initial Big 12 projection

The two games played by Big 12 teams on Wednesday were the last to be played before conference play
gets underway this weekend.  The Sagarin ratings that include Wednesday's games are now out, so it's
a good time to look at the Big 12 conference projection.

                      Init.
Pred                  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins 
----  --------------  -----
#  2  Kansas          14.37
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70
#  4  West Virginia   13.69
# 29  Iowa State       9.68
# 31  Baylor           9.00
# 34  Texas            8.14
# 43  Texas Tech       7.13
# 46  Kansas State     6.98
# 92  Oklahoma State   4.48
#136  TCU              2.83

The first Big Monday of the season is shaping up to be a battle between the #1 and #2 teams in
Division I.  Oklahoma is #1 in the Sagarin Overall and Recent rankings, #2 in Golden Mean, and
#6 in Predictor.  Kansas is #1 in Golden Mean and #2 in Overall, Predictor, and Recent.  I use
Predictor for the projections, which explains why Kansas starts out in the top spot, which
reminds me of the following:

   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

West Virginia is #15 Overall, #10 in Golden Mean, and #16 in Recent, but way up there at #4 in
Predictor.  But they haven't played much of a schedule, so we'll see if they're deserving of
such a lofty ranking.  Tubby appears to have turned around Texas Tech; they're no longer projected
to be among the Bottom 2 with TCU.

Most Big 12 teams are underrated, but most are also not showing any signs of improvement, relative to other
teams.  So far, Texas Tech has played every game within 10 points of expectation, the best consistency in
the conference.  Meanwhile, Texas has some impressive victories, but also some puzzling losses, so the
Longhorns have the worst consistency rating; the loss of Ridley is unlikely to help matters.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +3.20    Texas Tech        6.52    Texas Tech      +1.71 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma State  +0.31 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma        +2.15    Kansas            7.41    Kansas          +0.77 +/- 0.70    Iowa State      +0.30 +/- 0.23
Kansas          +1.86    Oklahoma          8.77    Texas           +0.49 +/- 1.06    Oklahoma        +0.18 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech      +1.24    TCU               8.83    Oklahoma State  -0.18 +/- 0.93    Kansas State    +0.16 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      +0.54    Kansas State      9.42    Oklahoma        -0.21 +/- 0.88    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.34    Iowa State        9.61    Kansas State    -0.37 +/- 0.82    Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.20
Baylor          +0.33    West Virginia    10.61    West Virginia   -0.38 +/- 0.92    Baylor          -0.20 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State  -0.18    Oklahoma State   10.67    TCU             -0.62 +/- 0.75    Texas Tech      -0.21 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    -0.23    Baylor           10.94    Iowa State      -1.63 +/- 0.67    Texas           -0.40 +/- 0.30
TCU             -0.53    Texas            12.17    Baylor          -1.94 +/- 0.89    West Virginia   -0.49 +/- 0.25

Scoring is up this season, way up, thanks to the new rules.  The average Total Points is 143.95 this season,
compared to 133.24 last season.  As usual, Schedule Strengths are fairly low but will improve rapidly as
conference play accumulates.  In particular, TCU has played the 7th weakest schedule in all of Division I.
Baylor, surprisingly, hasn't done much better; the Bears may be in for a rude awakening starting this weekend.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        86.09    West Virginia   60.92    Iowa State      157.42    West Virginia   +24.17    Texas           76.46 ( 30)
West Virginia   85.08    Kansas State    62.50    Oklahoma        153.09    Oklahoma        +19.09    Kansas          74.58 ( 86)
Iowa State      84.92    Oklahoma State  64.33    Kansas          147.45    Kansas          +18.18    Oklahoma        74.28 ( 93)
Kansas          82.82    Kansas          64.64    West Virginia   146.00    Baylor          +13.45    Iowa State      73.15 (134)
Baylor          78.45    Baylor          65.00    Texas           144.17    Iowa State      +12.42    Texas Tech      72.68 (150)
Texas           75.00    TCU             65.83    Baylor          143.45    Kansas State     +9.50    Kansas State    69.53 (279)
Texas Tech      74.82    Texas Tech      65.91    Texas Tech      140.73    Texas Tech       +8.91    West Virginia   69.30 (281)
Kansas State    72.00    Oklahoma        67.00    TCU             137.50    Oklahoma State   +6.50    Oklahoma State  69.07 (288)
TCU             71.67    Texas           69.17    Oklahoma State  135.17    TCU              +5.83    Baylor          67.47 (328)
Oklahoma State  70.83    Iowa State      72.50    Kansas State    134.50    Texas            +5.83    TCU             65.11 (345)