Big 12 projection, Round 16

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

West Virginia's win over Iowa State, coupled with Texas Tech's home loss to Kansas, enabled
the Mountaineers to reclaim second place over the Red Raiders.  Oklahoma's win over Kansas
State, coupled with Baylor's loss at TCU, enabled the Sooners to reclaim sixth place over
the Bears.  No other changes.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
#  6  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85  13.52  13.69  13.07  13.61  12.55
#  9  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44  11.80  12.29  11.66  10.64  11.04
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49  11.76  10.61  10.72  11.05  11.77
# 45  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17   8.05   8.63   9.46   9.00   8.47
# 17  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06   8.41   7.88   8.58   9.07   8.33
# 32  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46  10.53   9.88  10.60  10.79  10.33
# 27  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15   7.57   7.47   6.58   6.20   6.48
# 40  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04   8.77   8.09   8.37   8.30   8.82
# 53  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18   5.72   6.42   6.28   5.80   6.92
# 78  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16   3.87   5.04   4.68   5.54   5.29

                      Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  6  Kansas          12.78  12.06  12.32  12.73  13.01  13.53   12  4   UTU (Mo)   KU  by 10.3
#  9  West Virginia   11.55  10.63  10.96  10.56  11.07  11.23   10  6   TTU (Mo)   WVU by  4.8
# 11  Texas Tech      11.98  12.49  12.82  12.31  11.58  11.06   10  6  @WVU (Mo)   
# 45  Kansas State     9.23   8.65   9.33   9.63  10.12   9.79    9  7  @TCU (Tu)   
# 17  TCU              8.13   8.44   8.09   8.34   8.72   9.05    8  8   KSU (Tu)   TCU by  6.5
# 32  Oklahoma         9.86   9.14   8.84   8.09   7.81   8.15    7  9  @BU  (Tu)   
# 27  Baylor           7.07   7.85   8.42   8.93   8.42   8.09    7  9   OU  (Tu)   BU  by  3.5
# 40  Texas            8.02   7.69   7.09   7.83   7.35   7.60    7  9  @KU  (Mo)   
# 53  Oklahoma State   6.32   7.25   6.58   6.33   7.03   6.77    6 10  @ISU (Tu)   
# 78  Iowa State       5.06   5.80   5.55   5.25   4.89   4.73    4 12   OSU (Tu)   ISU by  0.5

Iowa State could end Oklahoma State's tournament hopes, as the Cowboys need to win both of their
last two games to reach 8-10 in conference, widely considered to be the threshold for receiving
an at-large big to the Dance.  Kansas will have something to say about that as well next weekend.

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over UT     10.3
TCU over KSU     6.5
WVU over TTU     4.8
BU  over OU      3.5
ISU over OSU     0.5

Greenfield and my home court adjustment to Sagarin shared honors for best prognostications in
Round 16.  Sagarin retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
WVU over ISU  14.3  13.0  13.1  16.5  13.0  16.5  14.7  12.1  13.0  19.5  12.0  20.0  16.0  15.5  13.6
UT  over OSU   6.1   7.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   6.5   5.5   4.6   5.9   8.5   8.0  11.0   5.9   5.4   4.7
OU  over KSU   4.6   4.0   3.5   5.5   0.0   4.0   3.9   1.1   3.2   4.9   2.0  10.0   4.6   4.2  -0.2
TCU over BU    4.2   6.0   4.7   5.5  -1.0   4.5   5.2   7.3   5.9   6.0   6.0  12.0   4.9   4.5   5.9
TTU over KU    0.4   5.0   3.4   2.5  -1.5   2.0   2.9  -0.5   2.4   3.0   2.0   8.0   1.3   0.8   3.1

     Reality  Er1or              0.5    1                             2     6     1         2.5     2
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        15     0.7   2.0   1.9   1.5   2.0   1.5   0.3   2.9   2.0   4.5   3.0   5.0   1.0   0.5   1.4
         1     5.1   6.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   5.5   4.5   3.6   4.9   7.5   7.0  10.0   4.9   4.4   3.7
         9     4.4   5.0   5.5   3.5   9.0   5.0   5.1   7.9   5.8   4.1   7.0   1.0   4.4   4.8   9.2
        10     5.8   4.0   5.3   4.5  11.0   5.5   4.8   2.7   4.1   4.0   4.0   2.0   5.1   5.5   4.1
        -2     2.4   7.0   5.4   4.5   0.5   4.0   4.9   1.5   4.4   5.0   4.0  10.0   3.3   2.8   5.1

total         18.4  24.0  23.1  18.0  24.5  21.5  19.6  18.6  21.2  25.1  25.0  28.0  18.7  18.0  23.5
previous     681.9 717.0 698.6 689.5 703.0 701.0 703.6 775.3 716.6 692.4 703.0 787.0 704.5 708.8 748.2
cumulative   700.3 741.0 721.7 707.5 727.5 722.5 723.2 793.9 737.8 717.5 728.0 815.0 723.2 726.8 771.7
per game       8.8   9.3   9.0   8.8   9.1   9.0   9.0   9.9   9.2   9.0   9.1  10.2   9.0   9.1   9.6

No road wins were projected for Round 16, but one occurred, and it gave Kansas the crown.
No road wins are projected for Round 17.  Three road wins in the last ten games will put
us right on the long-term average of one in three, but they might have to come in the
season finale.  Let's hope Kansas gets one of them in Stillwater.

Road wins (27 out of 80)                    Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
6 Kansas         UT  TCU WVU KSU ISU TTU    1 Texas Tech     KU                 +4 Kansas        
4 Kansas State   ISU BU  UT  OSU            2 Kansas         TTU OSU            +2 Texas Tech    
4 West Virginia  OSU KSU OU  BU             2 Oklahoma       WVU UT             +2 West Virginia 
3 TCU            BU  OSU ISU                2 West Virginia  WVU OSU            +1 Kansas State
3 Texas Tech     KU  TCU KSU                3 Baylor         TCU KSU WVU         0 TCU           
2 Baylor         OSU UT                     3 Kansas State   WVU KU  TTU        -1 Baylor        
2 Oklahoma State KU  WVU                    3 TCU            OU  KU  TTU        -1 Oklahoma      
2 Texas          ISU OU                     3 Texas          KU  KSU BU         -1 Texas         
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        4 Iowa State     KSU UT  KU  TCU    -2 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State                                4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU  KSU    -4 Iowa State    

Three consecutive above-expectation performances have almost eliminated the statistical
significance of the negative trend for Kansas.  Oklahoma ended their losing streak and
closed the gap in the trend statistic.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.23    TCU               8.02    
TCU             +0.55    Texas             9.42    
Kansas          +0.41    Baylor            9.91    
West Virginia   +0.18    Oklahoma State    9.91    
Oklahoma        +0.15    Oklahoma         10.43    
Kansas State    +0.07    Kansas State     10.44    
Oklahoma State  -0.11    Texas Tech       10.93    
Baylor          -0.30    Iowa State       12.71    
Texas           -0.38    Kansas           13.09    
Iowa State      -1.49    West Virginia    14.52    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.33 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      +0.36 +/- 0.20
TCU             +0.14 +/- 0.18    Texas Tech      +0.02 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   +0.03 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma State  +0.01 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  +0.01 +/- 0.22    Texas           -0.03 +/- 0.16
Baylor           0.00 +/- 0.24    TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.24    Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.15
Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.21    Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      -0.20 +/- 0.24    West Virginia   -0.11 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.34 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        -0.13 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        -0.46 +/- 0.23    Kansas          -0.51 +/- 0.28

Now six teams in the Top 10 in strength of schedule; all are in the Top 40.  Texas Tech at
West Virginia ought to get the Red Raiders into the Top 25.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        86.68   Texas Tech      64.03   Oklahoma        169.57   West Virginia   +11.24   
TCU             83.97   Texas           67.90   TCU             161.28   Texas Tech      +11.07   
Kansas          81.62   Kansas State    68.00   Kansas          152.97   Kansas          +10.28   
West Virginia   79.86   West Virginia   68.62   Oklahoma State  150.21   TCU              +6.66   
Oklahoma State  76.03   Baylor          69.39   Iowa State      149.04   Baylor           +4.82   
Texas Tech      75.10   Kansas          71.34   West Virginia   148.48   Kansas State     +4.66   
Baylor          74.21   Oklahoma State  74.17   Baylor          143.61   Oklahoma         +3.79   
Iowa State      73.18   Iowa State      75.86   Kansas State    140.66   Texas            +3.10   
Kansas State    72.66   TCU             77.31   Texas Tech      139.14   Oklahoma State   +1.86   
Texas           71.00   Oklahoma        82.89   Texas           138.90   Iowa State       -2.68   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma        82.45 ( 1)
Baylor          81.65 ( 2)
Texas           81.64 ( 3)
Kansas          81.43 ( 5)
Iowa State      81.19 ( 7)
Oklahoma State  80.76 (10)
TCU             80.22 (15)
West Virginia   80.10 (16)
Texas Tech      79.50 (29)
Kansas State    79.29 (37)