predictions for Kansas State game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

Bedlam on Wednesday.  Texas and Texas Tech on Thursday.  Sunflower Showdown on Friday.
I wonder how much those matchups may have boosted attendance?  The Sprint Center was
relatively empty for the West Virginia and Baylor finale yesterday.

Weber must be confident about their NCAA bid, because the rumor is that he's not going
to play Dean Wade, who is said to have re-aggravated a foot injury in yesterday's
overtime win over TCU.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of them;
Kansas State attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Kansas State holds
opponents to fewer points per game steals more balls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, namely Arizona State and all the other eight conference
members.  I'm comparing twenty three scores:

non-conference

KU  -10 ASU at home (-13 neutral court)
KSU  -2 ASU neutral ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -11 KSU neutral (-11 neutral court)

conference regular season

KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KSU +16 ISU on road (+19 neutral court)     KSU +12 ISU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  -10 KSU neutral (-10 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KSU  -8 WVU at home (-11 neutral court)     KSU -38 WVU on road (-35 neutral court)
KU  +16 KSU neutral (+16 neutral court)     KU  +43 KSU neutral (+43 neutral court)

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KSU -16 TTU on road (-13 neutral court)     KSU -19 TTU at home (-22 neutral court)
KU  +18 KSU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU   +7 KSU neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU  -18 OSU on road (-15 neutral court)
KSU  +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)     KSU +10 OSU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   -9 KSU neutral ( -9 neutral court)     KU  -28 KSU neutral (-28 neutral court)

KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)     KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +18 OU  at home (+15 neutral court)     KSU  -9 OU  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +12 KSU neutral (+12 neutral court)     KU   +4 KSU neutral ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU  +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KSU  -7 TCU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  +11 KSU neutral (+11 neutral court)

KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU  +7 BU  on road (+10 neutral court)     KSU +10 BU  at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -23 KSU neutral (-23 neutral court)     KU   -7 KSU neutral ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)
KSU  +3 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KSU +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +3 KSU neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU    0 KSU neutral (  0 neutral court)

head to head

KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +17 KSU neutral (+17 neutral court)     KU   -2 KSU neutral ( -2 neutral court)

conference tournament

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU  +2 TCU neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KSU  +2 TCU neutral ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +5 KSU neutral ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)
KSU  +4 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court)     KSU +10 OSU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU  +13 KSU neutral (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU neutral ( +1 neutral court)

Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Kansas State; one is a
wash.  The Wildcats matched up better with Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor
than Kansas did, whiles Kansas matched up better with West Virginia, Texas Tech,
Oklahoma, and TCU than did Kansas State.  Texas produced mixed results.  The
average is 2.5 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 14.8 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Barry Brown               guard
Leading scorer        Dean Wade                 forward
Leading rebounder     Dean Wade                 forward
Most assists          Kamau Stokes              guard
Most steals           Barry Brown               guard
Most blocks           Makol Mawien              forward
Most turnovers        Barry Brown               guard
Most fouls            Makol Mawien              forward

Dean Wade has some sort of foot injury, and it's being reported that he won't suit
up for today's game.  Well, I guess that evens things out a bit, as Azubuike is
also out with his knee sprain.  But unlike the last time we played them, Kamau
Stokes is back.

                                                          25-7           22-10
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.97   77   70                #  7   #  6     # 38   # 24 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.32   77   69       73.4     #  7   #  6     # 42   # 24 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.74   76   70                #  8   #  6     # 35   # 24 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.92   76   70                #  6   #  6     # 30   # 24 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +7.04   74   67                                           
Sagarin Combo           +6.84   77   70                #  4   #  8     # 30   # 28
Sagarin Elo             +5.91   76   70                #  4   #  8     # 20   # 28
Sagarin Blue            +7.58   77   69                #  8   #  8     # 43   # 28
performance adjust      +7.42   77   69            
trend adjust            +5.00   76   71            
Massey                  +8.00   75   67       78.0     # 12   #  2     # 26   # 38 
Pomeroy                 +4.63   74   70                # 11   # 10     # 40   # 41
Greenfield              +7.50   73.5 66                #  7   #  3     # 42   # 28
Dunkel                  +3.00   75   72                # 12            # 34       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.00   73.5 67.5                                         
Real Time RPI                                          #  7   #  8     # 45   # 81 
Real Time GAMER                                        #  7   #  8     # 45   # 81 
Dolphin Predictive      +5.43   74   69       68.3     # 10   #  5     # 39   # 36
ESPN BPI                +7.60                 77.2     #  9   # 12     # 42   # 33
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   76   71       78.0     # 11   #  5     # 50   # 51
Whitlock                +5.35                          #  9   #  4     # 37   # 43       
DPPI                    +7.00   81   74                                           
Colley Matrix           +7.48                          #  4   #  3     # 36   # 53
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  3     # 51   # 89
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  2     # 48   # 42
common opponents        +2.48                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.15 +/- 1.49

Here is Kansas' season, along with future opponents, if the tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #212 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.03    +9.97
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.16    -0.16
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.05   +17.95
HOME   #250 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.53   +14.47
HOME   #162 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.42   +20.58
HOME   #117 Toledo                      96  58   +19.17   +18.83
NEUT   # 48 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.45    +7.55
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +17.08   -26.08
HOME   # 44 Arizona State               85  95   +10.67   -20.67
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.31    -6.31
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.72   +15.28
AWAY   # 79 Stanford                    75  54    +9.11   +11.89
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +3.20    +2.80
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.74   -17.74
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         88  84    +1.23    +2.77
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.53   -10.53
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                73  72   +10.50    -9.50
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -2.41    +7.41
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      70  67    +8.71    -5.71
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.37    -8.37
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.15    +1.85
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                70  56    +4.14    +9.86
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State              79  84   +11.43   -16.43
HOME   # 18 TCU                         71  64    +7.59    -0.59
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      64  80    +2.35   -18.35
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.17    -3.17
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +3.95    +4.05
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.73   +20.27
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.62    +2.62
HOME   # 35 Texas                       80  70    +9.56    +0.44
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State              64  82    +5.07   -23.07
NEUT   # 47 Oklahoma State              82  68    +8.25    +5.75
NEUT   # 42 Kansas State                          +7.32             0.734
NEUT   # 12 Texas Tech                            +2.56             0.585

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #325 American U.                 83  45   +26.53   +11.47
HOME   #302 Kansas City(UMKC)           72  51   +24.33    -3.33
HOME   #147 UC Irvine                   71  49   +13.96    +8.04
HOME   #333 Northern Arizona            80  58   +28.57    -6.57
NEUT   # 44 Arizona State               90  92    +0.17    -2.17
NEUT   #176 George Washington           67  59   +12.72    -4.72
HOME   #235 Oral Roberts                77  68   +20.11   -11.11
AWAY   # 76 Vanderbilt                  84  79    +1.46    +3.54
HOME   #331 USC Upstate                 86  49   +28.26    +8.74
NEUT   #101 Tulsa                       54  61    +7.11   -14.11
HOME   #266 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     89  71   +22.11    -4.11
AWAY   #172 Washington State            68  65    +9.24    -6.24
AWAY   # 82 Iowa State                  91  75    +1.85   +14.15
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               69  77    -3.37    -4.63
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  58  74    -7.94    -8.06
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State              86  82    +4.11    -0.11
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      72  73   -10.50    +9.50
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma                    87  69    +2.41   +15.59
HOME   # 18 TCU                         73  68    +0.27    +4.73
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      90  83    -4.97   +11.97
HOME   # 60 Georgia                     56  51    +5.98    -0.98
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      56  70    -4.14    -9.86
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               51  89    -9.73   -28.27
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       67  64    -4.12    +7.12
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  47  66    -1.58   -17.42
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State              82  72    -2.25   +12.25
HOME   # 82 Iowa State                  78  66    +8.21    +3.79
HOME   # 35 Texas                       58  48    +2.24    +7.76
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma                    77  86    -3.95    -5.05
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         59  66    -6.09    -0.91
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      77  67    +1.39    +8.61
NEUT   # 18 TCU                         66  64    -2.91    +4.91
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -7.32             0.266