predictions for UC Irvine game

One last tune-up before launching into the rugged Big 12 conference schedule.
The only remaining game easier than today's game is the home contest with TCU
(the home contest with Oklahoma State has a larger projected margin than today's
game, but a lower probability of winning).  UC Irvine has played four top-tier
teams, but the Anteaters have lost to all of them.  They've won the rest of
their games, which happen to include one Division III opponent and a Division II
UC San Diego, not to be confused with Division I San Diego.  Against the Division I
opponents, their record is 8-4.  Their claim to fame is having the tallest team in
Division I, including a 7 foot 6 inch center by the name of Mamadou Ndiaye.  It
will be interesting to see how Self handles size; I'm expecting that we'll use
speed to attack, and perhaps we'll see more attempts from deep than at the rim to
avoid the fly swatter.  Shots at the rim would most likely come in transition when
we can beat the Anteaters down the court.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 17.7 point margin, with a 98.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  That's surprisingly high considering that Irvine is a
top-tier opponent.  Kansas has been playing 1.8 points above expectation,
while Irvine has been playing 0.5 points above expectation, which means that
the margin could be 19.0 points.  Kansas is back to having a positive trend,
while Irvine has a negative trend, though neither is statistically significant.
Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings; Irvine's is slightly
statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas increases
to 23.6 points.  Kansas has not played any game below expectation by enough to
lose today's game, while Irvine has not played any game above expectation by
enough to win today's game.  Theoretically, that means Kansas has a 100 percent
chance of winning the game.  Well, that's statistics of small numbers to a
certain extent.  The computer ratings provide a more accurate probability in
this case.

Massey gives Kansas a 15 point margin with a 92 percent probability of
winning the game.  He is predicting a final score of 78 to 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 13.3 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 4.8 units, which combine to a 18.1 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 70.7 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 12.8 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and the margin becomes 16.2 points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 80,
UC Irvine 64.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 80 to 63.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in seven of eight categories; Irvine grabs more total rebounds per game, which
shouldn't come as a surprise considering how tall they are.  Among the key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of seven categories,
namely opponents points per game, steals per game, and personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 13 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 16
points, so he is picking Irvine against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 137, the implied final score is Kansas 75, UC Irvine 62.  Meanwhile, he claims
the Vegas total is 142.5, which would imply a final score of Kansas 79, UC Irvine 63.
Judging from the tabulated win-loss numbers, Dunkel's rankings are way out-of-date.

Real Time gives Kansas an 18.0 point margin, with an 87.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 88, UC Irvine 70.  That's
the highest point total of the bunch.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 16.5 point margin with a 91.7 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 80, UC Irvine 63.

What is Colley smoking?  Texas Tech is now his #6 team!  Kansas is down at #18.
Tech's best win is against #29 Little Rock, while our best win is supposedly
#40 Oregon State.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 19.8 units, but we need to calibrate that
differential.  Previously, Whitlock had Oklahoma on top with a rating of 64.28
and Central Connecticut at the bottom with a rating of 0.00, while Sagarin had
those two teams with ratings of 93.91 and 52.66, so the differential for Whitlock
is 64.28 while the differential for Sagarin is 41.25, suggesting a scaling factor
of 0.642, so the 19.8 unit differential becomes 12.7 points on a neutral court.
Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 16.2 points.
I'll plan on tweaking the scaling before conference play begins.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 11.0; add Sagarin's
3.4 point home court advantage, and the margin for Kansas becomes 14.4 points.

LMRC is not yet available for this season.  I'm showing their rankings for Kansas
and UC Irvine from last season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin, corresponding to a 99 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 79 to 64.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 15.2 point margin.

The Davis Performance Predictor Index (I prefer "Davis Predictive Power Index")
says that Kansas will beat Irvine 84 to 59, but that was from a week ago.  I
don't know how often CorpusJayhawk plans to update the index and when, and where
it will be made available.  The 25 point margin is easily the largest presented
here.  

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  At 7 foot 6 inches, it's hard not to see center Mamadou Ndiaye,
who scores the most points, grabs the most rebounds, and blocks the most shots,
while also committing the most turnovers and the most personal fouls; he's the key
to the game.  Guard Alex Young dishes the most assists per game.  Guard Luke Nelson
plays the most minutes and is their leading thief.

The average of the various prognostications is 17.2 points in favor of Kansas; the
range is 13 (Dunkel) to 25 (Davis) points.  The projected final score would be
Kansas 79, UC Irvine 62.  In fact, with the exception of Real Time, which is known
for its extremism, and the new DPPI (Dippy), all the Irvine scores predictions fall
between 62 and 64.  Again with the exception of Real Time and Dippy, all the Kansas
score predictions fall between 75 and 80.

Oh, and the Anteaters are apparently in awe of Allen Field House:

https://twitter.com/UCImbb/status/681620381019471872/photo/1

Rock Chalk!  And Happy New Year!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  3   # 91   #  4   #  3   #  4   +1.8    7.5   +0.66 +/- 0.85   -0.07 +/- 0.20
UC Irvine      # 86   # 95   # 87   # 85   # 85   +0.5    8.2   -0.07 +/- 0.72   -0.36 +/- 0.28
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  # 21   #  2   #112   #  1  #  3    # 14    #  4   #145   # 24   #135
UC Irvine      # 77  # 88   # 85   # 70   #122  #113    # 90    # 82   #126   # 59   #107
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  8   #  8   #  4   # 13   # 20   #  6   #  6   0.953   10-1
UC Irvine      # 68   # 69   # 86   # 59   # 55   # 72   # 71   0.339   10-4
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 18  #110    #  6  # 84    # 13  #113    # 10  #  1    #  4  # 18    #  4  # 22
UC Irvine      # 84  #132    #114  #197    #107  #141    # 90  #149    #105  # 75    # 71  #125

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #319 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.39    +0.61
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    -0.97    -5.03
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 50 UCLA                        92  73   +11.64    +7.36
NEUT   #  8 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +1.54    +5.46
HOME   #277 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.15    +0.85
HOME   # 90 Harvard                     75  69   +18.38   -12.38
HOME   #253 Holy Cross                  92  59   +30.23    +2.77
HOME   # 61 Oregon State                82  67   +15.84    -0.84
HOME   #187 Montana                     88  46   +25.92   +16.08
AWAY   # 72 San Diego State             70  57    +9.75    +3.25
HOME   # 87 UC Irvine                            +17.72             0.988
HOME   # 30 Baylor                               +10.55             0.869
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                              +3.91             0.684
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                            +7.45             0.850
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -2.70             0.385
HOME   #130 TCU                                  +21.22             0.995
AWAY   # 97 Oklahoma State                       +12.13             0.906
HOME   # 33 Texas                                +12.20             0.880
AWAY   # 25 Iowa State                            +2.20             0.605
HOME   # 28 Kentucky                              +9.69             0.848
HOME   # 59 Kansas State                         +15.68             0.973
AWAY   #130 TCU                                  +14.34             0.958
HOME   #  6 West Virginia                         +4.18             0.675
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -2.97             0.358
HOME   # 97 Oklahoma State                       +19.01             0.981
AWAY   # 59 Kansas State                          +8.80             0.860
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                                +3.67             0.652
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                           +14.33             0.977
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +5.32             0.696
HOME   # 25 Iowa State                            +9.08             0.863

Here is UC Irvine's season to-date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        UC San Diego                89  73
HOME   #202 Loyola Marymount            77  53   +12.34   +11.66
AWAY   #158 Central Florida(UCF)        61  60    +2.45    -1.45
HOME   #230 Santa Clara                 79  61   +14.28    +3.72
NEUT   # 77 Boise State                 64  71    -0.67    -6.33
NEUT   #165 Boston College              80  67    +6.78    +6.22
NEUT   # 53 Evansville                  56  75    -2.51   -16.49
AWAY   #243 Pacific                     70  67    +8.29    -5.29
AWAY   # 16 Saint Mary's-Cal.           60  70   -13.50    +3.50
AWAY   #135 Utah State                  73  63    +0.29    +9.71
AWAY   # 36 Oregon                      63  78    -8.68    -6.32
Div3        Chapman                     65  51
NEUT   #229 Sam Houston State           63  53   +10.78    -0.78
NEUT   #219 Norfolk State               80  62    +9.88    +8.12
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                               -17.72             0.012