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initial Big 12 projection

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4 years 1 month ago #1079 by asteroid
The two games played by Big 12 teams on Wednesday were the last to be played before conference play
gets underway this weekend.  The Sagarin ratings that include Wednesday's games are now out, so it's
a good time to look at the Big 12 conference projection.

                      Init.
Pred                  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins 
----  --------------  -----
#  2  Kansas          14.37
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70
#  4  West Virginia   13.69
# 29  Iowa State       9.68
# 31  Baylor           9.00
# 34  Texas            8.14
# 43  Texas Tech       7.13
# 46  Kansas State     6.98
# 92  Oklahoma State   4.48
#136  TCU              2.83

The first Big Monday of the season is shaping up to be a battle between the #1 and #2 teams in
Division I.  Oklahoma is #1 in the Sagarin Overall and Recent rankings, #2 in Golden Mean, and
#6 in Predictor.  Kansas is #1 in Golden Mean and #2 in Overall, Predictor, and Recent.  I use
Predictor for the projections, which explains why Kansas starts out in the top spot, which
reminds me of the following:

   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

West Virginia is #15 Overall, #10 in Golden Mean, and #16 in Recent, but way up there at #4 in
Predictor.  But they haven't played much of a schedule, so we'll see if they're deserving of
such a lofty ranking.  Tubby appears to have turned around Texas Tech; they're no longer projected
to be among the Bottom 2 with TCU.

Most Big 12 teams are underrated, but most are also not showing any signs of improvement, relative to other
teams.  So far, Texas Tech has played every game within 10 points of expectation, the best consistency in
the conference.  Meanwhile, Texas has some impressive victories, but also some puzzling losses, so the
Longhorns have the worst consistency rating; the loss of Ridley is unlikely to help matters.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +3.20    Texas Tech        6.52    Texas Tech      +1.71 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma State  +0.31 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma        +2.15    Kansas            7.41    Kansas          +0.77 +/- 0.70    Iowa State      +0.30 +/- 0.23
Kansas          +1.86    Oklahoma          8.77    Texas           +0.49 +/- 1.06    Oklahoma        +0.18 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech      +1.24    TCU               8.83    Oklahoma State  -0.18 +/- 0.93    Kansas State    +0.16 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      +0.54    Kansas State      9.42    Oklahoma        -0.21 +/- 0.88    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.34    Iowa State        9.61    Kansas State    -0.37 +/- 0.82    Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.20
Baylor          +0.33    West Virginia    10.61    West Virginia   -0.38 +/- 0.92    Baylor          -0.20 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State  -0.18    Oklahoma State   10.67    TCU             -0.62 +/- 0.75    Texas Tech      -0.21 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    -0.23    Baylor           10.94    Iowa State      -1.63 +/- 0.67    Texas           -0.40 +/- 0.30
TCU             -0.53    Texas            12.17    Baylor          -1.94 +/- 0.89    West Virginia   -0.49 +/- 0.25

Scoring is up this season, way up, thanks to the new rules.  The average Total Points is 143.95 this season,
compared to 133.24 last season.  As usual, Schedule Strengths are fairly low but will improve rapidly as
conference play accumulates.  In particular, TCU has played the 7th weakest schedule in all of Division I.
Baylor, surprisingly, hasn't done much better; the Bears may be in for a rude awakening starting this weekend.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        86.09    West Virginia   60.92    Iowa State      157.42    West Virginia   +24.17    Texas           76.46 ( 30)
West Virginia   85.08    Kansas State    62.50    Oklahoma        153.09    Oklahoma        +19.09    Kansas          74.58 ( 86)
Iowa State      84.92    Oklahoma State  64.33    Kansas          147.45    Kansas          +18.18    Oklahoma        74.28 ( 93)
Kansas          82.82    Kansas          64.64    West Virginia   146.00    Baylor          +13.45    Iowa State      73.15 (134)
Baylor          78.45    Baylor          65.00    Texas           144.17    Iowa State      +12.42    Texas Tech      72.68 (150)
Texas           75.00    TCU             65.83    Baylor          143.45    Kansas State     +9.50    Kansas State    69.53 (279)
Texas Tech      74.82    Texas Tech      65.91    Texas Tech      140.73    Texas Tech       +8.91    West Virginia   69.30 (281)
Kansas State    72.00    Oklahoma        67.00    TCU             137.50    Oklahoma State   +6.50    Oklahoma State  69.07 (288)
TCU             71.67    Texas           69.17    Oklahoma State  135.17    TCU              +5.83    Baylor          67.47 (328)
Oklahoma State  70.83    Iowa State      72.50    Kansas State    134.50    Texas            +5.83    TCU             65.11 (345)
The following user(s) said Thank You: CorpusJayhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, LSHawk, boulderhawk, JayhawkChef

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4 years 1 month ago #1088 by CorpusJayhawk
Great stuff as always David. I am pumped to go up against Sagarin. I designed the DPPI to be a pure predictive model. Sagarin is more or less the gold standard so I am hoping to compare favorably. We both have the Big 12 down to a three team race. I like your stat of comparing the consistency. I do a StDev to projected margin for each team and it was eye-opening. For all 351 teams it varied from 4 points to 18 points. The average was about 7.5. That prompted me to put an "outlier adjustment" into the DPPI to soften the impact of potentially anomalous games assuming that something non-predictive impacted those games (star player out sick, for instance).

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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4 years 1 month ago #1089 by hairyhawk
When I hear pundits talk about the Big XII race I hear about KU ISU and OU but hardly ever about WVU. This initial projection says they need to be taken seriously. They have always had the issue of winning away from home in conference and I expect that to continue a bit as Huggy's style relies on getting the calls to some degree. Hopefully our 2 point alignment will negate their pressure. OU is interesting because they can shoot the ball real well. I think we will put Wayne on Mr. Hield but we will see.

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4 years 1 month ago #1096 by CorpusJayhawk
The last 2 seasons we have split with West Virginia. In the last three seasons since West Virginia joined the Big 12, KU has lost 13 conference games (not counting Big 12 tourney). Twice each to Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas St., once each to Baylor, Iowa St., TCU and Texas. Our biggest nemesis is Oklahoma St.. We have lost once to them in each of the last three seasons. Texas Tech is the only Big 12 team not to defeat KU in the last three seasons. This could be that year if we don't take our "A" game to Lubbock. But based on my DPPI the Mountaineers are the team to beat this year. I am not sure why they are not getting more National love. The Massey Composite (which will soon include the DPPI) has West Virginia 13th overall but I can just about guarantee they will be top 10 in next week's composite. Mark my word, watch out for West Virginia.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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