predictions for Louisiana game

On paper, it's the second-easiest game of the season.  But with only one game
against Division I competition under its belt, do we really know that much
about Louisiana?  They showed they could score against a Division II opponent.
ESPN's BPI has them as high as #77 (Real Time has them slightly higher, but
I don't consider Real Time to be ready for Prime Time).

Seven Overtimes is the most pessimistic with just a 12 point margin, while
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the most optimistic with a 29 point margin.

Massey's web site isn't responding at the moment, so I'll have to go without
him, as I cannot wait today.

Among Greenfield's eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all eight.
Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six; Louisiana
commits fewer fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
Like the Vermont game, today's game is part of the NIT.  Vermont is playing
Louisville today, while Louisiana played Tennessee.  We'll get one of those
two opponents in the NIT fourth game next week, so we'll have a common
opponent for that contest.  But no common opponent for today's game.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Malik Marquetti (guard)
most points        Jakeenan Gant (forward)
most rebounds      Malik Marquetti (guard)
most assists       Marcus Stroman (guard)
most steals        Marcus Stroman (guard)
most blocks        Jakeenan Gant (forward)
most turnovers     Malik Marquetti (guard) / Marcus Stroman (guard)
most fouls         Justin Miller (forward)

Forward R. J. Gladney has not yet been cleared to play from concussion protocol,
though I suppose that could happen before today's game.  Forward Kobe Julien is
out for the season with a torn ACL.  And again Silvio De Sousa will be withheld
from competition until his eligibility status can be ascertained.

                                                           2-0            1-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Louisiana
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +24.70   88   63                #  8   # 41     #175   #  6 
Sagarin Predictor      +24.23   88   63       98.6     #  9   # 41     #181   #  6 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +26.49   89   62                #  6   # 41     #185   #  6 
Sagarin Recent Games   +27.79   89   62                #  3   # 41     #187   #  6 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +28.68   90   61       97
Massey                                                 #      #        #      #   
Pomeroy                +19.98   91   71                #  1   # 63     #124   #  2
Greenfield             +21.00   91   70                #  4   #  8     # 98   # 45
Dunkel                 +27.50   94   67                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +22.00   91   69                                           
Real Time RPI          +18.00   89   71                #  3   #  2     # 74   #164 
Real Time GAMER        +19.00   89   70       86.7     #  3   #  2     # 74   #164 
Dolphin Predictive      
ESPN BPI               +18.40                 92.1     #  2   # 47     # 77   # 24
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   83   71       81       # 12   # 38     #268   #  6
Whitlock                
Colley Matrix           
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                             
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +22.2    89.3 66.7
scatter                  4.8     2.6  4.1

Here is Kansas' season; the season record projection is still 26-5 (though
note that Kansas is now favored in every game):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 22 Michigan State              92  87    +4.41    +0.59
HOME   # 60 Vermont                     84  68   +13.43    +2.57
HOME   #181 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +24.23             0.986
NEUT   # 21 Marquette                             +4.30             0.652
NEUT   # 20 Tennessee (or next)                   +4.11             0.646
NEUT   # 31 Louisville (or previous)              +7.42             0.750
HOME   # 45 Stanford                             +11.94             0.861
HOME   # 91 Wofford                              +16.99             0.939
HOME   # 67 New Mexico State                     +14.65             0.909
HOME   #104 Villanova                            +17.90             0.948
HOME   #106 South Dakota                         +18.27             0.952
AWAY   # 24 Arizona State                         +2.85             0.602
HOME   #216 Eastern Michigan                     +26.77             0.993
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +9.45             0.805
AWAY   # 57 Iowa State                            +6.79             0.731
HOME   #107 TCU                                  +18.28             0.952
AWAY   #168 Baylor                               +17.09             0.940
HOME   # 75 Texas                                +15.52             0.921
AWAY   # 56 West Virginia                         +6.63             0.727
HOME   # 57 Iowa State                           +13.19             0.885
AWAY   # 40 Kentucky                              +5.23             0.683
AWAY   # 75 Texas                                 +9.12             0.796
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                           +11.53             0.853
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                          +9.50             0.806
HOME   #115 Oklahoma State                       +19.47             0.962
AWAY   #107 TCU                                  +11.88             0.860
HOME   # 56 West Virginia                        +13.03             0.882
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +5.13             0.680
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                         +15.90             0.926
AWAY   #115 Oklahoma State                       +13.07             0.883
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +3.05             0.609
HOME   #168 Baylor                               +23.49             0.984

Here is Louisiana's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        U. Virgin Islands          121  80
AWAY   # 20 Tennessee                   65  87   -20.12    -1.88
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -24.23             0.014