predictions for Duke game

Survive and advance.

I'm having difficulty understanding Massey's prediction.  He has Kansas ranked two
spots higher than Duke, yet Kansas is a 2 point underdog.  That might make sense
if it was a home game for Duke, but it's a neutral court game, and if anything,
proximity to Lawrence ought to give Kansas the crowd advantage.  So shouldn't the
higher ranked team be the one predicted to win?

Duke's trend is +0.04 +/- 0.19 points per game, which is statistically insignificant.
Kansas' trend is -0.19 +/- 0.19 points per game, which has only marginal statistical
significance.  Duke's mental toughness value is -0.31 +/- 0.23, while Kansas' mental
toughness value is -0.47 +/- 0.26, so both have some statistical significance to them,
and it means that both teams underperform against tough opponents.

Duke played almost 7 points below expecation in its most recent game against Syracuse,
while Kansas played about 1 point below expectation against Clemson.  That's three
consecutive below expectation games for Kansas, so we're due for an above expectation
game.

Duke's inconsistency is 11.8 points, while it's 12.5 points for Kansas, though it's
been MUCH smaller for the last six games.

Vick seems to be back to his early-season form, while Newman is finally playing to
his potential.  If Svi has a good shooting game, I like our chances.

For some peculiar reason, Seven Overtimes has a prediction up for a game on Monday,
but not for the two games on Sunday.  I'm not going to wait for them.

All the best teams from the other side of the bracket have been eliminated, making
the regional final and Final Four semifinal the two most difficult remaining games.
Make it to the championship game, and Kansas would be favored.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two, namely
effective field goal percent and turnover percentage.  Among the seven key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just one, namely personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Texas, Clemson, and Syracuse, one of which
Kansas has played twice (Texas), and one of which Duke has played twice (Syracuse),
giving us five scores to compare:

KU   +10 Tex  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU    +6 Tex  on road ( +9 neutral court)
Duke  +7 Tex  neutral ( +7 neutral court)     Duke  +7 Tex  neutral ( +7 neutral court)
KU     0 Duke neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU    +2 Duke neutral ( +2 neutral court)

KU    +4 Clem neutral ( +4 neutral court)
Duke  +9 Clem on road (+12 neutral court)
KU    -8 Duke neutral ( -8 neutral court)

KU   +16 Syr  neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU   +16 Syr  neutral (+16 neutral court)
Duke +16 Syr  at home (+13 neutral court)     Duke  +4 Syr  neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU    +3 Duke neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +12 Duke neutral (+12 neutral court)

Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, one favors Duke, and one is a wash.  The average
is 1.8 points in favor of Kansas.  It should be noted that the Duke game with Texas
went to overtime, so if you make that a 0 instead of a +7, then the average becomes
4.6 points in favor of Kansas.  I'm using this latter value in the table below.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Grayson Allen             guard
Leading scorer        Marvin Bagley III         forward
Leading rebounder     Marvin Bagley III         forward
Most assists          Trevon Duval              guard
Most steals           Grayson Allen             guard
Most blocks           Wendell Carter Jr.        forward
Most turnovers        Trevon Duval              guard
Most fouls            Wendell Carter Jr.        forward
Most trippings        Grayson Allen             guard
Most flops            Grayson Allen             guard
Most hair dye         Mike Krzyzewski           coach

                                                          29-7           29-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Duke
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -2.30   75   78                #  3   #  4     #  2   # 22 
Sagarin Predictor       -2.89   75   78       40.6     #  6   #  4     #  2   # 22 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -2.40   75   78                #  6   #  4     #  2   # 22 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.71   78   75                #  6   #  4     # 12   # 22 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    -3.82   77   81                                           
Sagarin Combo           +1.17   77   76                #  3   #  5     #  4   # 24
Sagarin Elo             +4.57   79   74                #  3   #  5     #  8   # 24
Sagarin Blue            -3.60   75   78                #  6   #  5     #  2   # 24
performance adjust      -3.51   75   78            
trend adjust            -5.81   74   79            
Massey                  -2.00   77   79       44.0     #  3   #  2     #  5   # 17 
Pomeroy                 -3.94   73   77                #  9   #  5     #  3   # 17
Greenfield              -3.00   76   79                #  7   #  3     #  2   #  4
Dunkel                  -1.50   80   81                # 11            #  5       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   76   79                                           
Real Time RPI             .                            #  3   #  3     #  6   # 23 
Real Time GAMER           .                            #  3   #  3     #  6   # 23 
Dolphin Predictive      -4.14   77   82       36.4     #  8   #  4     #  2   #  3
ESPN BPI                -3.60                 36.8     #  7   #  6     #  3   # 20
Seven Overtimes           .                            #  4   #  6     #  3   # 19
Whitlock                -2.92                          #  8   #  4     #  3   # 11       
DPPI                    -7.50                                                     
Colley Matrix           +2.41                          #  3   #  5     #  5   # 26
CBN RPI                                                #  3   #  2     #  4   # 20
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     #  3   # 18
common opponents        +4.60                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -1.90 +/- 3.30

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents, if the Tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.34    +9.66
NEUT   # 14 Kentucky                    65  61    +3.77    +0.23
HOME   # 88 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.48   +17.52
HOME   #242 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.96   +15.04
HOME   #161 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.68   +20.32
HOME   #119 Toledo                      96  58   +19.52   +18.48
NEUT   # 45 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.07    +7.93
HOME   # 95 Washington                  65  74   +17.24   -26.24
HOME   # 43 Arizona State               85  95   +11.18   -21.18
AWAY   # 67 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.68    -6.68
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.18   +14.82
AWAY   # 81 Stanford                    75  54    +9.54   +11.46
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       92  86    +3.67    +2.33
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.81   -17.81
AWAY   # 19 TCU                         88  84    +1.83    +2.17
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.93   -10.93
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                73  72   +10.77    -9.77
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -1.95    +6.95
HOME   # 27 Baylor                      70  67    +9.29    -6.29
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.92    -8.92
HOME   # 28 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.41    +1.59
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                70  56    +4.41    +9.59
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.13   -17.13
HOME   # 19 TCU                         71  64    +8.19    -1.19
AWAY   # 27 Baylor                      64  80    +2.93   -18.93
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.57    -3.57
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.41    +3.59
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                   104  74   +10.28   +19.72
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.55    +2.55
HOME   # 34 Texas                       80  70   +10.03    -0.03
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.77   -23.77
NEUT   # 48 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.95    +5.05
NEUT   # 41 Kansas State                83  67    +7.59    +8.41
NEUT   #  9 West Virginia               81  70    +1.23    +9.77
NEUT   #121 Pennsylvania                76  60   +16.51    -0.51
NEUT   # 26 Seton Hall                  83  79    +5.87    -1.87            cumulative
NEUT   # 20 Clemson                     80  76    +5.10    -1.10            probability
NEUT   #  2 Duke                                  -2.89             0.406   0.406
NEUT   #  1 Villanova                             -3.64             0.379   0.154
NEUT   # 10 Michigan                              +2.58             0.587   0.090

Here is Duke's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 Elon                        97  68   +29.84    -0.84
HOME   #112 Utah Valley                 99  69   +21.81    +8.19
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              88  81    +2.51    +4.49
HOME   #325 Southern U.                 78  61   +37.09   -20.09
HOME   #104 Furman                      92  63   +21.13    +7.87
NEUT   #184 Portland State              99  81   +23.93    -5.93
NEUT   # 34 Texas                       85  78    +9.74    -2.74
NEUT   # 16 Florida                     87  84    +7.56    -4.56
AWAY   # 65 Indiana                     91  81   +10.39    -0.39
HOME   # 91 South Dakota                96  80   +19.95    -3.95
HOME   #222 Saint Francis-Pa.          124  67   +29.90   +27.10
AWAY   # 77 Boston College              84  89   +11.97   -16.97
HOME   #162 Evansville                 104  40   +25.58   +38.42
HOME   # 24 Florida State              100  93   +11.60    -4.60
AWAY   # 50 NC State                    85  96    +8.81   -19.81
AWAY   #188 Pittsburgh                  87  52   +21.27   +13.73
HOME   # 80 Wake Forest                 89  71   +18.68    -0.68
AWAY   # 33 Miami-Florida               83  75    +6.52    +1.48
HOME   #188 Pittsburgh                  81  54   +27.63    -0.63
AWAY   # 80 Wake Forest                 84  70   +12.32    +1.68
HOME   #  4 Virginia                    63  65    +5.30    -7.30
HOME   # 30 Notre Dame                  88  66   +12.55    +9.45
AWAY   # 69 St. John's                  77  81   +10.98   -14.98
AWAY   #  8 North Carolina              78  82    +0.86    -4.86
AWAY   #100 Georgia Tech                80  69   +14.36    -3.36
HOME   # 35 Virginia Tech               74  52   +12.97    +9.03
AWAY   # 20 Clemson                     66  57    +4.81    +4.19
HOME   # 29 Louisville                  82  56   +12.35   +13.65
HOME   # 45 Syracuse                    60  44   +14.14    +1.86
AWAY   # 35 Virginia Tech               63  64    +6.61    -7.61
HOME   #  8 North Carolina              74  64    +7.22    +2.78
NEUT   # 30 Notre Dame                  88  70    +9.37    +8.63
NEUT   #  8 North Carolina              69  74    +4.04    -9.04
NEUT   #127 Iona College                89  67   +19.88    +2.12
NEUT   # 46 Rhode Island                87  62   +11.21   +13.79
NEUT   # 45 Syracuse                    69  65   +10.96    -6.96
NEUT   #  6 Kansas                                +2.89             0.594