predictions for Clemson game

Survive and advance.

Perhaps the most eye-popping statistic I've seen about the Sweet Sixteen is
that Kansas has a 10-1 record against the field, having played six of the
other fifteen teams.  Duke is undefeated against the Sweet Sixteen, but only
has 3 wins.  Villanova is undefeated as well, but has a single win.  Texas
Tech has the second-most wins with 5, and West Virginia is third with 4 wins.
Of course, it helps having played a full, balanced schedule in a conference
that has four entries in the Sweet Sixteen.  The ACC also has four entries,
but Duke played the other three only once apiece, and Clemson played only
one of the other three twice, splitting the games with Florida State and
losing the other two.

Clemson has a positive trend of 0.18 +/- 0.16 points per game and a mental
toughness rating of 0.08 +/- 0.17, which isn't statistically significant.
Kansas has a negative trend of 0.20 +/- 0.20 points per game and a mental
toughness rating of -0.47 +/- 0.27, which could cost the Jayhawks almost
3 points in the margin.  Both teams are underrated, but Clemson has played
a full point above expectation more than Kansas, on average.  Clemson is
also about 3 points per game more consistent than Kansas, but the margin
is small enough that the game is still within reach.  Their destruction of
Auburn was easily their best game of the season, having played almost 30
points above expectation.  Three other non-conference games featured
double-digit above expectation performances.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six; Clemson
grabs 0.5 more total rebounds per game, and attempts more free throws per field
goal attempt.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
only three, namely offensive rebounds per game, steals per game, and personal
fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Texas Southern and Syracuse:

KU  +43 TxS at home (+40 neutral court)
Cle  +7 TxS at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  +36 Cle neutral (+36 neutral court)

KU  +16 Syr neutral (+16 neutral court)
Cle  -3 Syr on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +16 Cle neutral (+16 neutral court)

The average is 26 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Marcquise Reed            guard
Leading scorer        Marcquise Reed            guard
Leading rebounder     Elijah Thomas             forward
Most assists          Shelton Mitchell          guard
Most steals           Marcquise Reed            guard
Most blocks           Elijah Thomas             forward
Most turnovers        Marcquise Reed            guard
Most fouls            Elijah Thomas             forward

Forward Donte Grantham tore the ACL in his knee and is out for the season.
He was fourth on the team in minutes played per game and second in points
per game.

                                                          29-7           25-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Clemson
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +5.01   75   70                #  4   #  4     # 18   # 31 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.17   75   70       67.9     #  6   #  4     # 20   # 31 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.42   75   71                #  6   #  4     # 17   # 31 
Sagarin Recent Games    +4.76   75   70                #  6   #  4     # 16   # 31 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +3.55   73   69                                           
Sagarin Combo           +4.97   75   70                #  3   #  7     # 15   # 27
Sagarin Elo             +6.12   76   70                #  3   #  7     # 15   # 27
Sagarin Blue            +4.02   75   71                #  6   #  7     # 17   # 27
performance adjust      +4.09   75   71            
trend adjust            +1.60   74   72            
Massey                  +3.00   74   71       60.0     #  5   #  2     # 15   # 19 
Pomeroy                 +1.14   72   71                #  9   #  7     # 14   # 28
Greenfield              +4.50   74   69                #  7   #  2     # 19   # 21
Dunkel                  +7.00   77   70                # 11            # 25       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   73   69                                           
Real Time RPI             .                            #  3   #  4     # 15   # 12 
Real Time GAMER           .                            #  3   #  4     # 15   # 12 
Dolphin Predictive      +2.15   72   70       57.5     #  7   #  3     # 16   # 16
ESPN BPI                +3.80                 64.6     #  7   #  9     # 16   # 19
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   72   70       57.0     #  4   #  5     # 17   # 12
Whitlock                +2.76                          #  8   #  4     # 20   # 21       
DPPI                      .                                                       
Colley Matrix           +4.70                          #  3   #  4     # 14   # 19
CBN RPI                                                #  3   #  2     #  9   #  8
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     # 24   # 28
common opponents       +26.00                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +4.99 +/- 5.03

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents, if the Tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.32    +9.68
NEUT   # 14 Kentucky                    65  61    +3.57    +0.43
HOME   # 88 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.48   +17.52
HOME   #239 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.95   +15.05
HOME   #161 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.69   +20.31
HOME   #119 Toledo                      96  58   +19.53   +18.47
NEUT   # 45 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.27    +7.73
HOME   # 95 Washington                  65  74   +17.22   -26.22
HOME   # 43 Arizona State               85  95   +11.18   -21.18
AWAY   # 67 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.69    -6.69
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.18   +14.82
AWAY   # 81 Stanford                    75  54    +9.52   +11.48
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       92  86    +3.70    +2.30
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.20   -18.20
AWAY   # 19 TCU                         88  84    +1.87    +2.13
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.97   -10.97
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                73  72   +10.96    -9.96
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -2.06    +7.06
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      70  67    +9.32    -6.32
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.94    -8.94
HOME   # 25 Texas A&M                   79  68    +8.86    +2.14
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                70  56    +4.60    +9.40
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.16   -17.16
HOME   # 19 TCU                         71  64    +8.23    -1.23
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      64  80    +2.96   -18.96
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.61    -3.61
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               77  69    +4.30    +3.70
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma                   104  74   +10.30   +19.70
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.16    +2.16
HOME   # 34 Texas                       80  70   +10.06    -0.06
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.80   -23.80
NEUT   # 49 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.98    +5.02
NEUT   # 41 Kansas State                83  67    +7.78    +8.22
NEUT   #  8 West Virginia               81  70    +1.12    +9.88
NEUT   #121 Pennsylvania                76  60   +16.52    -0.52            cumulative
NEUT   # 26 Seton Hall                  83  79    +5.89    -1.89            probability
NEUT   # 20 Clemson                               +5.17             0.679   0.679
NEUT   #  2 Duke                                  -3.01             0.400   0.272
NEUT   #  1 Villanova                             -3.50             0.384   0.104
NEUT   # 12 Michigan                              +3.06             0.602   0.063

Here is Clemson's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #309 Western Carolina            85  57   +27.72    +0.28
HOME   #317 NC A&T                      87  63   +28.29    -4.29
NEUT   #183 Ohio                        81  76   +15.80   -10.80
NEUT   #151 Hofstra                     78  59   +13.46    +5.54
NEUT   # 86 Temple                      60  67    +7.98   -14.98
HOME   #239 Texas Southern              84  77   +22.78   -15.78
AWAY   # 21 Ohio State                  79  65    -3.18   +17.18
HOME   #190 NC Asheville                83  52   +19.72   +11.28
HOME   #278 Samford                     81  59   +25.40    -3.40
NEUT   # 16 Florida                     71  69    -0.53    +2.53
HOME   # 72 South Carolina              64  48    +9.65    +6.35
HOME   # 79 Louisiana-Lafayette         89  60   +10.56   +18.44
HOME   # 51 NC State                    78  62    +7.14    +8.86
AWAY   # 78 Boston College              74  70    +3.96    +0.04
HOME   # 29 Louisville                  74  69    +4.32    +0.68
AWAY   # 51 NC State                    77  78    +0.78    -1.78
HOME   # 33 Miami-Florida               72  63    +4.86    +4.14
AWAY   #  9 North Carolina              79  87    -7.19    -0.81
HOME   # 30 Notre Dame                  67  58    +4.52    +4.48
AWAY   #  4 Virginia                    36  61    -9.10   -15.90
AWAY   #100 Georgia Tech                72  70    +6.33    -4.33
HOME   #  9 North Carolina              82  78    -0.83    +4.83
AWAY   # 80 Wake Forest                 75  67    +4.30    +3.70
HOME   #189 Pittsburgh                  72  48   +19.60    +4.40
AWAY   # 27 Florida State               79  81    -2.36    +0.36
HOME   #  2 Duke                        57  66    -5.00    -4.00
AWAY   # 35 Virginia Tech               58  65    -1.43    -5.57
HOME   #100 Georgia Tech                75  67   +12.69    -4.69
HOME   # 27 Florida State               76  63    +4.00    +9.00
AWAY   # 45 Syracuse                    52  55    -0.08    -2.92
NEUT   # 78 Boston College              90  82    +7.14    +0.86
NEUT   #  4 Virginia                    58  64    -5.92    -0.08
NEUT   # 73 New Mexico State            79  68    +6.51    +4.49
NEUT   # 31 Auburn                      84  53    +1.42   +29.58
NEUT   #  6 Kansas                                -5.17             0.321