predictions for Seton Hall game

Survive and advance.  And NEVER underestimate your opponent, else you lose.
Maybe that's why Virginia lost, becoming the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed.
And not just a 1 seed, but the OVERALL 1 seed.  That embarrassment now tops
losing to Chaminade with Ralph Sampson while ranked #1.

Seton Hall's performance is almost spot-on with its Sagarin Predictor rating,
whereas Kansas is underrated by about a third of a point.  Meanwhile, Seton
Hall has been incredibly consistent all season, more than 4 points more
consistent than Kansas, having played only 9 games above expectation by enough
to overcome Sagarin's predicted 6 point margin.

Seton Hall has effectively no trend as well as a neutral mental toughness
rating.  Kansas still shows a negative trend, but it's not statistically
significant anymore, though the negative mental toughness rating does show
some statistical significance.  The combination of those two reduces the margin
for Kansas by a little over a point.

The average of the various prognostications is around 4.9 points in favor of
Kansas, with a scatter almost equal in size.  The most optimistic is the
Recent Games flavor of the Sagarin ratings, where Kansas is a 9.5 point
favorite, while the most pessimistic arises from the common opponents
comparison, where Seton Hall's big win over Texas Texas coupled with our
home loss and squeaker of a win on the road combine to produce a 15 point
deficit.

I'm not going to wait for Don Davis to email his prediction, and it doesn't
look like Real Time is going to stay on top of the Tournament, so I'm going
with what I've got.

We're up to a 4.8 percent chance of winning the National Championship, if the
future opponents are chosen from among the highest remaining seeds (Xavier, the
1 seed from the West Region replaces Virginia, the 1 seed from the South Region,
which represents a boost for Kansas).

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Seton Hall
grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound percentage,
and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Seton Hall grabs more offensive
rebounds per game and also grabs more defensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Texas Tech:

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
SH  +10 TTU neutral (+10 neutral court)     SH  +10 TTU neutral (+10 neutral court)
KU   -5 SH  neutral ( -5 neutral court)     KU  -25 SH  neutral (-25 neutral court)

The average is 15 points in favor of Seton Hall.  Then again, the win over
Texas Tech was Seton Hall's best performance of the entire season, almost
13 points above expectation.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Khadeen Carrington        guard
Leading scorer        Desi Rodriguez            forward
Leading rebounder     Angel Delgado             center
Most assists          Khadeen Carrington        guard
Most steals           Khadeen Carrington        guard
Most blocks           Ismael Sanogo             forward
Most turnovers        Angel Delgado             center
Most fouls            Ismael Sanogo             forward

Reserve guard Jordan Walker had surgery to repair a thumb injury and is out for
the rest of the season.

                                                          28-7           22-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Seton Hall
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.01   79   73                #  5   #  4     # 24   # 30 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.00   79   73       71.1     #  6   #  4     # 28   # 30 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.05   79   74                #  8   #  4     # 22   # 30 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.50   81   72                #  6   #  4     # 37   # 30 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +5.98   81   75                                           
Sagarin Combo           +7.20   80   73                #  3   #  6     # 27   # 34
Sagarin Elo             +8.38   80   72                #  3   #  6     # 31   # 34
Sagarin Blue            +6.05   79   73                #  6   #  6     # 27   # 34
performance adjust      +6.35   79   73            
trend adjust            +5.11   79   74            
Massey                  +5.00   80   75                #  5   #  2     # 25   # 20 
Pomeroy                 +3.86   77   73                #  9   #  7     # 26   # 29
Greenfield              +4.50   79   75                #  7   #  2     # 26   # 21
Dunkel                  +5.50   82   76                # 11            # 34       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   79   75                                           
Real Time RPI             .                            #  5   #  5     # 32   # 30 
Real Time GAMER           .                            #  5   #  5     # 32   # 30 
Dolphin Predictive      +4.89   80   76       66.0     #  9   #  5     # 26   # 26
ESPN BPI                +7.50                 75.5     #  8   # 12     # 27   # 28
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   76   73       61.0     #  5   #  5     # 30   # 37
Whitlock                +4.86                          #  8   #  4     # 26   # 24       
DPPI                      .                                                       
Colley Matrix           +8.23                          #  4   #  3     # 32   # 32
CBN RPI                                                #  4   #  2     # 30   # 26
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     # 30   # 27
common opponents       -15.00                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +4.86 +/- 4.82

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents, if the Tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.36    +9.64
NEUT   # 14 Kentucky                    65  61    +3.87    +0.13
HOME   # 88 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.55   +17.45
HOME   #241 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.02   +14.98
HOME   #161 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.73   +20.27
HOME   #119 Toledo                      96  58   +19.54   +18.46
NEUT   # 47 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.56    +7.44
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.51   -26.51
HOME   # 44 Arizona State               85  95   +11.30   -21.30
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.83    -6.83
HOME   #268 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.23   +14.77
AWAY   # 82 Stanford                    75  54    +9.63   +11.37
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       92  86    +3.72    +2.28
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.28   -18.28
AWAY   # 19 TCU                         88  84    +1.89    +2.11
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.96   -10.96
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                73  72   +10.84    -9.84
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -1.88    +6.88
HOME   # 26 Baylor                      70  67    +9.13    -6.13
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.96    -8.96
HOME   # 31 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.52    +1.48
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                70  56    +4.48    +9.52
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State              79  84   +11.87   -16.87
HOME   # 19 TCU                         71  64    +8.25    -1.25
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      64  80    +2.77   -18.77
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.60    -3.60
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.48    +3.52
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                   104  74   +10.32   +19.68
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.08    +2.08
HOME   # 34 Texas                       80  70   +10.08    -0.08
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.51   -23.51
NEUT   # 48 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.69    +5.31
NEUT   # 41 Kansas State                83  67    +7.66    +8.34
NEUT   #  9 West Virginia               81  70    +1.30    +9.70            Cumulative
NEUT   #122 Pennsylvania                76  60   +16.57    -0.57            Probability
NEUT   # 28 Seton Hall                            +6.00             0.711   0.711
NEUT   # 27 Auburn                                +5.96             0.691   0.491
NEUT   #  2 Duke                                  -2.70             0.411   0.202
NEUT   #  1 Villanova                             -3.18             0.395   0.080
NEUT   # 11 Xavier-Ohio                           +3.07             0.601   0.048

Here is Seton Hall's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #286 Fairleigh Dickinson         90  68   +24.94    -2.94
HOME   #165 Monmouth-NJ                 75  65   +16.96    -6.96
HOME   # 63 Indiana                     84  68    +7.90    +8.10
HOME   #259 NJIT(New Jersey Tech)       82  53   +23.54    +5.46
NEUT   # 43 Rhode Island                74  75    +2.04    -3.04
NEUT   # 77 Vanderbilt                  72  59    +6.32    +6.68
NEUT   # 13 Texas Tech                  89  79    -2.90   +12.90
AWAY   # 24 Louisville                  79  77    -3.32    +5.32
HOME   #113 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       90  67   +13.01    +9.99
HOME   #210 Saint Peter's               84  61   +20.23    +2.77
AWAY   #123 Rutgers                     65  71    +7.41   -13.41
HOME   #193 Wagner                      89  68   +19.35    +1.65
HOME   #199 Manhattan                   74  62   +19.78    -7.78
HOME   # 22 Creighton                   90  84    +2.74    +3.26
HOME   # 69 St. John's                  75  70    +8.56    -3.56
AWAY   # 23 Butler                      90  87    -3.38    +6.38
AWAY   # 53 Marquette                   64  84    +0.23   -20.23
HOME   # 92 Georgetown                  74  61   +11.20    +1.80
AWAY   # 22 Creighton                   63  80    -3.62   -13.38
HOME   # 11 Xavier-Ohio                 64  73    +0.25    -9.25
AWAY   #109 DePaul                      86  70    +6.27    +9.73
HOME   # 55 Providence                  73  57    +7.26    +8.74
AWAY   #  1 Villanova                   76  92   -12.36    -3.64
HOME   # 53 Marquette                   85  88    +6.59    -9.59
AWAY   # 92 Georgetown                  80  83    +4.84    -7.84
AWAY   # 11 Xavier-Ohio                 90 102    -6.11    -5.89
HOME   #109 DePaul                      82  77   +12.63    -7.63
AWAY   # 55 Providence                  89  77    +0.90   +11.10
AWAY   # 69 St. John's                  81  74    +2.20    +4.80            overtime
HOME   #  1 Villanova                   68  69    -6.00    +5.00            overtime
HOME   # 23 Butler                      77  70    +2.98    +4.02
NEUT   # 23 Butler                      74  75    -0.20    -0.80
NEUT   # 50 NC State                    94  83    +3.19    +7.81
NEUT   #  6 Kansas                                -6.00             0.289