Big 12 projection, Round 17

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

Baylor's easy win over Oklahoma caused them to swap places in the projected standings.
No other changes.  Now that we're down to the final game of the conference season, the
fractional projected win is just the probability of winning that final game.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
#  6  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85  13.52  13.69  13.07  13.61  12.55  12.78
#  8  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44  11.80  12.29  11.66  10.64  11.04  11.55
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49  11.76  10.61  10.72  11.05  11.77  11.98
# 45  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17   8.05   8.63   9.46   9.00   8.47   9.23
# 17  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06   8.41   7.88   8.58   9.07   8.33   8.13
# 24  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15   7.57   7.47   6.58   6.20   6.48   7.07
# 36  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46  10.53   9.88  10.60  10.79  10.33   9.86
# 37  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04   8.77   8.09   8.37   8.30   8.82   8.02
# 52  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18   5.72   6.42   6.28   5.80   6.92   6.32
# 80  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16   3.87   5.04   4.68   5.54   5.29   5.06

                      Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  Rd 17
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  6  Kansas          12.06  12.32  12.73  13.01  13.53  13.71   13  4  @OSU (Sa)   KU  by  6.3
#  8  West Virginia   10.63  10.96  10.56  11.07  11.23  11.59   11  6  @UT  (Sa)   WVU by  2.8
# 11  Texas Tech      12.49  12.82  12.31  11.58  11.06  10.70   10  7   TCU (Sa)   TTU by  5.0
# 45  Kansas State     8.65   9.33   9.63  10.12   9.79   9.52    9  8   BU  (Sa)   KSU by  0.6
# 17  TCU              8.44   8.09   8.34   8.72   9.05   9.30    9  8  @TTU (Sa)   
# 24  Baylor           7.85   8.42   8.93   8.42   8.09   8.48    8  9  @KSU (Sa)   
# 36  Oklahoma         9.14   8.84   8.09   7.81   8.15   7.78    7 10   ISU (Sa)   OU  by  9.1
# 37  Texas            7.69   7.09   7.83   7.35   7.60   7.41    7 10   WVU (Sa)   
# 52  Oklahoma State   7.25   6.58   6.33   7.03   6.77   7.29    7 10   KU  (Sa)   
# 80  Iowa State       5.80   5.55   5.25   4.89   4.73   4.22    4 13  @OU  (Sa)   

Oklahoma is the only 7-10 team that is favored in its final game.  Many consider a conference
record of 8-10 to be the threshold for earning an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament.
Texas and Oklahoma State face the conference's top two teams, though both are at home, but
are in danger of falling to 7-11.  Both have something to play for.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
OU  over ISU   9.1
KU  over OSU   6.3
TTU over TCU   5.0
WVU over UT    2.8
KSU over BU    0.6

Yours truly's trend analysis won honors for best prognostications in Round 17, the third win of the
season for it.  Honorable mention to Greenfield for being just 0.1 points worse.  Actually, considering
that Greenfield quantizes margins at the 0.5 point level, he could have won.  Dunkel's and Vegas'
margins are also quantized at the 0.5 point level.  Massey's margins are quantized at the 1.0 point
level, as are Real Time's, and Seven Overtimes'.  Sagarin retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over UT   10.3   8.0   8.5  10.5  12.5   9.0   9.6  13.4   9.6  12.0   7.0  17.0  11.1  10.6  11.2
TCU over KSU   6.5   7.0   6.2   6.5   8.0   6.5   7.0   5.3   6.6   8.4   5.0  10.0   7.0   6.5   9.1
WVU over TTU   4.8   4.0   2.6   6.5   9.0   5.5   4.0   2.3   2.0   6.2   6.0   5.0   3.7   3.3   6.0
BU  over OU    3.6   5.0   3.7   3.5  -1.0   4.5   4.4   0.5   2.4   5.0   1.0   6.0   3.1   2.6   7.2
ISU over OSU   0.5   2.0   0.2  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.5   0.4   0.0   1.6   3.0   6.0  -0.9  -1.4  -0.2

     Reality  Er1or              0.5    1                             2     6     1         2.5     3
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        10     0.3   2.0   1.5   0.5   2.5   1.0   0.4   3.4   0.4   2.0   3.0   7.0   1.1   0.6   1.2
         7     0.5   0.0   0.8   0.5   1.0   0.5   0.0   1.7   0.4   1.4   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.5   2.1
        10     5.2   6.0   7.4   3.5   1.0   4.5   6.0   7.7   8.0   3.8   4.0   5.0   6.3   6.7   4.0
        23    19.4  18.0  19.3  19.5  24.0  18.5  18.6  22.5  20.6  18.0  22.0  17.0  19.9  20.4  15.8
        -9     9.5  11.0   9.2   8.0  10.0   8.0   9.5   9.4   9.0  10.6  12.0  15.0   8.1   7.6   8.8

total         34.9  37.0  38.2  32.0  38.5  32.5  34.5  44.7  38.4  35.8  43.0  47.0  35.4  35.8  31.9
previous     700.3 741.0 721.7 707.5 727.5 722.5 723.2 793.9 737.8 717.5 728.0 815.0 723.2 726.8 771.7
cumulative   735.2 778.0 759.9 739.5 766.0 755.0 757.7 838.6 776.2 753.3 771.0 862.0 758.6 762.6 803.6
per game       8.6   9.2   8.9   8.7   9.0   8.9   8.9   9.9   9.1   8.9   9.1  10.1   8.9   9.0   9.5

No road wins were projected for Round 17, but one occurred, though not surprisingly, as it
was really a toss-up game.  Two road wins are projected for Round 18, and if they both come
about, we'll be right at the long-term average of one in three.

Road wins (28 out of 85)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Kansas         UT  TCU WVU KSU ISU TTU   1 Texas Tech     KU                    +4 Kansas        
4 Kansas State   ISU BU  UT  OSU           2 Kansas         TTU OSU               +2 Texas Tech    
4 West Virginia  OSU KSU OU  BU            2 Oklahoma       WVU UT                +2 West Virginia 
3 Oklahoma State KU  WVU ISU               2 West Virginia  WVU OSU               +1 Kansas State
3 TCU            BU  OSU ISU               3 Baylor         TCU KSU WVU            0 TCU           
3 Texas Tech     KU  TCU KSU               3 Kansas State   WVU KU  TTU           -1 Baylor        
2 Baylor         OSU UT                    3 TCU            OU  KU  TTU           -1 Oklahoma      
2 Texas          ISU OU                    3 Texas          KU  KSU BU            -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma       TCU                       4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU  KSU       -1 Texas         
0 Iowa State                               5 Iowa State     KSU UT  KU  TCU OSU   -5 Iowa State    

Oklahoma's trend is decidedly negative.  Among the other nine teams, only Kansas has
a marginally significant trend.  Only Kansas and Iowa State have statistically
significant mental toughness ratings.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.12    TCU               7.95    
TCU             +0.53    Texas             9.15    
Kansas          +0.40    Oklahoma State    9.85    
West Virginia   +0.21    Kansas State     10.23    
Kansas State    +0.06    Baylor           10.38    
Oklahoma         0.00    Oklahoma         10.80    
Oklahoma State  -0.05    Texas Tech       10.83    
Baylor          -0.14    Iowa State       12.52    
Texas           -0.39    Kansas           12.85    
Iowa State      -1.50    West Virginia    14.28    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.25 +/- 0.28    Iowa State      +0.36 +/- 0.19
Baylor          +0.13 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma State  +0.01 +/- 0.15
TCU             +0.13 +/- 0.17    Texas Tech       0.00 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  +0.07 +/- 0.21    Texas           -0.03 +/- 0.15
West Virginia   +0.06 +/- 0.31    TCU             -0.04 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.22    Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.19    Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      -0.22 +/- 0.23    West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.32 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma        -0.18 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        -0.55 +/- 0.22    Kansas          -0.51 +/- 0.28

Five of the top six strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.  Kansas State fell one spot short
of being in the Top 25 like everybody else in the conference.  It's unclear whether playing
Baylor at home will be enough to get them into the Top 25.  Then again, we have the conference
tournament next week, which will add to everybody's strength of schedule.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        85.97   Texas Tech      64.63   Oklahoma        168.93   West Virginia   +11.07   
TCU             83.30   Kansas State    67.87   TCU             160.07   Texas Tech      +10.50   
Kansas          81.50   Texas           68.23   Kansas          152.87   Kansas          +10.13   
West Virginia   79.93   West Virginia   68.87   Oklahoma State  150.23   TCU              +6.53   
Oklahoma State  76.23   Baylor          69.28   Iowa State      149.10   Baylor           +5.31   
Texas Tech      75.13   Kansas          71.37   West Virginia   148.80   Kansas State     +4.40   
Baylor          74.59   Oklahoma State  74.00   Baylor          143.86   Oklahoma         +3.00   
Iowa State      73.03   Iowa State      76.07   Kansas State    140.13   Texas            +2.80   
Kansas State    72.27   TCU             76.77   Texas Tech      139.77   Oklahoma State   +2.23   
Texas           71.03   Oklahoma        82.97   Texas           139.27   Iowa State       -3.03   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma        82.77 ( 1)
Texas           82.05 ( 2)
Baylor          81.65 ( 3)
Kansas          81.46 ( 5)
Iowa State      81.18 ( 6)
Oklahoma State  80.82 (10)
West Virginia   80.32 (15)
TCU             80.21 (17)
Texas Tech      79.99 (22)
Kansas State    79.72 (26)