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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Villanova game
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7 years 5 months ago #18165
by asteroid
Survive and advance.
Villanova is playing their third consecutive Big 12 opponent. Although the
Wildcats' schedule is decent (the Big East consists of top tier teams, added
to a handful of top tier non-conference opponents), the highest rated team
they've played is #9 West Virginia. Kansas at #6 represents their toughest
test this season. Of course, Villianova at #1 also represents Kansas'
toughest test this season, though the Jayhawks did play #2 Duke recently.
And Villnova is only 1 point stronger than Duke, according to the Sagarin
Predictor ratings.
At least with the Duke game, common opponents favored Kansas, as did a few of
the usual prognosticators. The problem is that none of the usual indicators
favors Kansas in Saturday's Final Four contest. A win by Kansas would qualify
as an upset. Maybe not a huge one, but an upset nevertheless. Villanova is
the overall #2 seed, while Kansas is the overall #3 seed, so it's the game
featuring the top two remaining teams. It'll have a national championship
flavor to it, even though there is one more game after that, featuring
whoever survives the decimated other side of the bracket.
But is Kansas now underrated, based on the recent emergence of Newman, Vick's
return to early season form, and the development of DeSousa as a legitimate
backup to Azubuike? Maybe so, but Vegas apparently doesn't think it'll help
that much. Curiously, Vegas favors Villanova by more than Sagarin Predictor
does.
Villanova is a legit opponent. They have a higher performance relative to
Predictor rating, they're more consistent, they have a positive trend, and
they have a positive mental toughness rating:
Kansas Villanova
performance +0.32 +1.30
inconsistency 12.36 10.41
trend -0.15 +0.05 neither is statistically significant
mental toughness -0.40 +0.06
These make the Wildcats a 7 to 8 point favorite.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two, namely
assists per game and offensive rebound percentage. Among the seven key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in three, namely offensive rebounds per game, blocks
per game, and personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, namely Penn, Seton Hall, West Virginia, and Texas
Tech, one of which Villanova has played twice (Seton Hall), one of which Kansas has
played twice (Texas Tech), and one of which Kansas has played three times (West
Virginia), giving us eight scores to compare:
KU +16 Penn neutral (+16 neutral court)
Vill +28 Penn at home (+25 neutral court)
KU -9 Vill neutral ( -9 neutral court)
KU +4 SH neutral ( +4 neutral court) KU +4 SH neutral ( +4 neutral court)
Vill +16 SH at home (+13 neutral court) Vill +1 SH on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU -9 Vill neutral ( -9 neutral court) KU 0 Vill neutral ( 0 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court) KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
Vill +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court) Vill +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU -7 Vill neutral ( -7 neutral court) KU -4 Vill neutral ( -4 neutral court)
KU +11 WVU neutral (+11 neutral court)
Vill +12 WVU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU -1 Vill neutral ( -1 neutral court)
KU +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
Vill +12 TTU neutral (+12 neutral court) Vill +12 TTU neutral (+12 neutral court)
KU -7 Vill neutral ( -7 neutral court) KU -27 Vill neutral (-27 neutral court)
None of the comparisons favor Kansas, seven favor Villanova, and one is a wash. The
average is 8.0 points in favor of Villanova, but with a scatter of 8.4 points. The
Seton Hall road game went to overtime, so if you use the margin at the end of regulation
instead, it brings the average down to 7.9 points, not a significant difference.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Mikal Bridges guard
Leading scorer Jalen Brunson guard
Leading rebounder Omari Spellman forward
Most assists Jalen Brunson guard
Most steals Mikal Bridges guard
Most blocks Omari Spellman forward
Most turnovers Donte DiVincenzo guard
Most fouls Eric Paschall forward
The various prognostications unanimously favor Villanova, and the scatter in the
predicted margins is rather small. The most favorable for Kansas is Sagarin's
Elo rating method, which is based mainly on winning and losing; margin doesn't
matter.
31-7 34-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Villanova
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall -3.72 75 79 # 3 # 4 # 1 # 21
Sagarin Predictor -3.67 76 79 37.4 # 6 # 4 # 1 # 21
Sagarin Golden Mean -3.89 75 79 # 6 # 4 # 1 # 21
Sagarin Recent Games -4.00 75 79 # 5 # 4 # 2 # 21
Sagarin Off-Def Meth -5.27 77 82
Sagarin Combo -3.07 76 79 # 3 # 5 # 1 # 19
Sagarin Elo -0.65 77 78 # 3 # 5 # 2 # 19
Sagarin Blue -5.21 75 80 # 6 # 5 # 1 # 19
performance adjust -4.43 75 80
trend adjust -7.45 74 81
Massey -6.00 77 83 28.0 # 3 # 2 # 1 # 7
Pomeroy -6.04 72 79 # 8 # 2 # 1 # 16
Greenfield -5.50 75 80.5 # 7 # 2 # 1 # 5
Dunkel -7.00 71 78 # 11 # 2
Vegas (via Dunkel) -5.00 75 80
Real Time RPI # 3 # 2 # 2 # 25
Real Time GAMER # 3 # 2 # 2 # 25
Dolphin Predictive -5.44 77 82 32.4 # 8 # 2 # 1 # 4
ESPN BPI -6.50 27.1 # 7 # 4 # 1 # 28
Seven Overtimes -2.00 74 76 43.0 # 3 # 3 # 1 # 35
Whitlock -4.91 # 8 # 4 # 1 # 27
DPPI
Colley Matrix -1.07 # 3 # 5 # 2 # 33
CBN RPI # 3 # 2 # 2 # 19
LRMC # 9 # 2 # 1 # 20
common opponents -8.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -4.71 +/- 1.94
Here is Kansas' season, with a potential future opponent, if the Tournament
plays out according to seed:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #211 Tennessee State 92 56 +26.43 +9.57
NEUT # 14 Kentucky 65 61 +3.88 +0.12
HOME # 88 South Dakota State 98 64 +16.57 +17.43
HOME #242 Texas Southern 114 71 +28.05 +14.95
HOME #162 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +22.78 +20.22
HOME #119 Toledo 96 58 +19.64 +18.36
NEUT # 45 Syracuse 76 60 +8.18 +7.82
HOME # 95 Washington 65 74 +17.33 -26.33
HOME # 42 Arizona State 85 95 +11.29 -21.29
AWAY # 67 Nebraska 73 72 +7.77 -6.77
HOME #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +30.28 +14.72
AWAY # 81 Stanford 75 54 +9.64 +11.36
AWAY # 34 Texas 92 86 +3.81 +2.19
HOME # 12 Texas Tech 73 85 +6.04 -18.04
AWAY # 19 TCU 88 84 +1.98 +2.02
HOME # 82 Iowa State 83 78 +16.07 -11.07
HOME # 43 Kansas State 73 72 +11.30 -10.30
AWAY # 9 West Virginia 71 66 -1.82 +6.82
HOME # 27 Baylor 70 67 +9.42 -6.42
AWAY # 37 Oklahoma 80 85 +4.06 -9.06
HOME # 28 Texas A&M 79 68 +9.51 +1.49
AWAY # 43 Kansas State 70 56 +4.94 +9.06
HOME # 48 Oklahoma State 79 84 +12.27 -17.27
HOME # 19 TCU 71 64 +8.34 -1.34
AWAY # 27 Baylor 64 80 +3.06 -19.06
AWAY # 82 Iowa State 83 77 +9.71 -3.71
HOME # 9 West Virginia 77 69 +4.54 +3.46
HOME # 37 Oklahoma 104 74 +10.42 +19.58
AWAY # 12 Texas Tech 74 72 -0.32 +2.32
HOME # 34 Texas 80 70 +10.17 -0.17
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma State 64 82 +5.91 -23.91
NEUT # 48 Oklahoma State 82 68 +9.09 +4.91
NEUT # 43 Kansas State 83 67 +8.12 +7.88
NEUT # 9 West Virginia 81 70 +1.36 +9.64
NEUT #121 Pennsylvania 76 60 +16.60 -0.60
NEUT # 26 Seton Hall 83 79 +5.96 -1.96
NEUT # 20 Clemson 80 76 +5.19 -1.19 cumulative
NEUT # 2 Duke 85 81 -2.65 +6.65 probability
NEUT # 1 Villanova -3.67 0.374 0.374
NEUT # 10 Michigan +2.65 0.590 0.221
Here is Villanova's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #208 Columbia 75 60 +29.85 -14.85
HOME #213 Nicholls State 113 77 +30.21 +5.79
NEUT #285 Lafayette 104 57 +31.46 +15.54
NEUT # 68 Western Kentucky 66 58 +14.93 -6.93
NEUT # 17 Tennessee 85 76 +8.59 +0.41
NEUT #115 Northern Iowa 64 50 +19.76 -5.76
HOME #121 Pennsylvania 90 62 +23.45 +4.55
AWAY #107 Saint Joseph's-Pa. 94 53 +15.76 +25.24
NEUT # 11 Gonzaga 88 72 +6.46 +9.54
HOME #132 La Salle 77 68 +24.88 -15.88
AWAY # 86 Temple 87 67 +13.73 +6.27
NEUT #150 Hofstra 95 71 +22.39 +1.61
AWAY #109 DePaul 103 85 +15.94 +2.06
AWAY # 25 Butler 93 101 +6.16 -14.16
HOME # 52 Marquette 100 90 +16.28 -6.28
HOME # 13 Xavier-Ohio 89 65 +10.08 +13.92
AWAY # 69 St. John's 78 71 +11.85 -4.85
AWAY # 91 Georgetown 88 56 +14.46 +17.54
AWAY #130 Connecticut 81 61 +18.23 +1.77
HOME # 56 Providence 89 69 +16.92 +3.08
AWAY # 52 Marquette 85 82 +9.92 -6.92
HOME # 23 Creighton 98 78 +12.43 +7.57
HOME # 26 Seton Hall 92 76 +12.81 +3.19
HOME # 69 St. John's 75 79 +18.21 -22.21
HOME # 25 Butler 86 75 +12.52 -1.52
AWAY # 56 Providence 71 76 +10.56 -15.56
AWAY # 13 Xavier-Ohio 95 79 +3.72 +12.28
HOME #109 DePaul 93 62 +22.30 +8.70
AWAY # 23 Creighton 83 89 +6.07 -12.07 overtime
AWAY # 26 Seton Hall 69 68 +6.45 -5.45 overtime
HOME # 91 Georgetown 97 73 +20.82 +3.18
NEUT # 52 Marquette 94 70 +13.10 +10.90
NEUT # 25 Butler 87 68 +9.34 +9.66
NEUT # 56 Providence 76 66 +13.74 -3.74 overtime
NEUT #194 Radford 87 61 +25.88 +0.12
NEUT # 49 Alabama 81 58 +12.80 +10.20
NEUT # 9 West Virginia 90 78 +5.03 +6.97
NEUT # 12 Texas Tech 71 59 +6.53 +5.47
NEUT # 6 Kansas +3.67 0.626
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7 years 5 months ago #18167
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
KU by 3
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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- asteroid
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7 years 5 months ago #18173
by asteroid
That would require Kansas to play 6.67 points above expectation, which has happened 13 times this season, which is a 33 percent chance out of 39 games. Note that the Jayhawks just barely missed out on that against Duke, playing 6.65 points above expectation (counting overtime; sometimes I think computer ratings ought to be based on just regulation).
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7 years 5 months ago #18179
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
A note on the Vegas odds (and a review for everyone who already knows this).
Vegas odds are specifically designed for professional bookies to keep the action even. In other words, every bookie NEEDs to bring in enough losing bets to pay off the winners. Bookies take a percentage of the money bet on something as a commission called the "vig". For professional bookies this is their primary source of income. This essentially puts them in a neutral financial position where they'll make money no matter who wins.
In regard to KU/Villanova, the casinos want there to be an even amount bet on each team. To influence this, they'll set up the spread (and predict that Villanova will win by 5 points). If, however, more people continue to bet on Villanova, the oddsmakers might increase the spread to get more money coming in for Kansas. Conversely, if more money is coming in on the Kansas ledger, they'll adjust the spread in the other direction.
It's interesting since computer rankings (sagarin, massey, RPI, etc.) are all based on formulas and use data from past performances to predict the future. Vegas uses capitalism and democracy based on how gamblers "vote" with their money. So while the computer models are very stable over time, Vegas has the ability to reflect realities that don't appear in the data. For example, if 3 of Vilanova's starters fall down the stairs and break their ankles between now and gametime, the computer models won't reflect that, but the Vegas odds would certainly change instantly.
Vegas odds are specifically designed for professional bookies to keep the action even. In other words, every bookie NEEDs to bring in enough losing bets to pay off the winners. Bookies take a percentage of the money bet on something as a commission called the "vig". For professional bookies this is their primary source of income. This essentially puts them in a neutral financial position where they'll make money no matter who wins.
In regard to KU/Villanova, the casinos want there to be an even amount bet on each team. To influence this, they'll set up the spread (and predict that Villanova will win by 5 points). If, however, more people continue to bet on Villanova, the oddsmakers might increase the spread to get more money coming in for Kansas. Conversely, if more money is coming in on the Kansas ledger, they'll adjust the spread in the other direction.
It's interesting since computer rankings (sagarin, massey, RPI, etc.) are all based on formulas and use data from past performances to predict the future. Vegas uses capitalism and democracy based on how gamblers "vote" with their money. So while the computer models are very stable over time, Vegas has the ability to reflect realities that don't appear in the data. For example, if 3 of Vilanova's starters fall down the stairs and break their ankles between now and gametime, the computer models won't reflect that, but the Vegas odds would certainly change instantly.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- USAF Jayhawk
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7 years 5 months ago #18210
by USAF Jayhawk
All true, but my experience is that the bookies have a pretty darn good track record at calling the spread. Lot's of stories about how a meaningless shot at the end flipped the spread.
In 2010 KU played in the Las Vegas Invitational. We killed Ohio (98–41) whereas Arizona barely squeaked by their opponent (Utah?). Bookies put the subsequent spread on the championship game at KU-8.5. Tons of KU fans (including yours truly) poured money on KU thinking easy money. KU them gave up an uncontested baseline-to-baseline layup to win 87-79 (that's 8 points for those bad at arithmetic). The collective groan from a thousand KU fans was actually kinda funny. My thought leaving was the the bookies had this down pretty good...
In 2010 KU played in the Las Vegas Invitational. We killed Ohio (98–41) whereas Arizona barely squeaked by their opponent (Utah?). Bookies put the subsequent spread on the championship game at KU-8.5. Tons of KU fans (including yours truly) poured money on KU thinking easy money. KU them gave up an uncontested baseline-to-baseline layup to win 87-79 (that's 8 points for those bad at arithmetic). The collective groan from a thousand KU fans was actually kinda funny. My thought leaving was the the bookies had this down pretty good...
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7 years 5 months ago #18216
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Bookie darwinism in action. If you're good at it, you call the spread accurately and run a profitable organization. If not, you're out of business in a hurry.
As a "free market capitalist" kind of guy, this doesn't surprise me at all.
As a "free market capitalist" kind of guy, this doesn't surprise me at all.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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