Updated DPPI

I am excited that I finally finished the subroutine to derive the offensive and defensive ratings. My DPPI is included in Ken Massey's composite which you can find here Massey Composite . Ken does a sort of comparison of the 60+ programs that submit to his site including KenPom, Sagarin and all the other big boys. Two years ago I finished 28th out of 60+. I continued to refine the program and last year I finished 18th. This season I am shooting for top 10. Not bad for one of the few guys who does it as a pure hobby. Last season I picked the Big 12 season (90 games) 82% correct. If you take away Oklahoma and Kansas St, I was 90% correct. Kansas St way over performed and Oklahoma way under performed. I hope to get at least 85% correct this season. I have reached convergence meaning there is some reasonable value in the connection to the teams although they will not be fully connected for another 2 weeks or so. Here are the teams to watch out for that are not getting much love right now from the pollsters.

Texas Tech - Hit the top 25 this week but could be a real sleeper. Great defensive team. Very weak schedule.
Nebraska - Another defensive team that looks very good in the preseason. Fairly weak schedule though. We'll know more when they play a couple tough teams.
Utah St - Weak schedule but a good offensive team. They could be for real.
Arizona St. - just missed the top 25 this week. Have played a nice schedule and are looking like another strong offense.

Here is my DPPI

I have Kentucky at 107. The composite of the 24 computers currently on Massey's site has them at 36th. My rating is the lowest of all computers. I would love to see the algorithm's of the other computers to see how they can rate them so highly. I have a sliding scale adjustment that reduces the weight of a result that is outside 1 standard deviation so their loss to Duke is reduced in weight. But their other results are not exactly great and they have played a really crappy schedule other than Duke. No matter how you slice it, they are overrated at 10 in the AP poll. I personally think that Oregon and Villanova are also overrated. All other teams are in the range.