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predictions for Michigan State game

  • asteroid
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1 week 5 days ago #19590 by asteroid
With nothing from this season to go on, one wonders how some of the computer
ratings generate predictions for the first game of the season.  Yet some have
done just that.  Going strictly on the basis of last season seems foolhardy.
Pomeroy and ESPN's BPI both have followed the human pollsters and crowned
Kansas the #1 team, so they seem to be taking some of the changes in the teams
into account.   Meanwhile, Sagarin has Michigan State one spot higher than
Kansas, leading to the Jayhawks being the underdog, though by a tiny fraction
of a point.  Kansas has a lot of new faces, yet several of those new faces have
a year of experience in the program, so this team isn't quite as new as those
faces might otherwise indicate.

Dunkel has the most favorable prediction for today's game.  Meanwhile,
Greenfield mimics Vegas, as usual.

Massey and Greenfield both have ratings for a team's future schedule strength,
and Kansas ranks as having the toughest schedule in all of Division I according
to both.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, obviously.  I'm using this section as a placeholder
for future use.

Players to Watch
================
Well, there are no leading scorers or rebounders for either team right now, so yet
another placeholder.  Jack Hoiberg has an eye injury and Brock Washington has an
ankle injury; both are considered questionable for today's game.  Meanwhile, Ochai
Agbaji will apparently be taking a redshirt, while Silvio De Sousa will be held out
over eligibility concerns.

                                                           0-0            0-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Michigan State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -0.04                 49.8     #  5   #        #  4   #    
Sagarin Predictor       -0.04                 49.8     #  5   #        #  4   #    
Sagarin Golden Mean     -0.04                 49.8     #  5   #        #  4   #    
Sagarin Recent Games    -0.04                 49.8     #  5   #        #  4   #    
Massey                  +3.00   76   73       61.0     #  3   #  1     # 14   # 11  future schedule
Pomeroy                 +6.44   78   72                #  1   #        # 13   #   
Greenfield              +5.50   80.5 75                #  2   #  1     # 10   #  5  future schedule
Dunkel                 +13.00   82   69                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.50   81   75.5                                         
Real Time RPI           +7.00   80   73                #  3   #  2     #  7   # 88 
Real Time GAMER         +9.00   82   73                #  3   #  2     #  7   # 88 
Dolphin Predictive      
ESPN BPI                +4.50                 66.7     #  1   #        # 16   #   
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   77   73       61.0
Whitlock                
Colley Matrix           
CBN RPI                 
LRMC                    
common opponents                                             
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +4.44 +/- 3.97

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State                        -0.05             0.498
HOME   # 95 Vermont                              +17.81             0.947
HOME   #156 Louisiana-Lafayette                  +22.48             0.980
NEUT   # 12 Marquette                             +3.72             0.632
NEUT   # 18 Tennessee (or next entry)             +4.99             0.675
NEUT   # 47 Louisville (or previous entry)        +8.21             0.772
HOME   # 90 Stanford                             +17.31             0.942
HOME   #126 Wofford                              +20.68             0.970
HOME   # 65 New Mexico State                     +14.23             0.902
HOME   #  2 Villanova                             +0.59             0.521
HOME   #116 South Dakota                         +20.17             0.967
AWAY   # 66 Arizona State                         +7.90             0.764
HOME   #124 Eastern Michigan                     +20.65             0.970
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma                             +10.87             0.838
AWAY   # 31 Iowa State                            +3.67             0.631
HOME   # 23 TCU                                   +8.76             0.787
AWAY   # 42 Baylor                                +4.54             0.660
HOME   # 24 Texas                                 +8.87             0.790
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia                         -0.77             0.472
HOME   # 31 Iowa State                           +10.07             0.820
AWAY   #  8 Kentucky                              -0.88             0.468
AWAY   # 24 Texas                                 +2.47             0.589
HOME   # 28 Texas Tech                            +9.50             0.806
AWAY   # 13 Kansas State                          +0.69             0.525
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State                       +13.06             0.882
AWAY   # 23 TCU                                   +2.36             0.585
HOME   #  9 West Virginia                         +5.63             0.696
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                            +3.10             0.611
HOME   # 13 Kansas State                          +7.09             0.740
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State                        +6.66             0.728
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma                              +4.47             0.658
HOME   # 42 Baylor                               +10.94             0.840

Here is Michigan State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  5 Kansas                                +0.05             0.502
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, porthawk, mtnMan, KMT, jaythawk1

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1 week 5 days ago #19593 by KMT
Thanks Asteroid - do you have any data on who is the most reliable predictor on games at the beginning of the year?

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  • asteroid
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1 week 5 days ago #19594 by asteroid
No.

But I'll note that it's hard to beat Vegas.

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