Big 12 update

Colley won honors for best prognostications in the Big 12 Tournament,
which is a bit of a surprise, because Colley has been the second worst
of the prognosticators over the entire season.  The trend analysis was
third worst.  Real Time did not post any game predictions for the
Tournament, so its average is based on 90 games, not 99 games.  Sagarin
has the season lead, but the difference between the various prognosticators
is about 1 point per game.  Real Time needs to reevaluate its rating method.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over WVU   1.0   1.0   0.3  -1.5   3.5   1.0  -0.5   5.0   1.3   1.4   4.0         1.1   1.1  -2.2
KU  over KSU   7.3   8.0   4.6   7.5   3.0   6.0   5.4   7.5   5.4   7.6   5.0         7.4   7.4   5.0
WVU over TTU   1.8  -1.0   0.0   2.5  -1.0   1.5   1.1  -0.9  -0.4   1.3  -3.0         0.9   0.9   3.5
KU  over OSU   8.0   4.0   5.4   5.5   1.5   3.5   5.3  10.6   6.5   9.8  11.0         8.0   8.0   3.6
WVU over BU    4.4   3.0   3.5   5.5   8.5   4.5   4.4   4.9   3.9   6.0   7.0         4.7   4.7   4.3
TTU over UT    3.8   4.0   4.5   6.5   7.0   5.5   4.6   4.9   4.8   5.6   4.0         5.3   5.3   3.1
TCU over KSU   3.2   3.0   2.8   2.5  -1.0   2.5   3.3   2.3   3.1   3.6  -3.0         3.6   3.6   3.6
UT  over ISU   6.1   7.0   6.1   5.0   2.5   6.0   6.0   6.6   6.8   6.7   9.0         7.3   7.3   5.9
OU  over OSU   2.2   1.0   1.3   1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.2   2.3   1.8   2.5   1.0         2.2   2.2  -2.9

     Reality  Er1or              0.5    1                 1           2     6     2         2.5     3
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        11    10.0  10.0  10.7  12.5   7.5  10.0  11.5   6.0   9.7   9.6   7.0         9.9   9.9  13.2
        16     8.7   8.0  11.4   8.5  13.0  10.0  10.6   8.5  10.6   8.4  11.0         8.6   8.6  11.0
         3     1.2   4.0   3.0   0.5   4.0   1.5   1.9   3.9   3.4   1.7   6.0         2.1   2.1   0.5
        14     6.0  10.0   8.6   8.5  12.5  10.5   8.7   3.4   7.5   4.2   3.0         6.0   6.0  10.4
        13     8.6  10.0   9.5   7.5   4.5   8.5   8.6   8.1   9.1   7.0   6.0         8.3   8.3   8.7
         4     0.2   0.0   0.5   2.5   3.0   1.5   0.6   0.9   0.8   1.6   0.0         1.3   1.3   0.9
        -2     5.2   5.0   4.8   4.5   1.0   4.5   5.3   4.3   5.1   5.6   1.0         5.6   5.6   5.6
         4     2.1   3.0   2.1   1.0   1.5   2.0   2.0   2.6   2.8   2.7   5.0         3.3   3.3   1.9
        11     8.8  10.0   9.7  10.0  13.0  11.0  10.8   8.7   9.2   8.5  10.0         8.8   8.8  13.9

total         50.8  60.0  60.3  55.5  60.0  59.5  60.0  46.4  58.2  49.3  49.0        53.9  53.9  66.1
previous     792.9 825.0 813.9 792.0 829.0 812.0 814.1 893.2 830.7 809.0 821.0 903.0 816.3 821.7 868.8
cumulative   843.7 885.0 874.2 847.5 889.0 871.5 874.1 939.6 888.9 858.3 870.0       870.2 875.6 934.9
per game       8.5   8.9   8.8   8.6   9.0   8.8   8.8   9.5   9.0   8.7   8.8  10.0   8.8   8.8   9.4

TCU's inconsistentcy is almost impossibly small.  Kansas' tournament performance got the Jayhawks out
the cellar in the trend statistic; in fact, it's now not statistically significant.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.06    TCU               7.75    
Kansas          +0.58    Texas             8.95    
TCU             +0.48    Kansas State     10.01    
Oklahoma State  +0.12    Texas Tech       10.27    
Kansas State    +0.08    Baylor           10.33    
Oklahoma         0.00    Oklahoma State   10.62    
West Virginia   -0.13    Oklahoma         10.91    
Baylor          -0.26    Iowa State       12.21    
Texas           -0.31    Kansas           12.99    
Iowa State      -1.50    West Virginia    13.70    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma State  +0.21 +/- 0.19    Iowa State      +0.33 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      +0.16 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  +0.06 +/- 0.16
TCU             +0.07 +/- 0.15    Texas           -0.01 +/- 0.15
Baylor          +0.01 +/- 0.21    Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.19    TCU             -0.06 +/- 0.16
West Virginia   -0.02 +/- 0.24    Kansas State    -0.07 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.08 +/- 0.17    Baylor          -0.08 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      -0.20 +/- 0.19    West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.21 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma        -0.21 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        -0.45 +/- 0.21    Kansas          -0.48 +/- 0.28

All ten conference members did make it into the Top 25 in strength of schedule.
Seven members are in the Top 8.  Only North Carolina at #1 played a tougher schedule.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        84.90   Texas Tech      65.18   Oklahoma        166.81   West Virginia    +9.79   
TCU             82.50   Kansas State    68.24   TCU             158.94   Kansas           +9.74   
Kansas          81.09   Texas           68.64   Kansas          152.44   Texas Tech       +9.58   
West Virginia   79.21   West Virginia   69.41   Oklahoma State  149.52   TCU              +6.06   
Oklahoma State  75.94   Baylor          69.74   West Virginia   148.62   Baylor           +4.35   
Texas Tech      74.76   Kansas          71.35   Iowa State      148.29   Kansas State     +3.76   
Baylor          74.10   Oklahoma State  73.58   Baylor          143.84   Oklahoma         +3.00   
Iowa State      72.39   Iowa State      75.90   Kansas State    140.24   Texas            +2.67   
Kansas State    72.00   TCU             76.44   Texas           139.94   Oklahoma State   +2.36   
Texas           71.30   Oklahoma        81.90   Texas Tech      139.94   Iowa State       -3.52   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma        82.47 ( 2)
Texas           82.43 ( 3)
Baylor          82.31 ( 4)
Kansas          82.01 ( 5)
Iowa State      81.74 ( 6)
Oklahoma State  81.62 ( 7)
West Virginia   81.58 ( 8)
TCU             80.81 (17)
Texas Tech      80.78 (19)
Kansas State    80.51 (24)