predictions for Texas game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

We started the conference season with Texas, and here it is, the second-last game
of the conference season before we get the rematch in Allen Field House.  For the
second consecutive game, we have an opposing player hobbled by a bum toe.  It will
be interesting to see if it affects Mo Bamba's play as much as much as it did
Keenan Evans' play.  I don't understand why it's considered questionable whether
Bamba will even suit up for the game; after all, he played 15 minutes on Saturday
with his sprained toe.

We just finished playing the conference's stingiest defense, yet we somehow managed
to hang 41 points on the Red Raiders in the first half, and now we get the
conference's second-stingiest defense.

Under normal circumstances, I'd consider today's game a trap game.  Those last
three were as brutal a stretch as you can imagine (though Oklahoma has faded a
bit).  But hey, it's Senior Night, and the Jayhawks have the opportunity to win
the conference outright in front of the home crowd.  Devonte and Svi may come out
a little tight, being their last home game, but I expect them to put on a show
eventually.  Part of me thinks this could be a beatdown as bad as Oklahoma last
week, especially if Bamba and Jones do not play.  But if they do play, it's less
likely that Kansas will run away with the game.  Coincidentally, the only two
teams that could potentially share the crown with Kansas will be playing each
other at the same time as Kansas is playing Texas.  You think they'll be keeping
an eye on the Kansas score?  Great game as long as Texas keeps it close?
Deflating if Kansas runs away with it?

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Texas grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two, namely steals
per game, and personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, namely all the other eight conference members.
Using just the home-home and road-road permutations in those cases where both teams
have finished their season series with the opponents, plus the results of the
head-to-head game in Austin, we have seventeen scores to compare:

KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
UT   +4 ISU on road ( +7 neutral court)     UT  +16 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU   +5 UT  at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   -8 UT  at home (-11 neutral court)

KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
UT   -9 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     UT   -1 BU  at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU   -4 UT  at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   +7 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
UT   +1 TCU at home ( -2 neutral court)     UT  -16 TCU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   +9 UT  at home ( +6 neutral court)     KU  +23 UT  at home (+20 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
UT   -1 OSU on road ( +2 neutral court)     UT   +1 OSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -7 UT  at home (-10 neutral court)     KU   -3 UT  at home ( -6 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)     KU   +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
UT   +9 TTU at home ( +6 neutral court)     UT   -2 TTU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -18 UT  at home (-21 neutral court)     KU   +7 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)     KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
UT  -35 WVU on road (-32 neutral court)     UT  -35 WVU on road (-32 neutral court)
KU  +40 UT  at home (+37 neutral court)     KU  +43 UT  at home (+40 neutral court)

KU  +30 OU  at home (+27 neutral court)     KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
UT   +5 OU  at home ( +2 neutral court)     UT  +11 OU  on road (+14 neutral court)
KU  +28 UT  at home (+25 neutral court)     KU  -13 UT  at home (-16 neutral court)

KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     
UT   -3 KSU at home ( -6 neutral court)     UT  -10 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +7 UT  at home ( +4 neutral court)     KU  +27 UT  at home (+24 neutral court)

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +12 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)

Eleven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor Texas.  The average is
9.1 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 17.9 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Dylan Osetkowski          forward
Leading scorer        Dylan Osetkowski          forward
Leading rebounder     Mohamed Bamba             forward
Most assists          Matt Coleman              guard
Most steals           Kerwin Roach Jr.          guard
Most blocks           Mohamed Bamba             forward
Most turnovers        Kerwin Roach Jr.          guard
Most fouls            Matt Coleman              guard
Least functional toes Mo Bamba                  forward

Mo Bamba has a sprained left toe, and it is unclear whether he will even suit up
for the game against Kansas.  Eric Davis Jr. is being held out of games pending
an internal investigation stemming from the FBI probe.  Note that other schools
have done similar investigations involving their players mentioned in the FBI
probe and already cleared them for play, so Davis could become available on
very short notice.  One Longhorn who cannot become available on short notice
is Andrew Jones, who is undergoing treatment for leukemia, and I hope the
treatments are successful; what a terrible condition for someone in the prime
of their life to have.

                                                          23-6           17-12  
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +9.99   78   68                #  6   #  5     # 37   #  3 
Sagarin Predictor      +10.29   78   68       81.7     #  6   #  5     # 38   #  3 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.92   77   69                #  7   #  5     # 34   #  3 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.92   78   68                # 13   #  5     # 49   #  3 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +10.58   76   65                                           
Sagarin Combo          +12.31   79   67                #  3   #  7     # 40   #  3
Sagarin Elo            +13.51   80   66                #  2   #  7     # 40   #  3
Sagarin Blue           +11.19   79   67                #  6   #  7     # 42   #  3
performance adjust     +11.07   79   67            
trend adjust           +11.23   79   67            
Massey                  +8.00   74   66       78.0     # 10   #  2     # 45   # 10 
Pomeroy                 +8.47   75   66                #  9   #  8     # 43   #  7
Greenfield             +10.50   76   65.5              #  7   #  2     # 37   # 10
Dunkel                 +12.50   73   61                # 14            # 49       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   74.5 65.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +17.00   86   69                #  5   #  5     # 68   # 18 
Real Time GAMER        +17.00   86   69       76.5     #  5   #  5     # 18   # 70 
Dolphin Predictive      +9.63   74   64       80.5     #  8   #  3     # 44   # 12
ESPN BPI               +12.00                 87.0     #  7   # 11     # 41   #  3
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   77   70       88.0     #  6   #  5     # 35   # 11
Whitlock                +9.64                          #  8   #  4     # 42   # 11       
DPPI                      .                            #      #        #      #   
Colley Matrix          +13.35                          #  4   #  2     # 56   # 15
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  3     # 55   # 22
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  3     # 33   # 11
common opponents        +9.12                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +10.97 +/- 2.51

Here is Kansas' season; both remaining games are projected wins, and the
projected season record now rounds up to 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             92  56   +26.19    +9.81
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.54    -0.54
HOME   # 89 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.81   +17.19
HOME   #254 Texas Southern             114  71   +29.16   +13.84
HOME   #160 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.62   +20.38
HOME   #120 Toledo                      96  58   +20.01   +17.99
NEUT   # 46 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.51    +7.49
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.27   -26.27
HOME   # 43 Arizona State               85  95   +10.75   -20.75
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.54    -6.54
HOME   #269 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.21   +14.79
AWAY   # 87 Stanford                    75  54   +10.02   +10.98
AWAY   # 38 Texas                       92  86    +3.94    +2.06
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.08   -18.08
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +1.64    +2.36
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.60   -10.60
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                73  72   +11.29   -10.29
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -1.88    +6.88
HOME   # 26 Baylor                      70  67    +9.30    -6.30
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                    80  85    +3.30    -8.30
HOME   # 28 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.44    +1.56
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                70  56    +4.93    +9.07
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.95   -17.95
HOME   # 17 TCU                         71  64    +8.00    -1.00
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      64  80    +2.94   -18.94
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  83  77    +9.24    -3.24
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.48    +3.52
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                   104  74    +9.66   +20.34
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  74  72    -0.28    +2.28
HOME   # 38 Texas                                +10.30             0.817
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        +6.59             0.715

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #344 Northwestern State         105  59   +33.12   +12.88
HOME   #255 New Hampshire               78  60   +22.05    -4.05
HOME   #182 Lipscomb                    80  57   +17.20    +5.80
NEUT   # 23 Butler                      61  48    -1.50   +14.50
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        78  85    -9.98    +2.98
NEUT   # 10 Gonzaga                     71  76    -4.51    -0.49
HOME   #343 Florida A&M                 82  58   +32.47    -8.47
AWAY   #113 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       71  67    +5.96    -1.96
HOME   # 14 Michigan                    52  59    +0.28    -7.28
HOME   #151 Louisiana Tech              75  60   +14.76    +0.24
HOME   #211 Tennessee State             47  46   +19.07   -18.07
NEUT   # 47 Alabama                     66  50    +1.46   +14.54
HOME   #  6 Kansas                      86  92    -3.94    -2.06
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  74  70    +2.12    +1.88
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      60  69    -4.18    -4.82
HOME   # 17 TCU                         99  98    +0.88    +0.12
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State              64  65    -0.53    -0.47
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  67  58    -1.04   +10.04
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               51  86    -9.00   -26.00
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                  73  57    +8.48    +7.52
HOME   # 92 Mississippi                 85  72    +9.86    +3.14
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  71  73    -7.40    +5.40
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                    79  74    +2.54    +2.46
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                64  67    +4.17    -7.17
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         71  87    -5.48   -10.52
HOME   # 26 Baylor                      73  74    +2.18    -3.18
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                    77  66    -3.82   +14.82
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                48  58    -2.19    -7.81
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State              65  64    +5.83    -4.83
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -10.30             0.183
HOME   #  9 West Virginia                         -2.64             0.415