×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas Tech game
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 653
- Thank you received: 3457
7 years 6 months ago #16724
by asteroid
Who thought the Big 12 championship would come down to a toe? Texas Tech just
hasn't been the same since Keenan Evans injured his toe. Or so it seems. More
on that below.
Win today, and the streak of conference championships reaches a record-breaking
fourteen. Lose, and we're tied for the lead with two games to play, both
projected wins for Kansas, while Tech has a projected loss at West Virginia.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of them,
namely average score margin, assists per game, effective field goal percentage,
and turnover percentage. Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in just three, namely defensive rebounds per gmae, blocks per game,
and personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, namely all the other eight conference members.
Using just the home-home and road-road permutations in those cases where both teams
have finished their season series with the opponents, plus the results of the
head-to-head game in Lawrence, we have seventeen scores to compare:
KU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU -16 BU on road (-13 neutral court)
TTU +24 BU at home (+21 neutral court) TTU -2 BU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -24 TTU on road (-21 neutral court) KU -17 TTU on road (-14 neutral court)
KU +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)
TTU +16 KSU at home (+13 neutral court) TTU +19 KSU on road (+22 neutral court)
KU -18 TTU on road (-15 neutral court) KU -8 TTU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU +30 OU at home (+27 neutral court)
TTU -10 OU on road ( -7 neutral court) TTU +10 OU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +2 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court) KU +17 TTU on road (+20 neutral court)
KU +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court) KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
TTU +1 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court) TTU +1 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +4 TTU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +7 TTU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court)
TTU -9 UT on road ( -6 neutral court) TTU +2 UT at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +12 TTU on road (+15 neutral court) KU +7 TTU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
TTU -18 ISU on road (-15 neutral court) TTU +18 ISU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU +21 TTU on road (+24 neutral court) KU -16 TTU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court) KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
TTU +5 OSU at home ( +2 neutral court) TTU -8 OSU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU -13 TTU on road (-10 neutral court) KU -6 TTU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
TTU +12 TCU on road (+15 neutral court) TTU +12 TCU on road (+15 neutral court)
KU -11 TTU on road ( -8 neutral court) KU -14 TTU on road (-11 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KU -18 TTU on road (-15 neutral court)
Ten of the comparisons favor Texas Tech, while eight favor Kansas. Texas Tech was
the better team against Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU, while Kansas
was the better team against Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas. Iowa State was a
wash. Anyway, the average favors Texas Tech by 4.4 points, but with a scatter of
13.7 points.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Keenan Evans guard
Leading scorer Keenan Evans guard
Leading rebounder Norense Odiase center
Most assists Keenan Evans guard
Most steals Keenan Evans guard
Most blocks Zhaire Smith guard
Most turnovers Keenan Evans guard
Most fouls Norense Odiase center
Least functional toes Keenan Evans guard
A lot of people blame Tech's losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State on Keenan Evans'
injured toe. However, Tech actually outscored Baylor in the second half, when
Evans sat; Baylor won the game with their first-half effort, while Evans was
fine. What we don't know is the nature of the toe injury, and whether playing
against Oklahoma State might have inhibited the healing process. He may very
well not be at 100 percent.
22-6 22-6
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas Tech
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +0.07 73 73 # 6 # 5 # 13 # 37
Sagarin Predictor -0.40 73 73 48.7 # 7 # 5 # 10 # 37
Sagarin Golden Mean -0.70 73 73 # 8 # 5 # 13 # 37
Sagarin Recent Games +4.31 75 71 # 15 # 5 # 62 # 37
Sagarin Off-Def Meth -2.41 69 71
Sagarin Combo -0.44 73 73 # 4 # 8 # 14 # 37
Sagarin Elo +0.25 73 73 # 4 # 8 # 17 # 37
Sagarin Blue -1.58 72 74 # 6 # 8 # 10 # 37
performance adjust -1.28 72 74
trend adjust -3.10 71 75
Massey -5.00 68 73 31.0 # 11 # 6 # 12 # 32
Pomeroy -3.44 70 74 # 11 # 9 # 10 # 47
Greenfield -2.00 70 72 # 7 # 5 # 13 # 19
Dunkel +1.50 74 73 # 14 # 9
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.00 69.5 71.5
Real Time RPI -8.00 71 79 # 7 # 7 # 18 # 70
Real Time GAMER -8.00 71 79 36.1 # 7 # 7 # 18 # 70
Dolphin Predictive -2.90 69 73 39.9 # 9 # 7 # 10 # 18
ESPN BPI -3.00 38.8 # 8 # 16 # 12 # 43
Seven Overtimes -2.00 72 74 49.0 # 8 # 3 # 40 # 58
Whitlock -2.42 # 10 # 6 # 11 # 45
DPPI . # # # #
Colley Matrix +0.53 # 5 # 3 # 16 # 54
CBN RPI # 7 # 4 # 17 # 70
LRMC # 9 # 2 # 11 # 53
common opponents -4.41
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -2.02 +/- 2.76
The various prognostications are mixed, but the average favors Texas Tech by
2 points, though the scatter is larger than that. Somebody's streak is going
to end. Tech has a long home-court winning streak, while Self hasn't been
swept by a conference opponent in a very long time.
Here is Kansas' season; the game in Lubbock is the only remaining projected
loss, and the projected season record remains at 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #200 Tennessee State 92 56 +25.74 +10.26
NEUT # 16 Kentucky 65 61 +4.83 -0.83
HOME # 93 South Dakota State 98 64 +16.88 +17.12
HOME #259 Texas Southern 114 71 +29.50 +13.50
HOME #159 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +22.44 +20.56
HOME #118 Toledo 96 58 +19.94 +18.06
NEUT # 47 Syracuse 76 60 +8.39 +7.61
HOME # 97 Washington 65 74 +17.58 -26.58
HOME # 42 Arizona State 85 95 +10.45 -20.45
AWAY # 66 Nebraska 73 72 +7.77 -6.77
HOME #263 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +29.58 +15.42
AWAY # 83 Stanford 75 54 +9.80 +11.20
AWAY # 38 Texas 92 86 +3.71 +2.29
HOME # 10 Texas Tech 73 85 +5.94 -17.94
AWAY # 18 TCU 88 84 +1.72 +2.28
HOME # 77 Iowa State 83 78 +15.46 -10.46
HOME # 45 Kansas State 73 72 +11.11 -10.11
AWAY # 9 West Virginia 71 66 -1.98 +6.98
HOME # 27 Baylor 70 67 +9.06 -6.06
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 80 85 +3.31 -8.31
HOME # 29 Texas A&M 79 68 +9.49 +1.51
AWAY # 45 Kansas State 70 56 +4.77 +9.23
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State 79 84 +12.98 -17.98
HOME # 18 TCU 71 64 +8.06 -1.06
AWAY # 27 Baylor 64 80 +2.72 -18.72
AWAY # 77 Iowa State 83 77 +9.12 -3.12
HOME # 9 West Virginia 77 69 +4.36 +3.64
HOME # 33 Oklahoma 104 74 +9.65 +20.35
AWAY # 10 Texas Tech -0.40 0.487
HOME # 38 Texas +10.05 0.806
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +6.64 0.713
Here is Texas Tech's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #223 South Alabama 75 50 +24.22 +0.78
HOME #336 Maine 83 44 +34.13 +4.87
NEUT # 85 Boston College 75 64 +10.25 +0.75
NEUT # 61 Northwestern 85 49 +7.72 +28.28
HOME #174 Wofford 79 56 +20.81 +2.19
HOME #329 Savannah State 103 69 +32.91 +1.09
NEUT # 34 Seton Hall 79 89 +3.72 -13.72
HOME # 39 Nevada 82 76 +7.30 -1.30
HOME #288 Kennesaw State 82 53 +28.50 +0.50
HOME #291 Rice 73 53 +28.62 -8.62
HOME #268 Florida Atlantic 90 54 +27.12 +8.88
HOME #275 Abilene Christian 74 47 +27.63 -0.63
HOME # 27 Baylor 77 53 +6.29 +17.71
AWAY # 7 Kansas 85 73 -5.94 +17.94
HOME # 45 Kansas State 74 58 +8.34 +7.66
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma 65 75 +0.54 -10.54
HOME # 9 West Virginia 72 71 +1.59 -0.59
AWAY # 38 Texas 58 67 +0.94 -9.94
AWAY # 77 Iowa State 52 70 +6.35 -24.35
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State 75 70 +10.21 -5.21
AWAY # 74 South Carolina 70 63 +5.94 +1.06
HOME # 38 Texas 73 71 +7.28 -5.28
AWAY # 18 TCU 83 71 -1.05 +13.05
HOME # 77 Iowa State 76 58 +12.69 +5.31
AWAY # 45 Kansas State 66 47 +2.00 +17.00
HOME # 33 Oklahoma 88 78 +6.88 +3.12
AWAY # 27 Baylor 57 59 -0.05 -1.95
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State 71 79 +3.87 -11.87
HOME # 7 Kansas +0.40 0.513
AWAY # 9 West Virginia -4.75 0.358
HOME # 18 TCU +5.29 0.707
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page:
- konza63
-
- Offline
- Moderator
-
- c'85 Towering toward the Blue
Less
More
- Posts: 2208
- Thank you received: 1293
7 years 6 months ago #16726
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Queue the nervous "pre-game nervous energy" for the high-stakes affair soon to commence.
Not that we need to get fired up, but let's hope the boys bring locomotive-style energy and force on the court today:
(PS: This classic song would be incredible as the audio track for a great highlights reel...)
Not that we need to get fired up, but let's hope the boys bring locomotive-style energy and force on the court today:
(PS: This classic song would be incredible as the audio track for a great highlights reel...)
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- HawkErrant
-
- Offline
- Moderator
-
- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
Less
More
- Posts: 7321
- Thank you received: 5984
7 years 6 months ago #16727
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Thanks, asteroid,
Additional info
17 = Tech’s home court streak. This year Tech is 16-0 home, 4-5 road, 2-1 neutral.
17-0 = Self’s “payback game” record in Big 12 regular season games
Evans toe is broken. He will be playing, but no clue how effective he will be. Last game (road loss) he was 1-7 for 2 points. This morning on Game Day Beard said Evans was not 100% — but it is a home game.
Defensive star and rim protector Zach Smith will play in his first game since breaking his foot against KState in early January. No clue how effective he will be, either.
Anyone else got a case of the nerves going into this one?
Rock Chalk!
Additional info
17 = Tech’s home court streak. This year Tech is 16-0 home, 4-5 road, 2-1 neutral.
17-0 = Self’s “payback game” record in Big 12 regular season games
Evans toe is broken. He will be playing, but no clue how effective he will be. Last game (road loss) he was 1-7 for 2 points. This morning on Game Day Beard said Evans was not 100% — but it is a home game.
Defensive star and rim protector Zach Smith will play in his first game since breaking his foot against KState in early January. No clue how effective he will be, either.
Anyone else got a case of the nerves going into this one?
Rock Chalk!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.