On the Eve of Conference Play -- THE ODDS!!

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 3 months ago #1071 by CorpusJayhawk

The odds below are based on the DPPI for individual games. West Virginia has steadily moved up and now sits as the favorite in what is becoming a three team race for the Big 12. West Virginia now has almost 60% probability of winning at least a share of the Big 12 compared to Kansas' odd at 42%. There is about a 23% chance the Big 12 will have co-champions and a 77% chance one team will win outright. KU looks to have 13 wins now with a better than even money to move up from there rather than down. West Virginia is looking like a 14 game winner at this point. Texas Tech is a real wildcard. They have steadily improved as well. The DPPI does not have a mental toughness adjustment yet and I am debating whether to include one or not. It would potentially have an impact on these odds and based on the data to date it would not bode well for KU since KU has a statistically significant negative mental toughness at this point based almost solely on the Michigan State loss. I am also refining the Home Court adjustment. It is currently calculating to 0.85 points which doesn't seem right. OU is ranked highly but the DPPI says West Virginia is the tougher foe with Texas Tech having the strongest trend with a chance to become a real spoiler.

-Projected Conference Wins-		
Team        	Wins	
-----------	------	
West Virginia	13.8	
Kansas       	13.3	
Oklahoma     	12.6	
Iowa St.     	9.9	
Baylor       	8.6	
Texas Tech   	8.4	
Texas        	7.6	
Kansas St.   	7.0	
Oklahoma St. 	4.6	
TCU          	4.2

--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
West Virginia	39.1%	57.2%
Kansas      	25.6%	42.0%
Oklahoma    	11.2%	22.6%
Iowa St.    	1.0%	3.0%
Baylor      	0.2%	0.7%
Texas Tech  	0.1%	0.6%
Texas       	0.0%	0.2%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.1%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	73.8%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	56.6%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	77.9%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	44.1%
TCU         	Lawrence    	83.4%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	88.7%
Texas       	Lawrence    	81.1%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	67.3%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	83.4%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	89.9%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	48.8%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	52.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	90.8%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	80.5%
Baylor      	Waco        	73.8%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	77.9%
Texas       	Austin      	77.9%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	71.4%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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