predictions for Marquette game

I wonder what it is about Sagarin's eigenvector analysis that expects Kansas
to lose by 4 points, when all his other methods predict Kansas to win by at
least 5 points?  Marquette is highly ranked, but has lost to an even higher
ranked Indiana squad.  Everybody else is picking Kansas to win, except for
Real Time, who has Kansas playing an away game rather than a neutral court
game (in case you were wondering why I said previously that Real Time isn't
ready for Prime Time).

Colley came on board this season, but his top team is Georgia Southern, with
LSU second, Virginia Tech third, and Nevada fourth.  Ah, the volatility of
early season rankings.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five;
Marquette has a larger average score margin, grabs more total rebounds per
game, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two, namely the number of
offensive rebounds per game and the number of steals per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents for today's game.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Marcus Howard (guard)
most points        Marcus Howard (guard)
most rebounds      Sam Hauser (guard)
most assists       Marcus Howard (guard)
most steals        Sam Hauser (guard)
most blocks        Theo John (forward)
most turnovers     Marcus Howard (guard)
most fouls         Theo John (forward)

Guard Koby McEwen will not play this season for eligibility reasons.  Forward
Ike Eke is out with a back injury.  Guard Greg Elliott will not play while
recovering from thumb surgery.  And again Silvio De Sousa will be withheld
from competition until his eligibility status can be ascertained.

                                                           3-0            3-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Marquette
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +5.79   80   74                #  7   # 54     # 25   #277 
Sagarin Predictor       +4.85   79   75       71.7     # 11   # 54     # 23   #277 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.06   81   73                #  2   # 54     # 30   #277 
Sagarin Recent Games   +10.89   83   72                #  8   # 54     # 80   #277 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -4.33   75   79       34       
Massey                  +9.00   85   76       78       #  5   #  3     # 58   #123
Pomeroy                 +9.30   84   74                #  2   # 82     # 35   #295
Greenfield              +8.50   84   75.5              #  5   #  4     # 31   # 49
Dunkel                 +10.50   86   76                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   83   74                                           
Real Time RPI           -2.00   78   80                #  3   #  5     # 47   # 40 
Real Time GAMER         -4.00   77   81       41.5     #  3   #  2     # 74   #164 
Dolphin Predictive      
ESPN BPI                +3.60                 53.8     #  3   # 53     # 15   #142
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   78   75       62       # 12   # 61     # 93   #320
Whitlock                
Colley Matrix           +8.61                          # 11   #112     # 88   #235
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                             
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +5.4    81.0 75.7
scatter                  5.1     3.4  2.7

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is now 25-6, with a
projected loss at Texas Tech, who just knocked off Nebraska, which had been
Sagarin's #1 team (Tech is now #5, two spots ahead of Kansas; just ahead
of Kansas at #6 is Michigan State, a team that Kansas defeated):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -2.27    +7.27
HOME   # 78 Vermont                     84  68   +15.36    +0.64
HOME   #125 Louisiana-Lafayette         89  76   +19.03    -6.03
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                             +4.85             0.717
NEUT   # 17 Tennessee                             +1.94             0.585
NEUT   # 30 Louisville                            +5.94             0.743
HOME   # 61 Stanford                             +12.93             0.923
HOME   # 99 Wofford                              +16.87             0.968
HOME   # 70 New Mexico State                     +14.51             0.945
HOME   # 59 Villanova                            +12.86             0.921
HOME   #164 South Dakota                         +22.22             0.993
AWAY   # 25 Arizona State                         +2.21             0.596
HOME   #191 Eastern Michigan                     +23.85             0.996
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +8.90             0.836
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            +3.53             0.651
HOME   #105 TCU                                  +17.44             0.972
AWAY   # 84 Baylor                                +9.40             0.849
HOME   # 36 Texas                                 +9.84             0.861
AWAY   # 57 West Virginia                         +6.27             0.755
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                            +9.93             0.863
AWAY   # 48 Kentucky                              +5.33             0.721
AWAY   # 36 Texas                                 +3.44             0.647
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                            +2.22             0.596
AWAY   # 24 Kansas State                          +2.05             0.589
HOME   # 79 Oklahoma State                       +15.52             0.956
AWAY   #105 TCU                                  +11.04             0.888
HOME   # 57 West Virginia                        +12.67             0.918
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                            -4.18             0.323
HOME   # 24 Kansas State                          +8.45             0.824
AWAY   # 79 Oklahoma State                        +9.12             0.842
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +2.50             0.608
HOME   # 84 Baylor                               +15.80             0.959

Here is Marquette's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #169 UMBC                        67  42   +17.60    +7.40
HOME   #313 Bethune-Cookman             92  59   +27.71    +5.29
AWAY   #  8 Indiana                     73  96    -8.58   -14.42
HOME   #247 Presbyterian College        74  55   +22.78    -3.78
NEUT   # 11 Kansas                                -4.85             0.283