predictions for West Virginia game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

Just a one game difference from the Big 12 Tournament playing out according to seed.
So instead of a Kansas versus Texas Tech final, we get a Kansas versus West Virginia
final.  With the way the Mountaineers press, we may need Sosinski's five fouls.

As you can see below, most of the prognostications favor Kansas, but most of them
are based on computer ratings that have no knowledge of Azubuike being out for the
game.  Greenfield takes injuries into account, and perhaps not surprisingly, he
favors West Virginia.  Curiously, Vegas is picking Kansas, at least according to
Dunkel, and Vegas presumably takes injuries into account.  Greenfield is usually a
very good proxy for Vegas, so the difference in this case is most interesting.

Although Kansas has slightly more favorable comparisons among the common opponents,
West Virginia comes out on top in the average margin.

The trend and mental toughness ratings for West Virginia are not statistically
significant.  Meanwhile they are both negative and statistically significant for
Kansas.  As a result, the trend analysis favors West Virginia.

The average of the various prognostications favors Kansas by 1.1 points, but the
scatter is 2.1 points, meaning that the prognosticators can't really decide on a
winner.  Considering that the national average inconsistency is up around 11 points,
and is over 13 points for both Kansas and West Virginia, it means that the game
could easily go either way.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three,
namely points per game, assists per game, and effective field goal percentage.
Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three,
namely opponents effective field goal percentage, defensive rebounds per game,
and personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are ten common opponents, namely Texas A&M, Kentucky, and all the other eight
conference members.  I'm comparing twenty eight scores:

non-conference

KU  +11 A&M at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU -23 A&M neutral (-23 neutral court)
KU  +31 WVU neutral (+31 neutral court)

KU   +4 UK  neutral ( +4 neutral court)
WVU  -7 UK  at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court)

conference regular season (only the home-home and road-road permutations)

KU  -18 OSU on road (-15 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
WVU  +6 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     WVU  -3 OSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  -24 WVU neutral (-24 neutral court)     KU   -2 WVU neutral ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  +8 KSU on road (+11 neutral court)     WVU +38 KSU at home (+35 neutral court)
KU   +6 WVU neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU  -37 WVU neutral (-37 neutral court)

KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)     KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
WVU +13 OU  at home (+10 neutral court)     WVU  +2 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +17 WVU neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU   -7 WVU neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)
WVU  +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     WVU +11 BU  on road (+14 neutral court)
KU    0 WVU neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU  -27 WVU neutral (-27 neutral court)

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
WVU  -1 TTU on road ( +2 neutral court)     WVU +10 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +3 WVU neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -22 WVU neutral (-22 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU +35 UT  at home (+32 neutral court)     WVU  -8 UT  on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  -25 WVU neutral (-25 neutral court)     KU  +14 WVU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
WVU  -9 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court)     WVU +16 TCU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  +13 WVU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU   -9 WVU neutral ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
WVU -16 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     WVU +15 ISU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  +22 WVU neutral (+22 neutral court)     KU  -10 WVU neutral (-10 neutral court)

head to head

KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +8 WVU neutral ( +8 neutral court)

conference tournament

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)
WVU +13 BU  neutral (+13 neutral court)     WVU +13 BU  neutral (+13 neutral court)
KU  -13 WVU neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU  -26 WVU neutral (-26 neutral court)

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
WVU  +3 TTU neutral ( +3 neutral court)     WVU  +3 TTU neutral ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +2 WVU neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  -18 WVU neutral (-18 neutral court)

KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)
WVU  +6 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     WVU  -3 OSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +20 WVU neutral (+20 neutral court)

KU  +16 KSU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  +16 KSU neutral (+16 neutral court)
WVU  +8 KSU on road (+11 neutral court)     WVU +38 KSU at home (+35 neutral court)
KU   +5 WVU neutral ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -19 WVU neutral (-19 neutral court)

Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while thirteen favor West Virginia; one is
a wash.  The Mountaineers matched up better with Oklahoma State, but the rest
produced mixed results.  The average is 2.6 points in favor of West Virginia, with
a scatter of 17.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Jevon Carter              guard
Leading scorer        Jevon Carter              forward
Leading rebounder     Sagaba Konate             forward
Most assists          Jevon Carter              guard
Most steals           Jevon Carter              guard
Most blocks           Sagaba Konate             forward
Most turnovers        Jevon Carter              guard
Most fouls            Jevon Carter              forward

Only two names in the list above.  Interesting.

                                                          26-7           24-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +1.07   76   75                #  7   #  5     #  9   #  9 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.95   76   75       52.8     #  7   #  5     #  9   #  9 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +0.94   76   75                #  8   #  5     # 10   #  9 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.24   77   74                #  4   #  5     # 15   #  9 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +0.70   78   77                                           
Sagarin Combo           +2.68   77   74                #  3   #  6     # 11   # 12
Sagarin Elo             +4.06   77   73                #  3   #  6     # 13   # 12
Sagarin Blue            +1.17   76   75                #  8   #  6     #  9   # 12
performance adjust      +1.07   76   75            
trend adjust            -2.16   74   76            
Massey                  +1.00   78   77       53.0     # 11   #  3     # 14   # 21 
Pomeroy                 +0.28   75   75                # 10   #  7     # 11   # 23
Greenfield              -1.50   74   76                #  7   #  3     #  9   #  4
Dunkel                  +3.50   76   73                # 12            # 13       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.00   78   77                                           
Real Time RPI                                          #  5   #  8     # 25   # 55 
Real Time GAMER                                        #  5   #  8     # 25   # 55 
Dolphin Predictive      -0.54   77   78       48.2     # 10   #  7     #  9   #  3
ESPN BPI                +1.40                 55.0     #  8   # 15     # 10   # 17
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   77   73       76.0     #  6   #  5     # 16   # 24
Whitlock                +1.27                          #  8   #  4     # 13   # 34       
DPPI                    -2.00   73   75       43.0                                
Colley Matrix           +5.02                          #  4   #  3     # 19   # 37
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  2     # 26   # 52
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     # 10   # 38
common opponents        -2.64                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +1.11 +/- 2.07

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #212 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.22    +9.78
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.20    -0.20
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.23   +17.77
HOME   #244 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.47   +14.53
HOME   #163 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.60   +20.40
HOME   #118 Toledo                      96  58   +19.37   +18.63
NEUT   # 49 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.63    +7.37
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.27   -26.27
HOME   # 43 Arizona State               85  95   +10.86   -20.86
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.53    -6.53
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.90   +15.10
AWAY   # 80 Stanford                    75  54    +9.31   +11.69
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +3.41    +2.59
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.97   -17.97
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +1.45    +2.55
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.73   -10.73
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                73  72   +10.89    -9.89
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -2.22    +7.22
HOME   # 25 Baylor                      70  67    +8.93    -5.93
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.56    -8.56
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.28    +1.72
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                70  56    +4.55    +9.45
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State              79  84   +11.62   -16.62
HOME   # 17 TCU                         71  64    +7.79    -0.79
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      64  80    +2.59   -18.59
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.39    -3.39
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.12    +3.88
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.90   +20.10
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.37    +2.37
HOME   # 35 Texas                       80  70    +9.75    +0.25
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.28   -23.28
NEUT   # 48 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.45    +5.55
NEUT   # 44 Kansas State                83  67    +7.72    +8.28
NEUT   #  9 West Virginia                         +0.95             0.528

Here is West Vrignia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Texas A&M                   65  88    +5.16   -28.16
HOME   #324 American U.                 98  64   +33.09    +0.91
HOME   #327 Morgan State               111  48   +34.13   +28.87
HOME   #199 Long Beach State            91  62   +24.73    +4.27
NEUT   #315 Marist                      84  78   +29.05   -23.05
NEUT   # 97 Central Florida(UCF)        83  45   +13.22   +24.78
NEUT   # 42 Missouri                    83  79    +6.70    -2.70
HOME   #261 NJIT(New Jersey Tech)      102  69   +28.42    +4.58
HOME   #  3 Virginia                    68  61    +0.43    +6.57
AWAY   #186 Pittsburgh                  69  60   +17.24    -8.24
HOME   #346 Coppin State                77  38   +39.62    -0.62
HOME   #258 Fordham                     86  69   +28.29   -11.29
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State              85  79    +4.33    +1.67
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                77  69    +3.60    +4.40
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    89  76    +8.95    +4.05
HOME   # 25 Baylor                      57  54    +7.98    -4.98
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  71  72    -1.32    +0.32
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      66  71    +2.22    -7.22
HOME   # 35 Texas                       86  51    +8.80   +26.20
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         73  82    +0.50    -9.50
HOME   # 15 Kentucky                    76  83    +6.42   -13.42
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  77  93    +8.44   -24.44
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                89  51    +9.94   +28.06
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    75  73    +2.61    -0.61
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State              85  88   +10.67   -13.67
HOME   # 17 TCU                         82  66    +6.84    +9.16
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      69  77    -4.12    -3.88
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                      71  60    +1.64    +9.36
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  85  70   +14.78    +0.22
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  84  74    +5.02    +4.98
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       79  87    +2.46   -10.46
NEUT   # 25 Baylor                      78  65    +4.81    +8.19
NEUT   # 12 Texas Tech                  66  63    +1.85    +1.15
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -0.95             0.472