End of the One and Done

An article today in the NewYork Times about the plan by the NBA to offer select high school players contracts for $125k per year to go straight to the G League. They can have sponsorship contracts as well. They cannot be called up to the NBA (obviously since they have no team). After 1 year they can enter the draft. No word on how many players will be offered this deal. It probably won’t end the one-and-done but it will greatly minimize it.

I remember reading about something similar a few months ago as an idea to end the OAD era. I like it.

Right now, for most OADs, the entire purpose of college is to showcase their basketball skills, get some national exposure, and get in front of NBA scouts. While the G League won't get them the national attention, it will get them playing in front of scouts. Opening up the doors to sponsors is also a big deal. Maybe Nike won't throw millions at them, but if you've got a potential star player coming up, they can pad their salary by a few hundred grand and give them a nice lifestyle.

The key is to make the G League as attractive of more attractive than college. The ability to earn a couple hundred grand (pay + sponsorship) in the year between high school and the NBA sounds like a compelling offer.

NotO, my inclination is to think this is a very good thing. I loathe the OAD. The OAD has become a progressively more significant issue. You can see from the table below that in the last two years fully half of the 1st rounders have been freshmen. Going back to 2010 this has more or less been increasing. If the goal is to offer the HS seniors who are likely 1st rounders, we could see between 10 and 15 players offered the G-League option. I personally would love to see more than less. I wish I had the HS rankings to see how many of the 1st rounders were in the top 15 HS rankings. If they offered 15 they could all but eliminate the OAD and in my opinion, not impact the "enjoyability" of college basketball. In fact, one could argue it will be even more enjoyable. It would refocus on building a program versus hoping to get lucky in any particular recruiting class. Players like Tyrel Reed, Travis Releford, Kevin Young, Jeff Withey and similar players would become the backbone of the elite college programs.

NBA Draft Table

I agree 100% that this could be a very good thing. In fact, I see no downside to the G-League becoming a viable option for these kids, and I do think that finding the balance where the money is enough to make it a good option, but not SO much money that it'll suck ALL of the top recruits away. That's why I think $125k plus as many endorsements as you can drum up is a good start. If a kid is a "potential" OAD, but not 100% sure, he may still opt for college. Meanwhile, MOST college players will come knowing that they have 4 years to develop and potentially make the league.

What the G-League lacks is fan base. We've got the Westchester Knicks near me and I've been to one game. The style of play looks a lot like 5 guys on the floor interviewing for a job, or clearly working on specific things. So it's either ball-hogging "look at me" ball, or watching a big guy working on his left handed baby-hook that's not ready for prime time. What it's NOT is a band of brothers all working together to win games and championships. But that's ok. It's a cheap night out, and probably more fun for NBA fans who would rather see dunks and 1-on-1 ball than defense, set plays, and good coaching.

College is all about churn. The team is different every year as players enroll and graduate, but that "churn" also includes fans. Every year, about 6000 people graduate from KU and a lot of them are basketball fans. So there's hundreds of thousands of us who haven't been in school there for a LONG time, but who still connect to the team because it represents part of our lives while we WERE there. As they say, college fans root for the name on the FRONT of the jersey as much as the name on the back.

So let's assume that the G-League option is successful, and most of the top 50 recruits go that direction, and college teams are all comprised of high school grads who were ranked #50 and higher. So what? You end up with a team (forgive me for guessing on these guys HS rankings) that has guys like Lightfoot, Releford, Haase, Ellis, and a bunch of other guys who came in and developed over time. Maybe you lose a few superstars, but to most people watching, the level of play would be exactly the same (or at least indiscernible) as before this option existed.

And you'd still have guys like Frank Mason and Devonte Graham showing up and surprising everybody.