predictions for Oklahoma State game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

Deja vu.  I have distinct memories of having played Oklahoma State in recent
days.  That must have been in a parallel universe.  You know, the one in which
Spock has a beard.

The good news is that Oklahoma State played less than 24 hours ago, and it was
a physically and emotionally draining "must win" game against their in-state
rival.  Meanwhile, Kansas rested.  The bad news is that Doke strained his knee
during practice and will not play.  Oklahoma State still has something to play
for, as the talking heads still fell that the Cowboys are on the bubble.  And
let's not discount the possibility that Self might want to help his alma mater
get into the Dance.

Seven Overtimes is the most optimistic, with Kansas as an 11 point favorite.
Sagarin's Recent Games method is the most pessimistic, with Kansas losing by
10 points.  The average favors Kansas by 6 points.  How many is Doke worth?

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Oklahoma State grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Oklahoma State grabs
more offensive rebounds per game and steals more balls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, namely Texas A&M and all the other eight conference
members.  Adding both permutations involving Oklahoma State's neutral court win over
Oklahoma to both head-to-head games, we have twenty one scores to compare:

KU  +11 A&M at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU -17 A&M neutral (-17 neutral court)
KU  +25 OSU neutral (+25 neutral court)

KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OSU  -6 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)     OSU  +3 WVU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU neutral ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)
OSU -20 OU  on road (-17 neutral court)     OSU  +2 OU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +15 OSU neutral (+15 neutral court)     KU  +28 OSU neutral (+28 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  +9 ISU at home ( +6 neutral court)     OSU  +9 ISU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -4 OSU neutral ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -3 OSU neutral ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OSU  -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     OSU -10 KSU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +18 OSU neutral (+18 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU neutral (+11 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  +1 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     OSU  -1 UT  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +9 OSU neutral ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU neutral ( +7 neutral court)

KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
OSU -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     OSU -11 BU  at home (-14 neutral court)
KU    0 OSU neutral (  0 neutral court)     KU  +14 OSU neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
OSU  -5 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)     OSU  +8 TTU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +7 OSU neutral ( +7 neutral court)     KU  -20 OSU neutral (-20 neutral court)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU -13 TCU at home (-16 neutral court)     OSU -20 TCU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU  +20 OSU neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU neutral (+24 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)
OSU +11 OU  neutral (+11 neutral court)     OSU +11 OU  neutral (+11 neutral court)
KU  -13 OSU neutral (-13 neutral court)     KU  +16 OSU neutral (+16 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU  -18 OSU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU   -8 OSU neutral ( -8 neutral court)     KU  -25 OSU neutral (-15 neutral court)

Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor Oklahoma State; one is a
wash.  The Cowboys matched up better with Iowa State than Kansas did, whiles Kansas
matched up better with Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas, and TCU than did Oklahoma State.
The rest produced mixed results.  The average is 6.5 points in favor of Kansas, with
a scatter of 14.6 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading scorer        Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading rebounder     Mitchell Solomon          forward
Most assists          Kendall Smith             guard
Most steals           Kendall Smith             guard
Most blocks           Yankuba Sima              forward
Most turnovers        Kendall Smith             guard
Most fouls            Mitchell Solomon          forward

                                                          24-6           17-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.41   79   72                #  8   #  6     # 45   #  7 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.99   80   72       74.6     #  7   #  6     # 47   #  7 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.24   79   72                #  8   #  6     # 45   #  7 
Sagarin Recent Games    -9.78   71   80                # 59   #  6     #  5   #  7 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +7.78   79   71                                           
Sagarin Combo           +8.40   80   71                #  4   #  7     # 44   #  9
Sagarin Elo             +8.81   80   71                #  4   #  7     # 43   #  9
Sagarin Blue            +8.01   80   72                #  8   #  7     # 46   #  9
performance adjust      +8.03   80   72            
trend adjust            +3.62   77   74            
Massey                  +4.00   77   73       66.0     # 12   #  2     # 44   # 25 
Pomeroy                 +5.36   77   71                # 12   #  8     # 51   # 22
Greenfield              +5.50   77   72                #  7   #  3     # 47   # 22
Dunkel                  +1.50   78   77                # 14            # 69       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +3.50   77   73                                           
Real Time RPI                                          #  7   #  6     # 82   # 54 
Real Time GAMER                                        #  7   #  6     # 82   # 54 
Dolphin Predictive      +5.34   78   73       67.6     # 10   #  5     # 40   # 26
ESPN BPI                +9.80                 81.4     # 10   #  9     # 58   # 11
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   81   70       86.0     # 10   #  6     #107   # 12
Whitlock                +6.52                          # 12   #  4     # 52   # 31       
DPPI                    +6.60                                                     
Colley Matrix          +10.56                          #  4   #  3     # 62   # 33
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  2     # 85   # 67
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  2     # 52   # 33
common opponents        +6.52                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.03 +/- 4.24

Here is Kansas' season, along with future opponents, if the tournament
plays out according to seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             92  56   +25.91   +10.09
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.04    -0.04
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +15.95   +18.05
HOME   #248 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.39   +14.61
HOME   #161 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.30   +20.70
HOME   #116 Toledo                      96  58   +18.94   +19.06
NEUT   # 48 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.35    +7.65
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +16.97   -25.97
HOME   # 44 Arizona State               85  95   +10.55   -20.55
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.17    -6.17
HOME   #270 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.62   +15.38
AWAY   # 77 Stanford                    75  54    +8.86   +12.14
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +3.09    +2.91
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.63   -17.63
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +1.00    +3.00
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.39   -10.39
HOME   # 43 Kansas State                73  72   +10.51    -9.51
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -2.34    +7.34
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      70  67    +8.40    -5.40
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.23    -8.23
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   79  68    +8.95    +2.05
AWAY   # 43 Kansas State                70  56    +4.15    +9.85
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State              79  84   +11.17   -16.17
HOME   # 17 TCU                         71  64    +7.36    -0.36
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      64  80    +2.04   -18.04
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.03    -3.03
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.02    +3.98
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.59   +20.41
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.73    +2.73
HOME   # 35 Texas                       80  70    +9.45    +0.55
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State              64  82    +4.81   -22.81
NEUT   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +7.99             0.746
NEUT   # 43 Kansas State                          +7.33             0.731
NEUT   # 11 Texas Tech                            +2.45             0.581

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #247 Pepperdine                  78  47   +20.34   +10.66
HOME   #303 Charlotte                   83  65   +23.80    -5.80
HOME   #236 Oral Roberts                91  48   +19.33   +23.67
NEUT   # 30 Texas A&M                   55  72    -2.22   -14.78
NEUT   #187 Pittsburgh                  73  67   +13.02    -7.02
HOME   #328 Houston Baptist            101  74   +27.12    -0.12
HOME   #220 Austin Peay                 79  63   +18.26    -2.26
HOME   #347 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      83  62   +32.75   -11.75
HOME   # 14 Wichita State               66  78    -1.97   -10.03
NEUT   # 32 Florida State               71  70    -2.07    +3.07
HOME   #101 Tulsa                       71  59    +9.48    +2.52
HOME   #268 UTRGV                      102  83   +21.46    -2.46
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               79  85    -3.97    -2.03
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    89 109    -4.76   -15.24
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                  96  87    +7.40    +1.60
AWAY   # 43 Kansas State                82  86    -3.84    -0.16
HOME   # 35 Texas                       65  64    +1.46    -0.46
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      60  76    -5.95   -10.05
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    83  81    +1.60    +0.40
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  70  75    -8.72    +3.72
AWAY   # 33 Arkansas                    65  66    -4.95    +3.95
HOME   # 17 TCU                         66  79    -0.63   -12.37
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      84  79   -11.17   +16.17
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      56  67    +0.41   -11.41
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               88  85   -10.33   +13.33
HOME   # 43 Kansas State                72  82    +2.52   -12.52
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         70  90    -6.99   -13.01
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  79  71    -2.36   +10.36
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       64  65    -4.90    +3.90
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                  80  71    +1.04    +7.96
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      82  64    -4.81   +22.81
NEUT   # 37 Oklahoma                    71  60    -1.58   +12.58
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                -7.99             0.254