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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 18
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6 years 2 months ago #17049
by asteroid
"Things that are inevitable: death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
--Doug Gottlieb
The wins by Oklahoma State and Texas produced a four-way tie for sixth place, but the
tie-breaker rules made Oklahoma's free-fall all the way down to the #9 seed in the
conference tournament. Similarly, the tie-breaker rules gave Texas Tech the #2 seed.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10 Rd 11
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 7 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61 12.55 12.78
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05 11.77 11.98
# 9 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64 11.04 11.55
# 44 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00 8.47 9.23
# 17 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07 8.33 8.13
# 25 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20 6.48 7.07
# 37 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30 8.82 8.02
# 49 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80 6.92 6.32
# 34 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79 10.33 9.86
# 82 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54 5.29 5.06
Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 7 Kansas 12.06 12.32 12.73 13.01 13.53 13.71 13 5 (Th)
# 11 Texas Tech 12.49 12.82 12.31 11.58 11.06 10.70 11 7 (Th)
# 9 West Virginia 10.63 10.96 10.56 11.07 11.23 11.59 11 7 BU (Th) WVU by 4.4
# 44 Kansas State 8.65 9.33 9.63 10.12 9.79 9.52 10 8 TCU (Th)
# 17 TCU 8.44 8.09 8.34 8.72 9.05 9.30 9 9 KSU (Th) TCU by 3.1
# 25 Baylor 7.85 8.42 8.93 8.42 8.09 8.48 8 10 WVU (Th)
# 37 Texas 7.69 7.09 7.83 7.35 7.60 7.41 8 10 ISU (We) UT by 6.0
# 49 Oklahoma State 7.25 6.58 6.33 7.03 6.77 7.29 8 10 OU (We)
# 34 Oklahoma 9.14 8.84 8.09 7.81 8.15 7.78 8 10 OSU (We) OU by 2.2
# 82 Iowa State 5.80 5.55 5.25 4.89 4.73 4.22 4 14 UT (We)
How did the teams do relative to the preseason expectation? Kansas State is the
biggest surprise, while Oklahoma is the biggest dissappointment.
Init.
Proj. Act.
Big XII Team Wins Wins Diff.
-------------- ----- ---- -----
Kansas State 6.82 10 +3.18
Oklahoma State 6.64 8 +1.36
Texas Tech 10.24 11 +0.76
TCU 8.93 9 +0.07
Kansas 13.09 13 -0.09
West Virginia 11.22 11 -0.22
Iowa State 4.83 4 -0.83
Texas 8.92 8 -0.92
Baylor 9.34 8 -1.34
Oklahoma 9.97 8 -1.97
A three-game difference from the preseason projection is not uncommon.
The prognostications for Wednesday's conference tournament games suggest that Texas Tech will get
Texas on Thursday (that should be a good game, with both teams having toe problems), and Kansas
will get Oklahoma, though while part of me wants to have nothing to do with Oklahoma State, another
part of me wants to show them a thing or two.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
OU over OSU 2.2
UT over ISU 6.0
Here's the "home court advantage" analysis for the 2018 season. I put
quotation marks around it because it's really the "swap of venue effect",
which is a combination of the home court advantage and the road court
disadvantage. However, because everybody plays everybody else, the
road court disadvantage is largely the same for each team (except for
the fact that you don't play yourself).
Swap of Venue Effect
----------------------
Oklahoma +18.56
Iowa State +16.00
West Virginia +15.22
Baylor +13.15
Texas +10.89
Texas Tech +10.22
TCU +9.33
Kansas State +5.89
Kansas +5.44
Oklahoma State +5.22
Here are the details for each team. "1@H" means Team 1 at home, while
"2@H" means Team 2 at home. Those are followed by the margin differential.
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Kansas Oklahoma +30 -5 +35
Kansas Baylor +3 -16 +19
Kansas Oklahoma State -5 -18 +13
Kansas Texas +10 +6 +4
Kansas TCU +7 +4 +3 <-- median; mean = +5.44
Kansas West Virginia +8 +5 +3
Kansas Iowa State +5 +6 -1
Kansas Kansas State +1 +14 -13
Kansas Texas Tech -12 +2 -14
Kansas State West Virginia -8 -38 +30
Kansas State Oklahoma +18 -9 +27
Kansas State TCU +5 -7 +12
Kansas State Texas +10 +3 +7
Kansas State Baylor +10 +7 +3 <-- median; mean = +5.89
Kansas State Texas Tech -19 -16 -3
Kansas State Iowa State +12 +16 -4
Kansas State Oklahoma State +4 +10 -6
Kansas State Kansas -14 -1 -13
Iowa State Texas Tech +18 -18 +36
Iowa State West Virginia +16 -15 +31
Iowa State Oklahoma +8 -21 +29
Iowa State Baylor +10 -14 +24
Iowa State TCU -6 -23 +17 <-- median; mean = +16.00
Iowa State Texas -4 -16 +12
Iowa State Oklahoma State -9 -9 0
Iowa State Kansas -6 -5 -1
Iowa State Kansas State -16 -12 -4
West Virginia Texas +35 -8 +43
West Virginia Iowa State +15 -16 +31
West Virginia Kansas State +38 +8 +30
West Virginia TCU +16 -9 +25
West Virginia Oklahoma +13 +2 +11 <-- median; mean = +15.22
West Virginia Texas Tech +10 -1 +11
West Virginia Kansas -5 -8 +3
West Virginia Baylor +3 +11 -8
West Virginia Oklahoma State -3 +6 -9
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +2 -20 +22
Oklahoma State Kansas +18 +5 +13
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +8 -5 +13
Oklahoma State TCU -13 -20 +7
Oklahoma State Baylor -11 -16 +5 <-- median; mean = +5.22
Oklahoma State Texas +1 -1 +2
Oklahoma State Iowa State +9 +9 0
Oklahoma State Kansas State -10 -4 -6
Oklahoma State West Virginia -6 +3 -9
Oklahoma Kansas +5 -30 +35
Oklahoma Iowa State +21 -8 +29
Oklahoma Kansas State +9 -18 +27
Oklahoma Baylor +2 -23 +25
Oklahoma Oklahoma State +20 -2 +22 <-- median; mean = +18.56
Oklahoma Texas Tech +10 -10 +20
Oklahoma West Virginia -2 -13 +11
Oklahoma TCU +5 +1 +4
Oklahoma Texas -11 -5 -6
Texas Tech Iowa State +18 -18 +36
Texas Tech Baylor +24 -2 +26
Texas Tech Oklahoma +10 -10 +20
Texas Tech Oklahoma State +5 -8 +13
Texas Tech Texas +2 -9 +11 <-- median; mean = +10.22
Texas Tech West Virginia +1 -10 +11
Texas Tech Kansas State +16 +19 -3
Texas Tech TCU +4 +12 -8
Texas Tech Kansas -2 +12 -14
TCU West Virginia +9 -16 +25
TCU Iowa State +23 +6 +17
TCU Texas +16 -1 +17
TCU Kansas State +7 -5 +12
TCU Baylor +10 +3 +7 <-- median; mean = +9.33
TCU Oklahoma State +20 +13 +7
TCU Oklahoma -1 -5 +4
TCU Kansas -4 -7 +3
TCU Texas Tech -12 -4 -8
Baylor Texas Tech +2 -24 +26
Baylor Oklahoma +23 -2 +25
Baylor Iowa State +14 -10 +24
Baylor Kansas +16 -3 +19
Baylor Texas +9 +1 +8 <-- median; mean = +13.15
Baylor TCU -3 -10 +7
Baylor Oklahoma State +16 +11 +5
Baylor Kansas State -7 -10 +3
Baylor West Virginia -11 -3 -8
Texas West Virginia +8 -35 +43
Texas TCU +1 -16 +17
Texas Iowa State +16 +4 +12
Texas Texas Tech +9 -2 +11
Texas Baylor -1 -9 +8 <-- median; mean = +10.89
Texas Kansas State -3 -10 +7
Texas Kansas -6 -10 +4
Texas Oklahoma State +1 -1 +2
Texas Oklahoma +5 +11 -6
Here's the analysis for the conference as a whole:
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
West Virginia Texas +35 -8 +43
Texas Tech Iowa State +18 -18 +36
Kansas Oklahoma +30 -5 +35
West Virginia Iowa State +15 -16 +31
West Virginia Kansas State +38 +8 +30
Oklahoma Iowa State +21 -8 +29
Kansas State Oklahoma +18 -9 +27
Texas Tech Baylor +24 -2 +26
West Virginia TCU +16 -9 +25
Baylor Oklahoma +23 -2 +25
Baylor Iowa State +14 -10 +24
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +2 -20 +22
Texas Tech Oklahoma +10 -10 +20
Kansas Baylor +3 -16 +19
TCU Iowa State +23 +6 +17
TCU Texas +16 -1 +17
Kansas Oklahoma State -5 -18 +13
Texas Tech Oklahoma State +5 -8 +13
Kansas State TCU +5 -7 +12
Texas Iowa State +16 +4 +12
Texas Tech Texas +2 -9 +11
Texas Tech West Virginia +1 -10 +11
West Virginia Oklahoma +13 +2 +11 <-- median; mean = +10.89
Baylor Texas +9 +1 +8
Kansas State Texas +10 +3 +7
TCU Baylor +10 +3 +7
TCU Oklahoma State +20 +13 +7
Baylor Oklahoma State +16 +11 +5
Kansas Texas +10 +6 +4
TCU Oklahoma -1 -5 +4
Kansas TCU +7 +4 +3
Kansas West Virginia +8 +5 +3
Kansas State Baylor +10 +7 +3
Texas Oklahoma State +1 -1 +2
Oklahoma State Iowa State +9 +9 0
Kansas Iowa State +5 +6 -1
Texas Tech Kansas State +16 +19 -3
Kansas State Iowa State +12 +16 -4
Kansas State Oklahoma State +4 +10 -6
Texas Oklahoma +5 +11 -6
Texas Tech TCU +4 +12 -8
West Virginia Baylor +3 +11 -8
West Virginia Oklahoma State -3 +6 -9
Kansas Kansas State +1 +14 -13
Kansas Texas Tech -12 +2 -14
Note that the national average home court advantage used by Sagarin is currently at 3.17 points,
so once again, the home court advantage in the Big 12 is larger than the national average. Last
season, when it was smaller, appears to have been a statistical anomaly. But before you jump to
the conclusion that the 10.89 point value shown above is way, way more than the 3.17 point
national average, remember, 10.89 points is the swap of venue effect, which is the sum of the
home court advantage and the road court disadvantage. Basically you need to think in terms of
half that value, or 5.45 points, at the home court advantage in the Big 12.
Real Time RPI won honors for best prognostications in Round 18. Greenfield has taken over the
season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
OU over ISU 8.8 10.0 8.9 10.5 5.5 10.0 8.5 10.0 9.1 11.6 9.0 16.0 10.3 9.8 3.5
KU over OSU 6.4 3.0 4.4 3.0 2.0 5.5 4.5 9.5 5.8 7.3 5.0 3.0 6.8 7.3 4.3
TTU over TCU 4.9 6.0 5.3 4.5 9.0 6.5 5.5 3.4 4.9 6.9 2.0 8.0 5.6 5.1 2.1
WVU over UT 2.8 -1.0 1.8 5.0 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.8 2.0 0.0 -1.0 3.4 3.9 5.1
KSU over BU 0.6 4.0 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 4.8 1.9 1.9 5.0 6.0 0.8 0.4 -0.4
Reality Er1or 0.5 1 2 6 2 2.5 3
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
21 12.2 11.0 12.1 10.5 15.5 11.0 12.5 11.0 11.9 9.4 12.0 5.0 10.7 11.2 17.5
-18 24.4 21.0 22.4 21.0 20.0 23.5 22.5 27.5 23.8 25.3 23.0 21.0 24.8 25.3 22.3
4 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.5 5.0 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.9 2.9 2.0 4.0 1.6 1.1 1.9
-8 10.8 7.0 9.8 13.0 15.0 11.5 10.9 10.3 9.8 10.0 8.0 7.0 11.4 11.9 13.1
10 9.4 6.0 8.4 7.5 7.5 8.5 9.0 5.2 8.1 8.1 5.0 4.0 9.2 9.6 10.4
57.7 47.0 54.0 52.5 63.0 57.0 56.4 54.6 54.5 55.7 50.0 41.0 57.7 59.1 65.2
735.2 778.0 759.9 739.5 766.0 755.0 757.7 838.6 776.2 753.3 771.0 862.0 758.6 762.6 803.6
792.9 825.0 813.9 792.0 829.0 812.0 814.1 893.2 830.7 809.0 821.0 903.0 816.3 821.7 868.8
8.8 9.2 9.0 8.8 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.9 9.2 9.0 9.1 10.0 9.1 9.1 9.7
Two road wins were projected for Round 18, but neither happened,
leaving us two road wins short of the long-term average of one
in three. But that's within the usual range, so no big surprise,
though one thought it might be higher this season after starting
the season with 8 road wins in the first ten games. There were
only 20 road wins in the last 80 games, a one in four rate, and
Kansas was responsible for 5 of those.
Road wins (28 out of 90) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
6 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU ISU TTU 1 Texas Tech KU +4 Kansas
4 Kansas State ISU BU UT OSU 2 Kansas TTU OSU +2 Texas Tech
4 West Virginia OSU KSU OU BU 2 Oklahoma WVU UT +2 West Virginia
3 Oklahoma State KU WVU ISU 2 West Virginia WVU OSU +1 Kansas State
3 TCU BU OSU ISU 3 Baylor TCU KSU WVU 0 TCU
3 Texas Tech KU TCU KSU 3 Kansas State WVU KU TTU -1 Baylor
2 Baylor OSU UT 3 TCU OU KU TTU -1 Oklahoma
2 Texas ISU OU 3 Texas KU KSU BU -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma TCU 4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU KSU -1 Texas
0 Iowa State 5 Iowa State KSU UT KU TCU OSU -5 Iowa State
That performance against Oklahoma State landed the Jayhawks right back in last place
in the trend statistic.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.15 TCU 7.85
TCU +0.53 Texas 9.25
Kansas +0.20 Kansas State 10.24
Kansas State +0.11 Baylor 10.34
West Virginia +0.11 Oklahoma State 10.58
Oklahoma State +0.10 Texas Tech 10.61
Oklahoma +0.07 Oklahoma 10.88
Baylor -0.22 Iowa State 12.39
Texas -0.32 Kansas 13.35
Iowa State -1.57 West Virginia 14.24
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma State +0.21 +/- 0.21 Iowa State +0.32 +/- 0.19
Iowa State +0.15 +/- 0.26 Oklahoma State +0.06 +/- 0.16
TCU +0.12 +/- 0.16 Texas -0.01 +/- 0.15
Baylor +0.06 +/- 0.22 Texas Tech -0.01 +/- 0.17
Kansas State +0.03 +/- 0.21 TCU -0.04 +/- 0.16
West Virginia -0.01 +/- 0.29 Kansas State -0.05 +/- 0.16
Texas -0.08 +/- 0.19 Baylor -0.07 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech -0.22 +/- 0.21 West Virginia -0.11 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma -0.42 +/- 0.22 Oklahoma -0.21 +/- 0.20
Kansas -0.43 +/- 0.26 Kansas -0.56 +/- 0.28
Kansas State's strength of schedule rating went up, but their ranking slipped a couple of
spots, so we didn't quite get all ten conference members into the Top 25. But we have the
conference tournament next week, which will add to everybody's strength of schedule. Neat
that six of the top eight strengths of schedule are in the Big 12. The two spots we didn't
capture belong to #3 North Carolina and #7 Vanderbilt.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 85.73 Texas Tech 65.03 Oklahoma 168.00 West Virginia +10.58
TCU 83.10 Kansas State 67.90 TCU 159.87 Texas Tech +10.16
Kansas 81.00 Texas 68.65 Kansas 152.65 Kansas +9.35
West Virginia 79.97 West Virginia 69.39 Oklahoma State 150.10 TCU +6.32
Oklahoma State 76.35 Baylor 69.47 West Virginia 149.35 Baylor +4.93
Texas Tech 75.19 Kansas 71.65 Iowa State 148.83 Kansas State +4.45
Baylor 74.40 Oklahoma State 73.74 Baylor 143.87 Oklahoma +3.47
Iowa State 72.67 Iowa State 76.17 Kansas State 140.26 Texas +2.84
Kansas State 72.35 TCU 76.77 Texas Tech 140.23 Oklahoma State +2.61
Texas 71.48 Oklahoma 82.27 Texas 140.13 Iowa State -3.50
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 82.41 ( 1)
Texas 82.26 ( 2)
Baylor 82.03 ( 4)
Kansas 81.71 ( 5)
Iowa State 81.61 ( 6)
Oklahoma State 81.14 ( 8)
West Virginia 80.74 (13)
TCU 80.31 (14)
Texas Tech 80.27 (22)
Kansas State 79.89 (28)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, sasnak, Socalhawk, DocBlues
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6 years 2 months ago #17050
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Great stuff, as always, Asteroid.
But I have a quibble. My friend, you were a whopping 0.09 off on your preseason projections for KU wins.
You must be slacking, or losing a little fidelity in your models.
In all seriousness, though, boy, did you nail that! (Again)
But I have a quibble. My friend, you were a whopping 0.09 off on your preseason projections for KU wins.
You must be slacking, or losing a little fidelity in your models.
In all seriousness, though, boy, did you nail that! (Again)
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.