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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 15
- asteroid
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6 years 2 months ago #16673
by asteroid
Baylor's home loss to West Virginia, coupled with TCU's road win over Iowa State, enabled the
Horned Frogs to move into the upper division at the expense of the Bears. No other changes.
That is, no other changes in the projected order. A big change is that Kansas opened up a
1.4 game lead over Texas Tech. If the Jayhawks win on Saturday, they clinch at least a tie
for the conference championship, a record-breaking 14th in a row, leaving Texas Tech, West
Virginia, and Kansas State as the only potential teams to share the crown. A loss would
reduce the lead to less than 0.4 games, but Tech has to play at West Virginia on Monday.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 6 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61 12.55
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05 11.77
# 9 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64 11.04
# 45 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00 8.47
# 18 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07 8.33
# 27 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20 6.48
# 31 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79 10.33
# 38 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30 8.82
# 53 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80 6.92
# 77 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54 5.29
Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 6 Kansas 12.78 12.06 12.32 12.73 13.01 11 4 @TTU (Sa)
# 11 Texas Tech 11.98 12.49 12.82 12.31 11.58 10 5 KU (Sa) TTU by 0.4
# 9 West Virginia 11.55 10.63 10.96 10.56 11.07 9 6 ISU (Sa) WVU by 14.3
# 45 Kansas State 9.23 8.65 9.33 9.63 10.12 9 6 @OU (Sa)
# 18 TCU 8.13 8.44 8.09 8.34 8.72 7 8 BU (Sa) TCU by 4.2
# 27 Baylor 7.07 7.85 8.42 8.93 8.42 7 8 @TCU (Sa)
# 31 Oklahoma 9.86 9.14 8.84 8.09 7.81 6 9 KSU (Sa) OU by 4.7
# 38 Texas 8.02 7.69 7.09 7.83 7.35 6 9 OSU (Sa) UT by 6.1
# 53 Oklahoma State 6.32 7.25 6.58 6.33 7.03 6 9 @UT (Sa)
# 77 Iowa State 5.06 5.80 5.55 5.25 4.89 4 11 @WVU (Sa)
Kansas at Texas Tech is back to being a toss-up game. West Virginia gets a home game against
the cellar dweller, but that's not an easy game in the Big 12. A 14 ppoint predicted margin
does look comfortable, however.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
WVU over ISU 14.3
UT over OSU 6.1
OU over KSU 4.7
TCU over BU 4.2
TTU over KU 0.4
Another win by Seven Overtimes, but another asterisk, due to another wrong venue (Bashuk had
West Virginia at home rather than in Waco). Sagarin retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over OU 8.6 8.0 7.0 8.5 10.5 8.5 8.5 11.0 7.6 11.9 7.0 14.0 8.4 8.0 8.1
TTU over OSU 4.5 6.0 6.1 3.0 7.0 3.5 5.3 7.0 6.4 7.3 3.0 2.0 6.2 6.7 5.4
TCU over ISU 4.2 4.0 4.6 5.5 8.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.8 5.5
KSU over UT 1.6 3.0 2.1 3.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 5.4 2.4 2.9 4.0 7.0 2.0 1.5 2.7
WVU over BU 1.0 -4.0 -0.5 1.0 -4.5 -1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.4 6.0 -3.0 1.3 1.7 -0.4
Reality Er1or 1 2 6 1 2 2
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
30 21.4 22.0 23.0 21.5 19.5 21.5 21.5 19.0 22.4 18.1 23.0 16.0 21.6 22.0 21.9
-8 12.5 14.0 14.1 11.0 15.0 11.5 13.3 15.0 14.4 15.3 11.0 10.0 14.2 14.7 13.4
6 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.5 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.1 2.0 5.0 0.3 0.8 0.5
10 8.4 7.0 7.9 7.0 10.0 7.0 8.1 4.6 7.6 7.1 6.0 3.0 8.0 8.5 7.3
11 10.0 15.0 11.5 10.0 15.5 12.0 10.5 11.0 11.1 10.6 5.0 14.0 9.7 9.3 11.4
total 54.1 60.0 57.9 50.0 62.0 53.5 55.1 51.1 56.3 52.2 47.0 48.0 53.8 55.3 54.5
previous 627.8 657.0 640.7 639.5 641.0 647.5 648.5 724.2 660.3 640.2 656.0 739.0 650.7 653.5 693.7
cumulative 681.9 717.0 698.6 689.5 703.0 701.0 703.6 775.3 716.6 692.4 703.0 787.0 704.5 708.8 748.2
per game 9.1 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.4 9.3 9.4 10.3 9.6 9.2 9.4 10.5 9.4 9.5 10.0
Three road wins were projected for Round 15, but only two occurred. The one that didn't
happen worked in Kansas' favor. So we're just one road win ahead of the long-term average
of one in three. No road wins are projected for Round 16, though Kansas at Lubbock is a
toss-up at this point.
Road wins (26 out of 75) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
5 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU ISU 0 Texas Tech +3 Kansas
4 Kansas State ISU BU UT OSU 2 Kansas TTU OSU +3 Texas Tech
4 West Virginia OSU KSU OU BU 2 Oklahoma WVU UT +2 West Virginia
3 TCU BU OSU ISU 2 West Virginia WVU OSU +1 Kansas State
3 Texas Tech KU TCU KSU 3 Baylor TCU KSU WVU 0 TCU
2 Baylor OSU UT 3 Kansas State WVU KU TTU -1 Baylor
2 Oklahoma State KU WVU 3 TCU OU KU TTU -1 Oklahoma
2 Texas ISU OU 3 Texas KU KSU BU -1 Texas
1 Oklahoma TCU 4 Iowa State KSU UT KU TCU -2 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State 4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU KSU -4 Iowa State
It took a 20 point above expectation performance against the nearest competitor, but finally
Kansas is no longer at the bottom of the conference in the trend statistic. Still a long way
to go in the mental toughness statistic, though. A win on Saturday would help.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.29 TCU 8.17
TCU +0.52 Texas 9.58
Kansas +0.42 Oklahoma State 9.99
West Virginia +0.17 Baylor 10.02
Oklahoma +0.12 Oklahoma 10.58
Kansas State +0.10 Kansas State 10.61
Oklahoma State -0.13 Texas Tech 11.13
Baylor -0.26 Iowa State 13.01
Texas -0.35 Kansas 13.35
Iowa State -1.51 West Virginia 14.81
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.36 +/- 0.32 Iowa State +0.38 +/- 0.21
TCU +0.11 +/- 0.19 Texas Tech +0.03 +/- 0.19
Baylor +0.05 +/- 0.25 Oklahoma State -0.01 +/- 0.16
Kansas State +0.01 +/- 0.25 Kansas State -0.04 +/- 0.18
West Virginia +0.01 +/- 0.38 Texas -0.04 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State -0.03 +/- 0.24 TCU -0.05 +/- 0.17
Texas -0.18 +/- 0.23 Baylor -0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech -0.20 +/- 0.26 West Virginia -0.11 +/- 0.24
Kansas -0.40 +/- 0.31 Oklahoma -0.15 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma -0.56 +/- 0.24 Kansas -0.57 +/- 0.30
As expected, North Carolina retained #3 in strength of schedule, but Baylor took over #4, while
Kansas is effectively tied with Vanderbilt for #5, though Vandy has the edge in unpublished
decimal points. Playing at Texas Tech will bolster the rating for Kansas. Half the conference
is in the Top 10, eight are in the Top 20, and all are in the Top 50.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 86.78 Texas Tech 63.61 Oklahoma 169.81 Texas Tech +11.68
TCU 84.11 Kansas State 67.43 TCU 161.54 West Virginia +11.25
Kansas 81.82 Texas 67.96 Kansas 153.21 Kansas +10.43
West Virginia 79.75 West Virginia 68.50 Oklahoma State 150.96 TCU +6.68
Oklahoma State 76.39 Baylor 69.00 Iowa State 148.81 Baylor +5.22
Texas Tech 75.29 Kansas 71.39 West Virginia 148.25 Kansas State +5.00
Baylor 74.22 Oklahoma State 74.57 Baylor 143.22 Oklahoma +3.74
Iowa State 73.22 Iowa State 75.59 Kansas State 139.86 Texas +3.32
Kansas State 72.43 TCU 77.43 Texas 139.25 Oklahoma State +1.82
Texas 71.29 Oklahoma 83.04 Texas Tech 138.89 Iowa State -2.37
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 82.60 ( 1)
Texas 81.81 ( 2)
Baylor 81.11 ( 4)
Kansas 81.06 ( 6)
Iowa State 80.69 ( 9)
Oklahoma State 80.35 (12)
West Virginia 80.30 (13)
TCU 80.10 (16)
Texas Tech 79.07 (36)
Kansas State 78.80 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, texkan, DocBlues, KMT, jaythawk1
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- HawkErrant
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- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
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6 years 2 months ago #16675
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
asteroid wrote: Kansas at Texas Tech is back to being a toss-up game.
I'll take those odds in Lubbock this year!
Thanks, asteroid!
I'll take those odds in Lubbock this year!
Thanks, asteroid!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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6 years 2 months ago #16677
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Ditto and thanks. What I don't believe the stats show are what Tech is like with a healthy Evans and without one.
They lost a tight one at Baylor, and Evans played most of the 1st half before he got hurt. Baylor's tough and they're 5-3 at home, so that loss wouldn't have hurt Tech's numbers much. OSU probably had a bigger impact, but hell, they beat us, so they can play too.
So in terms of datapoints to draw from, Tech has 27 games/datapoints from which things can be extrapolated, BUT let's call it only 1.5 games/datapoints that are representative of the Evans-less Tech squad.
Not saying it'll be a pushover, but being a 0.4 underdog might REALLY make us a 1 or 2 point favorite. It'll be interesting to see the Vegas odds on the game (based on how people are betting) vs. the cold calculations of the algorithms and spreadsheets.
They lost a tight one at Baylor, and Evans played most of the 1st half before he got hurt. Baylor's tough and they're 5-3 at home, so that loss wouldn't have hurt Tech's numbers much. OSU probably had a bigger impact, but hell, they beat us, so they can play too.
So in terms of datapoints to draw from, Tech has 27 games/datapoints from which things can be extrapolated, BUT let's call it only 1.5 games/datapoints that are representative of the Evans-less Tech squad.
Not saying it'll be a pushover, but being a 0.4 underdog might REALLY make us a 1 or 2 point favorite. It'll be interesting to see the Vegas odds on the game (based on how people are betting) vs. the cold calculations of the algorithms and spreadsheets.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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