predictions for Oklahoma game

Five losses in a row for Oklahoma.  Are they in free-fall, or due for a win?
Is Trae Young simply getting worn out?  He is averaging 35.2 minutes per game,
which is actually less than Devonte Graham has been playing, but Self has been
resting him in practice; has Kruger been resting Young?  Oklahoma as a team has
played below expectation in seven consecutive games, and in nine of the last
ten games.  The one game they played above expectation was against Kansas in
Norman, the famous hack-a-Doke game.  For one thing, Azubuike has been shooting
charities better, but don't expect Self to allow Kruger the opportunity to try
the same strategy again.

Oklahoma has the conference's most potent offense at 87 points per game, but also
has the conference's most porous defense at 82 points per game.  These two teams
are at the bottom of the conference in the trend statistic, and they are two of the
bottom three in the mental toughness rating.

It's interesting that Sagarin and Pomeroy both agree that Oklahoma has played
the toughest schedule in all of Division I, while ESPN's BPI and Greenfield are
in near agreement, ranking Oklahoma's schedule #2 and #3, respectively, while
the RPI has Oklahoma's schedule ranked only #20, way behind Kansas' schedule at #2.
The tops of the non-conference schedules are fairly comparable in terms of
opponent strength, though Oklahoma didn't play any of those top opponents at
home, unlike Kansas.  Kansas has a clearly stronger schedule toward the bottoms
of the non-conference schedules, mostly at home for both Kansas and Oklahoma.

 #12 Wichita State (road)      #20 Kentucky      (neut)
 #32 Arkansas      (neut)      #26 Texas A&M     (home)
 #44 Southern Cal  (neut)      #42 Arizona State (home)
 #45 Alabama       (road)      #48 Syracuse      (neut)
 #50 Oregon        (neut)      #66 Nebraska      (road)
 #54 Northwestern              #87 Stanford      (road)
#153 Ball State                #93 South Dakota State
#192 San Antonio               #97 Washington
#193 North Texas              #116 Toledo
#255 Omaha                    #150 Oakland
#256 Portland                 #202 Tennessee State
#346 Northwestern State       #255 Omaha
                              #257 Texas Southern

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of them,
namely average score margin, assists per game, effective field goal percentage,
and turnover percentage.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in just three, namely opponents' points per game, opponents' effective
field goal percentage, and personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, namely Omaha and all the other eight conference
members.  Using just the home-home and road-road permutations in those cases where
both teams have finished their season series with the opponents, plus the results
of the head-to-head game in Norman, we have eighteen scores to compare:

KU  +43 Oma at home (+40 neutral court)
OU  +19 Oma at home (+16 neutral court)
KU  +27 OU  at home (+24 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
OU   +1 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)     OU   +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +6 OU  at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +5 OU  at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
OU  +20 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)     OU   -2 OSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  -22 OU  at home (-25 neutral court)     KU   -6 OU  at home ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +8 WVU at home ( +5 neutral court)
OU  -13 WVU on road (-10 neutral court)     OU   -2 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +21 OU  at home (+18 neutral court)     KU  +13 OU  at home (+10 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
OU  +10 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)     OU  -10 TTU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU  -19 OU  at home (-22 neutral court)     KU   -5 OU  at home ( -8 neutral court)

KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU  -18 KSU on road (-15 neutral court)     OU  -18 KSU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU  +35 OU  at home (+32 neutral court)     KU  +16 OU  at home (+13 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)
OU   +2 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)     OU   +2 BU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +4 OU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU   -9 OU  at home (-12 neutral court)

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OU   -5 UT  on road ( -2 neutral court)     OU  -11 UT  at home (-14 neutral court)
KU  +14 OU  at home (+11 neutral court)     KU  +26 OU  at home (+23 neutral court)

KU   +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
OU   -8 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)     OU   -8 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +17 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU   +1 OU  at home ( -2 neutral court)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while five favor Oklahoma.  The average
favors Kansas by 7.44 points, with a scatter of 15.62 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Trae Young                guard
Leading scorer        Trae Young                guard
Leading rebounder     Khadeem Lattin            forward
Most assists          Trae Young                guard
Most steals           Trae Young                guard
Most blocks           Khadeem Lattin            forward
Most turnovers        Trae Young                guard
Most fouls            Khadeem Lattin            forward
Hometown hero               Trae Young          guard
Most TV promotions          Trae Young          guard
Most comparisons to Curry   Trae Young          guard
Most mentions by Lebron     Trae Young          guard
Most keys to the team       Trae Young          guard
Most treys                  Trae Young          guard
Most Trae                   Trae Young          guard

                                                          21-6           16-10   
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +9.65   85   76                #  6   #  4     # 39   #  1 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.61   85   76       77.1     #  7   #  4     # 28   #  1 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.15   85   76                #  8   #  4     # 31   #  1 
Sagarin Recent Games   +19.28   90   71                # 15   #  4     #172   #  1 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +9.54   91   82                                           
Sagarin Combo          +10.15   86   75                #  6   #  7     # 31   #  1
Sagarin Elo            +11.66   86   75                #  5   #  7     # 40   #  1
Sagarin Blue            +8.42   85   76                #  8   #  7     # 29   #  1
performance adjust      +8.44   85   76            
trend adjust            +8.06   84   76            
Massey                  +8.00   90   82       77.0     # 12   #  4     # 44   #  8 
Pomeroy                 +6.95   83   76                # 11   #  8     # 38   #  1
Greenfield              +8.50   87   78.5              #  7   #  4     # 29   #  3
Dunkel                 +10.50   86   76                # 14            # 39       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   88   79.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +14.00   84   70                #  7   #  4     # 56   # 16 
Real Time GAMER        +14.00   84   70       73.5     #  7   #  4     # 56   # 16 
Dolphin Predictive      +8.48   90   81       75.1     # 10   #  8     # 40   #  5
ESPN BPI               +11.90                 83.8     #  8   # 14     # 40   #  2
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   84   77       83.0     # 11   #  2     # 45   # 25
Whitlock                +7.55                          # 11   #  5     # 35   #  7       
DPPI                    +6.20   84   78       72.0     # 10   #  2     # 32   #   
Colley Matrix          +11.02                          #  4   #  2     # 42   #  7
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  2     # 34   # 20
LRMC                                                   # 11   #  2     # 37   #  8
common opponents        +7.44                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.7  +/- 2.9

Here is Kansas' season; the game in Lubbock is the only remaining projected
loss, and the projected season record remains at 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #202 Tennessee State             92  56   +25.24   +10.76
NEUT   # 20 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.83    -0.83
HOME   # 93 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.49   +17.51
HOME   #257 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.83   +14.17
HOME   #150 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +21.22   +21.78
HOME   #116 Toledo                      96  58   +19.41   +18.59
NEUT   # 48 Syracuse                    76  60    +7.90    +8.10
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +16.79   -25.79
HOME   # 42 Arizona State               85  95    +9.85   -19.85
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.46    -6.46
HOME   #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +28.82   +16.18
AWAY   # 87 Stanford                    75  54    +9.66   +11.34
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +3.00    +3.00
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.08   -17.08
AWAY   # 16 TCU                         88  84    +1.29    +2.71
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.01   -10.01
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                73  72   +10.96    -9.96
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               71  66    -2.23    +7.23
HOME   # 22 Baylor                      70  67    +8.27    -5.27
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                    80  85    +2.26    -7.26
HOME   # 26 Texas A&M                   79  68    +8.46    +2.54
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                70  56    +4.62    +9.38
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.78   -17.78
HOME   # 16 TCU                         71  64    +7.63    -0.63
AWAY   # 22 Baylor                      64  80    +1.93   -17.93
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  83  77    +8.67    -2.67
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               77  69    +4.11    +3.89
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                              +8.60             0.771
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -1.26             0.458
HOME   # 35 Texas                                 +9.34             0.792
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State                        +6.44             0.712

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          108  89   +23.39    -4.39
HOME   #153 Ball State                 108  69   +15.99   +23.01
NEUT   # 32 Arkansas                    83  92    +0.45    -9.45
NEUT   #256 Portland                    93  71   +20.22    +1.78
NEUT   # 50 Oregon                      90  80    +3.22    +6.78
HOME   #193 North Texas                 82  72   +19.34    -9.34
HOME   #192 UTSA                        97  85   +19.30    -7.30
NEUT   # 44 Southern California         85  83    +2.02    -0.02
AWAY   # 12 Wichita State               91  83    -6.09   +14.09
HOME   #346 Northwestern State         105  68   +34.34    +2.66
HOME   # 54 Northwestern               104  78    +7.29   +18.71
AWAY   # 16 TCU                         90  89    -4.14    +5.14
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State             109  89    +7.35   +12.65
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia               76  89    -7.66    -5.34
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  75  65    -0.35   +10.35
HOME   # 16 TCU                        102  97    +2.20    +2.80
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                69  87    -0.81   -17.19
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State              81  83    +1.01    -3.01
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      85  80    -2.26    +7.26
AWAY   # 45 Alabama                     73  80    -1.03    -5.97
HOME   # 22 Baylor                      98  96    +2.84    -0.84
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       74  79    -2.43    -2.57
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               73  75    -1.32    -0.68
AWAY   # 78 Iowa State                  80  88    +3.24   -11.24
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                  78  88    -6.69    -3.31
HOME   # 35 Texas                       66  77    +3.91   -14.91
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -8.60             0.229
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                          +5.53             0.703
AWAY   # 22 Baylor                                -3.50             0.363
HOME   # 78 Iowa State                            +9.58             0.793