predictions for Oklahoma State game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

With the regular season title all sewn up, Kansas has nothing to play for, while
Oklahoma State's shot at the Big Dance may depend on achieving a conference record
of 8-10, right?  Well, actually Kansas does have something to play for.  First,
there is Self's streak of never having been swept by a conference opponent while
he's been at Kansas.  And a 1 seed in the Big Dance may be on the line.  On the
other hand, Self tends to downplay the value of a 1 seed over a 2 seed.  And what
if getting a 1 seed means having to go out West, whereas a 2 seed might mean
staying closer to home in the Midwest?  But let's not forget that Devonte is a
competitor, and he doesn't want to lose.  Yeah, there's something to play for.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Oklahoma State grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six; Oklahoma State grabs
more offensive rebounds per game, though steals per game is effectively a wash.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, namely Texas A&M and all the other eight conference
members.  Along with the head-to-head game in Lawrence, we have eighteen scores to
compare:

KU  +11 A&M at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU -17 A&M neutral (-17 neutral court)
KU  +22 OSU on road (+25 neutral court)

KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OSU  -6 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)     OSU  +3 WVU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU  +11 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)     KU   -1 OSU on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)
OSU -20 OU  on road (-17 neutral court)     OSU  +2 OU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +12 OSU on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +25 OSU on road (+28 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  +9 ISU at home ( +6 neutral court)     OSU  +9 ISU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -7 OSU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -6 OSU on road ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OSU  -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     OSU -10 KSU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU  +15 OSU on road (+18 neutral court)     KU   +8 OSU on road (+11 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  +1 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)     OSU  -1 UT  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +6 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +4 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
OSU -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     OSU -11 BU  at home (-14 neutral court)
KU   -3 OSU on road (  0 neutral court)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)

KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
OSU  -5 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)     OSU  +8 TTU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +4 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU  -23 OSU on road (-20 neutral court)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU -13 TCU at home (-16 neutral court)     OSU -20 TCU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU  +17 OSU on road (+20 neutral court)     KU  +21 OSU on road (+24 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  -11 OSU on road ( -8 neutral court)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys
matched up better with Iowa State than Kansas did, whiles Kansas matched up better
with Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas, and TCU than did Oklahoma State.  The rest
produced mixed results.  The average is 5.8 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter
of 12.6 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading scorer        Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading rebounder     Mitchell Solomon          forward
Most assists          Brandon Averette          guard
Most steals           Tavarius Shine            guard
Most blocks           Yankuba Sima              forward
Most turnovers        Kendall Smith             guard
Most fouls            Mitchell Solomon          forward

                                                          24-6           17-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.05   79   73                #  6   #  6     # 51   # 12 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.35   79   73       71.1     #  7   #  6     # 52   # 12 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.96   79   73                #  7   #  6     # 54   # 12 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.61   77   74                # 14   #  6     # 39   # 12 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +6.36   79   73                                           
Sagarin Combo           +6.87   79   72                #  3   #  9     # 56   # 11
Sagarin Elo             +7.20   79   72                #  3   #  9     # 56   # 11
Sagarin Blue            +6.62   79   72                #  6   #  9     # 54   # 11
performance adjust      +6.79   79   72            
trend adjust            +4.28   78   74            
Massey                  +3.00   78   75       60.0     #  9   #  3     # 53   # 27 
Pomeroy                 +4.35   77   72                #  9   #  9     # 61   # 25
Greenfield              +3.00   78   75                #  7   #  2     # 50   # 27
Dunkel                  +2.00   80   78                # 14            # 62       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +5.50   79   73.5                                         
Real Time RPI           +3.00   80   77                #  4   #  6     # 95   # 59 
Real Time GAMER         +3.00   80   77       55.7     #  4   #  6     # 95   # 59 
Dolphin Predictive      +4.52   78   74       65.0     #  7   #  5     # 55   # 31
ESPN BPI                +7.30                 75.1     #  7   # 10     # 67   # 11
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   78   73       78.0     #  4   #  3     #135   # 22
Whitlock                +5.77                          #  8   #  3     # 60   # 31       
DPPI                      .                            #      #        #      #   
Colley Matrix           +9.47                          #  4   #  2     # 67   # 39
CBN RPI                                                #  5   #  3     # 96   # 72
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  1     # 67   # 37
common opponents        +5.83                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +5.25 +/- 1.87

Here is Kansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #213 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.45    +9.55
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.37    -0.37
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.83   +17.17
HOME   #250 Texas Southern             114  71   +29.02   +13.98
HOME   #158 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.58   +20.42
HOME   #115 Toledo                      96  58   +19.55   +18.45
NEUT   # 47 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.86    +7.14
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.29   -26.29
HOME   # 40 Arizona State               85  95   +10.38   -20.38
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.83    -6.83
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.23   +14.77
AWAY   # 87 Stanford                    75  54    +9.90   +11.10
AWAY   # 38 Texas                       92  86    +3.97    +2.03
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.17   -18.17
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +1.63    +2.37
HOME   # 83 Iowa State                  83  78   +16.07   -11.07
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                73  72   +11.27   -10.27
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -1.98    +6.98
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      70  67    +8.72    -5.72
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.53    -8.53
HOME   # 29 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.41    +1.59
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                70  56    +4.95    +9.05
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.67   -17.67
HOME   # 17 TCU                         71  64    +7.95    -0.95
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      64  80    +2.40   -18.40
AWAY   # 83 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.75    -3.75
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               77  69    +4.34    +3.66
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.85   +20.15
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.15    +2.15
HOME   # 38 Texas                       80  70   +10.29    -0.29
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +6.35             0.711

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 Pepperdine                  78  47   +19.83   +11.17
HOME   #304 Charlotte                   83  65   +23.06    -5.06
HOME   #234 Oral Roberts                91  48   +18.39   +24.61
NEUT   # 29 Texas A&M                   55  72    -3.26   -13.74
NEUT   #189 Pittsburgh                  73  67   +12.45    -6.45
HOME   #328 Houston Baptist            101  74   +26.06    +0.94
HOME   #217 Austin Peay                 79  63   +17.34    -1.34
HOME   #347 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      83  62   +31.30   -10.30
HOME   # 13 Wichita State               66  78    -2.97    -9.03
NEUT   # 32 Florida State               71  70    -3.17    +4.17
HOME   #104 Tulsa                       71  59    +9.02    +2.98
HOME   #266 UTRGV                      102  83   +20.38    -1.38
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               79  85    -5.17    -0.83
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                    89 109    -5.98   -14.02
HOME   # 83 Iowa State                  96  87    +6.56    +2.44
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                82  86    -4.56    +0.56
HOME   # 38 Texas                       65  64    +0.78    +0.22
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      60  76    -7.11    -8.89
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                    83  81    +0.34    +1.66
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  70  75    -9.66    +4.66
AWAY   # 34 Arkansas                    65  66    -6.03    +5.03
HOME   # 17 TCU                         66  79    -1.56   -11.44
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      84  79   -12.67   +17.67
HOME   # 24 Baylor                      56  67    -0.79   -10.21
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               88  85   -11.49   +14.49
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                72  82    +1.76   -11.76
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         70  90    -7.88   -12.12
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  79  71    -3.34   +11.34
AWAY   # 38 Texas                       64  65    -5.54    +4.54
AWAY   # 83 Iowa State                  80  71    +0.24    +8.76
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -6.35             0.289