.  Based on what I read about NET
when it was first announced, there is no component that is based on a
team's performance in the previous season, which means that any such
rankings can look rather strange and be quite volatile before the teams
become well connected, so take the fact that Kansas is #13 in the latest
NET rankings with however many grains of salt you need.  And there is no
strength of schedule ranking associated with NET.  Kansas has no true road
wins yet, which may be hurting its NET ranking, nor will there be a chance
for one until the Arizona State game three weeks from now.

These next three games are all predicted to be double-digit victories for
Kansas, so the strength of schedule may sag a bit before the Villanova
game, but not by too much, as all three opponents rank in the top 100 of
Division I, at least according to Sagarin.

The various predictions are most consistent regarding the number of points
that Stanford will score, which is expected to be around 67.  There is more
than double the uncertainty regarding how many points Kansas will score.
Stanford plays low-scoring games, while Kansas plays high-scoring games.
If the Cardinal dictate the tempo, Kansas could be held to the low 80s,
but if the Jayhawks dictate the tempo, they could score in the low 90s.

The most pessimistic prediction comes from Sagarin's eigenvector analysis,
which predicts just a 12 point margin in favor of Kansas.  The most optimistic
prediction is courtesy of Dunkel, who has Kansas with a 23.5 point margin.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven
of them; Stanford attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.   Among
the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three, namely
the number of offensive rebounds per game, the number of defensive rebounds
per game, and the number of personal fouls per game; steals per game is a
wash.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kezie Okpala (forward)
most points        Kezie Okpala (forward)
most rebounds      Kezie Okpala (forward) / Oscar Da Silva (forward)
most assists       Daejon Davis (guard)
most steals        Daejon Davis (guard) / Cormac Ryan (guard)
most blocks        Oscar Da Silva (forward)
most turnovers     Daejon Davis (guard)
most fouls         Daejon Davis (guard)

Stanford has no reported injuries.  Again Silvio De Sousa will be withheld from
competition until his eligibility status can be ascertained.   Marcus Garrett
has been recovering from concussion-like symptoms.  He's resumed practicing, so
I'll assume he will be available, if needed, but might not see much action if
the Jayhawks don't need him, as is predicted to be the case by the score margins
shown below.

                                                           5-0            4-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Stanford
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +17.52   84   67                #  7   #  5     # 93   # 58 
Sagarin Predictor      +17.03   84   67       99.0     #  9   #  5     # 94   # 58 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +19.76   85   66                #  2   #  5     # 98   # 58 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.54   86   65                #  4   #  5     #103   # 58 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +12.35   82   69       85       
Massey                 +15.00   82   67       92       #  4   #  1     # 80   # 16
Pomeroy                +16.91   84   67                #  2   #  5     #109   # 51
Greenfield             +20.00   84.5 64.5              #  6   #  2     #109   # 38
Dunkel                 +23.50   92   68                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +18.50   83   64.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +21.00   89   68                #  1   #  2     # 92   # 21 
Real Time GAMER        +22.00   88   66       99.2     #  1   #  2     # 92   # 21 
Seven Overtimes        +16.00   83   67       92       #  2   #  5     #148   # 12
ESPN BPI               +22.20                 95.8     #  4   #  2     #151   #  7
Colley Matrix          +15.98                          #  1   #  6     #118   # 55
NCAA NET                                               # 13            #111
Dolphin Predictive      
Whitlock                
Crotistics
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +18.5    85.1 66.6
scatter                  3.1     2.9  1.4

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is still 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -1.78    +6.78
HOME   #102 Vermont                     84  68   +17.51    -1.51
HOME   #134 Louisiana-Lafayette         89  76   +19.91    -6.91
NEUT   # 28 Marquette                   77  68    +6.03    +2.97
NEUT   # 13 Tennessee                   87  81    +2.56    +3.44
HOME   # 94 Stanford                             +17.03             0.990
HOME   # 73 Wofford                              +15.16             0.960
HOME   # 82 New Mexico State                     +16.09             0.969
HOME   # 22 Villanova                             +7.34             0.802
HOME   #161 South Dakota                         +22.55             0.996
AWAY   # 40 Arizona State                         +4.18             0.686
HOME   #193 Eastern Michigan                     +24.97             0.998
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma                              +9.48             0.864
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            +0.27             0.512
HOME   # 53 TCU                                  +12.61             0.928
AWAY   # 78 Baylor                                +9.36             0.861
HOME   # 42 Texas                                +10.87             0.896
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia                         +5.34             0.732
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +6.67             0.780
AWAY   # 31 Kentucky                              +3.32             0.650
AWAY   # 42 Texas                                 +4.47             0.698
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            +3.28             0.648
AWAY   # 26 Kansas State                          +2.67             0.621
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma State                       +13.00             0.934
AWAY   # 53 TCU                                   +6.21             0.764
HOME   # 48 West Virginia                        +11.74             0.913
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -3.12             0.359
HOME   # 26 Kansas State                          +9.07             0.853
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma State                        +6.60             0.778
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma                              +3.08             0.639
HOME   # 78 Baylor                               +15.76             0.966

Here is Stanford's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #175 Seattle                     96  74    +9.84   +12.16
AWAY   #208 NC Wilmington               72  59    +5.62    +7.38
AWAY   #  8 North Carolina              72  90   -17.36    -0.64
HOME   # 73 Wofford                          game canceled
NEUT   # 14 Wisconsin                   46  62   -11.11    -4.89
NEUT   # 27 Florida                     49  72    -7.88   -15.12
NEUT   #220 Middle Tennessee            67  54    +9.40    +3.60
HOME   #244 Portland State              79  67   +14.08    -2.08
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -17.03             0.010