predictions for Pennsylvania game

Giant killers from the East!  The strongest 16 seed in, like, forever!
Suffocating three point defense!  This is the year a 1 seed finally
loses to a 16 seed!

By now you've heard it all.  I will say this:  if you take an opponent for
granted in the Tournament, you will lose.  But the odds are against Penn.
Yes, they are playing 1.1 points above expectation, whereas Kansas is only
playing 0.6 points above expectation.  Yes, they are more consistent than
Kansas by about 3 points per game, but that makes it harder for them to
overcome a 17 point margin in favor of Kansas.  Yes, they have a positive
trend of 0.27 points per game with some statistical significance to it,
while Kansas' trend is -0.21 points per game, though the value is not
statistically significant anymore.  And yes, Kansas has a negative mental
toughness statistic, as does Penn, but a negative value works in favor for
the stronger team, while a negative value works against the weaker team.
The bottom line is that the trend and mental toughness statistics add to
the margin for Kansas by 2 to 4 points.

And think about it for a moment.  Penn's great three-point defense statistics
were earned against one of the weaker schedules in the country.  Yeah, they
did play Villanova (lost by 28) and Temple (lost by 9 at home), but those are
the only ones in the top third of Division I.  Their next strongest opponent,
Toledo, is at the very top of the middle third of Division I and is the
subject of the common opponent section below.  Would their three point
defense rating be as good if they had played the schedule that Kansas did?

I'm posting these prognostications now, even though they aren't quite as
complete as usual, partly because it's an early tip, partly because I can
imagine the interest level is high enough that you'd rather not wait until
an hour before the game, and partly because it is mostly complete.  The
Sagarin offense-defense method prediction won't be available until after he
updates his ratings with the results of Wednesday's games.  When it becomes
available, I'll post a reply to this message.  Look for it below.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six; Pennsylvania
grabs more total rebounds per game and attempts more free throws per field goal
attempt.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four;
Pennsylvania holds opponents to fewer points per game, holds opponents to a lower
effective field goal percentage, and grabs more defensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponents, namely Toledo:

KU   +38 Tol  at home (+35 neutral court)
Penn -13 Tol  at home (-16 neutral court)
KU   +51 Penn neutral (+51 neutral court)

That 51 point differential is a little deceptive, as the Toledo game was Penn's
worst performance of the season, playing over 15 points below expectation, while
it was Kansas' third-best performance of the season, playing over 18 points above
expectation.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Ryan Betley               guard
Leading scorer        Ryan Betley               guard
Leading rebounder     A. J. Brodeur             forward
Most assists          Darnell Foreman           guard
Most steals           Darnell Foreman           guard
Most blocks           A. J. Brodeur             forward
Most turnovers        A. J. Brodeur             forward
Most fouls            Max Rothschild            forward

Let the Madness begin!

                                                          27-7           24-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Pennsylvania
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +16.31   83   66                #  6   #  5     #118   #226 
Sagarin Predictor      +16.65   83   66       92.6     #  6   #  5     #122   #226 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +15.93   82   66                #  8   #  5     #117   #226 
Sagarin Recent Games   +11.39   80   69                #  6   #  5     # 54   #226 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth      .                                                       
Sagarin Combo          +17.52   83   66                #  3   #  5     #130   #269
Sagarin Elo            +18.28   84   65                #  3   #  5     #137   #269
Sagarin Blue           +16.85   83   66                #  6   #  5     #124   #269
performance adjust     +15.87   82   67            
trend adjust           +19.44   84   65            
Massey                 +14.00   81   67       91.0     #  7   #  3     # 99   #249 
Pomeroy                +13.38   79   66                #  9   #  6     #127   #271
Greenfield             +14.00   80   66                #  7   #  3     #113   #157
Dunkel                 +10.50   81   71                # 11            # 82       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.00   81.5 65.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +10.00   79   69                #  5   #  6     # 85   #314 
Real Time GAMER        +10.00   79   69       67.8     #  5   #  6     # 85   #314 
Dolphin Predictive     +13.28   80   67       87.5     #  9   #  5     #111   #305
ESPN BPI               +16.90                 92.9     #  8   # 10     #100   #292
Seven Overtimes         +8.00   78   70       85.0     #  6   #  3     # 78   #190
Whitlock               +14.57                          #  8   #  3     #119   #247       
DPPI                   +21.20   88   67       97.5                                
Colley Matrix          +16.67                          #  4   #  3     #103   #290
CBN RPI                                                #  5   #  2     #115   #293
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     #108   #259
common opponents       +51.00                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +16.7  +/- 8.6

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents, if the Tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #212 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.22    +9.78
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.20    -0.20
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.23   +17.77
HOME   #244 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.47   +14.53
HOME   #163 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.60   +20.40
HOME   #118 Toledo                      96  58   +19.37   +18.63
NEUT   # 49 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.63    +7.37
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.27   -26.27
HOME   # 43 Arizona State               85  95   +10.86   -20.86
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.53    -6.53
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.90   +15.10
AWAY   # 80 Stanford                    75  54    +9.31   +11.69
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +3.41    +2.59
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.97   -17.97
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +1.45    +2.55
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.73   -10.73
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                73  72   +10.89    -9.89
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -2.22    +7.22
HOME   # 25 Baylor                      70  67    +8.93    -5.93
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.56    -8.56
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.28    +1.72
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                70  56    +4.55    +9.45
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State              79  84   +11.62   -16.62
HOME   # 17 TCU                         71  64    +7.79    -0.79
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      64  80    +2.59   -18.59
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.39    -3.39
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.12    +3.88
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.90   +20.10
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.37    +2.37
HOME   # 35 Texas                       80  70    +9.75    +0.25
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.28   -23.28
NEUT   # 48 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.45    +5.55
NEUT   # 44 Kansas State                83  67    +7.72    +8.28
NEUT   #  9 West Virginia               81  70    +0.95   +10.05
NEUT   #126 Pennsylvania                         +16.91             0.929
NEUT   # 29 Seton Hall                            +5.97             0.690
NEUT   # 24 Auburn                                +5.60             0.679
NEUT   #  2 Duke                                  -2.97             0.403
NEUT   #  1 Villanova                             -3.41             0.388
NEUT   #  3 Virginia                              -1.79             0.441

Here is Pennsylvania's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #206 Fairfield                   72  80    +2.59   -10.59
HOME   #132 La Salle                    71  75    +4.05    -8.05            double overtime
NEUT   #222 Navy                        66  45    +6.80   +14.20
USCAA  Penn State Brandywine   
NEUT   #239 Northern Illinois           93  80    +7.62    +5.38
NEUT   #133 Towson                      71  79    +0.89    -8.89
NEUT   #302 Kansas City(UMKC)           68  65   +11.76    -8.76
AWAY   #166 Monmouth-NJ                101  96    -0.52    +5.52            quadruple overtime
AWAY   #  1 Villanova                   62  90   -23.49    -4.51
AWAY   #330 Howard                      81  68   +12.47    +0.53
AWAY   #287 Lafayette                   73  68    +7.54    -2.54
AWAY   #128 Dayton                      78  70    -2.84   +10.84
HOME   #350 Delaware State             105  52   +26.46   +26.54
HOME   #118 Toledo                      72  85    +2.46   -15.46
HOME   #160 Princeton                   76  70    +5.50    +0.50
HOME   #252 Cornell                     69  61   +11.90    -3.90
HOME   #209 Columbia                    77  71    +9.05    -3.05
HOME   # 87 Temple                      51  60    -0.71    -8.29
HOME   #107 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          67  56    +1.44    +9.56
HOME   #255 Brown                       95  90   +12.12    -7.12            overtime
HOME   #169 Yale                        59  50    +6.02    +2.98
AWAY   #160 Princeton                   82  65    -0.84   +17.84
AWAY   #279 Dartmouth                   64  61    +7.17    -4.17
AWAY   #129 Harvard                     67  76    -2.75    -6.25
AWAY   #209 Columbia                    74  62    +2.71    +9.29
AWAY   #252 Cornell                     79  71    +5.56    +2.44
HOME   #279 Dartmouth                   74  46   +13.51   +14.49
HOME   #129 Harvard                     74  71    +3.59    -0.59
AWAY   #169 Yale                        79  80    -0.32    -0.68
AWAY   #255 Brown                       99  93    +5.78    +0.22
NEUT   #169 Yale                        80  57    +2.85   +20.15
NEUT   #129 Harvard                     68  65    +0.42    +2.58
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                               -16.91             0.072