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Updated Odds -- Now Using the DPPI

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8 years 3 months ago #927 by CorpusJayhawk
I finished programming my probability module of the DPPI so now I can do all the probabilities much faster. The DPPI shows the Big 12 to be much more bifurcated. The top 5 teams are seriously separated from the bottom 5 teams. The top 5 teams are projected to win an average of 12.2 games while the bottom 5 are projected to win an average of 5.8 games. KU's odds of winning the big 12 are pretty decent at this point at 25% outright and 43% shared. .
-Projected Conference Wins-		
Team        	Wins	
-----------	------	
Kansas      	13.0	
Oklahoma     	12.6	
West Virginia	12.4	
Texas        	11.8	
Iowa St.     	11.5	
Baylor       	7.4	
Kansas St.   	7.0	
Texas Tech   	6.4	
TCU          	4.3	
Oklahoma St. 	3.5	
--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Kansas      	24.9%	43.1%
Oklahoma    	17.3%	33.0%
West Virginia	14.5%	28.9%
Texas       	7.9%	18.0%
Iowa St.    	6.0%	14.7%
Baylor      	0.0%	0.1%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
Texas Tech  	0.0%	0.0%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	68.7%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	56.3%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	74.1%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	37.0%
TCU         	Lawrence    	91.5%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	74.0%
Texas       	Lawrence    	75.2%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	40.0%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	82.5%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	77.2%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	61.6%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	32.1%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	89.8%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	62.1%
Baylor      	Waco        	44.5%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	89.8%
Texas       	Austin      	52.2%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	64.6%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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8 years 3 months ago #944 by mtnMan
Is West Virginia really that good?

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8 years 3 months ago #945 by CorpusJayhawk
Good question. As of this morning I had West Virginia with the 10th best rating Div 1. The Massey Composite of 42 computer rankings has them ranked 11th. They lost by 16 to Virginia who is ranked 12th in my rating. They also beat San Diego State by 22 on a neutral court. Recall that KU beat SDSU by 13 on the road. So that is a 5 point advantage to WVU over KU on the common opponents. They will be exceedingly difficult in Morgantown. I will stick with my projection of 12-13 games for West Virginia for now. I think they are for real.

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