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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 14
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6 years 2 months ago #16520
by asteroid
Kansas' comeback victory over West Virginia, coupled with Texas Tech's loss in Waco propelled the
Jayhawks back into first place with the Red Raiders slipping into second. Oklahoma's home loss
not only eliminated them from the race for the conference crown, it caused the Sooners to continue
their free-fall, sliding two spots into seventh. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 7 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
# 10 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05
# 9 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64
# 46 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00
# 24 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20
# 16 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07
# 29 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79
# 35 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30
# 56 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80
# 79 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 7 Kansas 12.55 12.78 12.06 12.32 12.73 10 4 OU (Mo) KU by 8.6
# 10 Texas Tech 11.77 11.98 12.49 12.82 12.31 10 4 @OSU (We) TTU by 4.5 RW
# 9 West Virginia 11.04 11.55 10.63 10.96 10.56 8 6 @BU (Tu) WVU by 1.0 RW
# 46 Kansas State 8.47 9.23 8.65 9.33 9.63 8 6 UT (We) KSU by 1.6
# 24 Baylor 6.48 7.07 7.85 8.42 8.93 7 7 WVU (Tu)
# 16 TCU 8.33 8.13 8.44 8.09 8.34 6 8 @ISU (We) TCU by 4.2 RW
# 29 Oklahoma 10.33 9.86 9.14 8.84 8.09 6 8 @KU (Mo)
# 35 Texas 8.82 8.02 7.69 7.09 7.83 6 8 @KSU (We)
# 56 Oklahoma State 6.92 6.32 7.25 6.58 6.33 5 9 TTU (We)
# 79 Iowa State 5.29 5.06 5.80 5.55 5.25 4 10 TCU (We)
West Virginia now has to contend with the team that just knocked off the conference's top two
teams. Kansas has to contend with the "live by the Trae, die by the Trae" opponent. With
four home losses, don't count on Oklahoma State helping out the Jayhawks by beating Texas Tech.
But it's the Big 12. Anything can happen.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over OU 8.6
TTU over OSU 4.5
TCU over ISU 4.2
KSU over UT 1.6
WVU over BU 1.0
Real Time won honors for best prognostications of Round 14, its first win of the season.
Sagarin retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TCU over OSU 7.7 9.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 10.9 10.0 14.0 8.2 7.7 9.4
KSU over ISU 6.9 8.0 7.5 7.5 4.0 7.5 6.9 8.7 7.7 8.2 8.0 10.0 8.5 8.0 4.6
OU over UT 4.7 5.0 4.7 6.5 5.0 7.0 5.3 6.3 5.2 5.8 3.0 12.0 5.6 5.2 7.1
KU over WVU 3.9 5.0 3.2 3.5 -1.0 3.5 2.7 7.7 4.3 5.3 -5.0 9.0 4.0 3.6 0.1
TTU over BU 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.0 -1.0 1.0 1.6 5.8 3.3 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.9 2.4 -0.5
Reality Er1or 1 2 5 1 2 2
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
20 12.3 11.0 12.0 13.0 16.0 13.0 11.8 11.8 11.7 9.1 10.0 6.0 11.8 12.3 10.6
12 5.1 4.0 4.5 4.5 8.0 4.5 5.1 3.3 4.3 3.8 4.0 2.0 3.5 4.0 7.4
-11 15.7 16.0 15.7 17.5 16.0 18.0 16.3 17.3 16.2 16.8 14.0 23.0 16.6 16.2 18.1
8 4.1 3.0 4.8 4.5 9.0 4.5 5.3 0.3 3.7 2.7 13.0 1.0 4.0 4.4 7.9
-2 2.2 3.0 3.8 3.0 1.0 3.0 3.6 7.8 5.3 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.4 1.5
total 39.4 37.0 40.8 42.5 50.0 43.0 42.1 40.5 41.2 36.4 43.0 35.0 39.8 41.3 45.5
previous 588.4 620.0 599.9 597.0 591.0 604.5 606.4 683.7 619.1 603.8 613.0 704.0 610.9 612.2 648.2
cumulative 627.8 657.0 640.7 639.5 641.0 647.5 648.5 724.2 660.3 640.2 656.0 739.0 650.7 653.5 693.7
per game 9.0 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.3 10.3 9.4 9.1 9.4 10.6 9.3 9.3 9.9
Only one road win in Round 14, and it wasn't projected, while the projected
ones didn't happen. Three road wins are projected for Round 15, all close
games.
Road wins (24 out of 70) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
5 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU ISU 0 Texas Tech +3 Kansas
4 Kansas State ISU BU UT OSU 2 Baylor TCU KSU +3 Texas Tech
3 Texas Tech KU TCU KSU 2 Kansas TTU OSU +1 Kansas State
3 West Virginia OSU KSU OU 2 Oklahoma WVU UT +1 West Virginia
2 Baylor OSU UT 2 West Virginia WVU OSU 0 Baylor
2 Oklahoma State KU WVU 3 Iowa State KSU UT KU -1 Oklahoma
2 TCU BU OSU 3 Kansas State WVU KU TTU -1 TCU
2 Texas ISU OU 3 TCU OU KU TTU -1 Texas
1 Oklahoma TCU 3 Texas KU KSU BU -2 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State 4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU KSU -3 Iowa State
Big Monday features the two teams with the most negative trends in the Big 12.
Only Iowa State and Texas Tech have positive mental toughness ratings, while
only Iowa State and Kansas have statistically significant mental toughness ratings.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.47 TCU 8.16
TCU +0.40 Texas 9.70
Oklahoma +0.36 Oklahoma State 9.83
Kansas +0.21 Oklahoma 9.92
West Virginia +0.11 Baylor 10.02
Kansas State +0.06 Kansas State 10.76
Baylor -0.17 Texas Tech 10.99
Oklahoma State -0.22 Kansas 13.00
Texas -0.32 Iowa State 13.26
Iowa State -1.54 West Virginia 15.00
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.41 +/- 0.34 Iowa State +0.38 +/- 0.21
Baylor +0.12 +/- 0.27 Texas Tech +0.06 +/- 0.19
TCU +0.03 +/- 0.22 Texas -0.01 +/- 0.17
Kansas State -0.05 +/- 0.27 Oklahoma State -0.03 +/- 0.16
West Virginia -0.08 +/- 0.38 TCU -0.04 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech -0.11 +/- 0.28 Baylor -0.05 +/- 0.16
Texas -0.12 +/- 0.24 Kansas State -0.05 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State -0.13 +/- 0.25 Oklahoma -0.05 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma -0.43 +/- 0.25 West Virginia -0.15 +/- 0.25
Kansas -0.61 +/- 0.30 Kansas -0.59 +/- 0.29
The strength of schedule rating for Kansas went up a fair bit, but the ranking
went down a notch. Apparently North Carolina playing at Louisville was
considered a tougher game than Kansas hosting West Virginia, so North Carolina
slid into the #3 spot by a hair. Next, they're at #48 Syracuse while we host
#39 Oklahoma. That is, we have the tougher opponent, but the easier venue.
I suspect North Carolina will hold onto the #3 spot until we play at Texas Tech
while they host Miami.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 87.19 Texas Tech 63.11 Oklahoma 169.50 Texas Tech +12.26
TCU 83.69 Kansas State 68.07 TCU 161.19 West Virginia +11.11
Kansas 81.07 Texas 68.41 Kansas 152.30 Kansas +9.85
West Virginia 80.00 Baylor 68.85 Oklahoma State 151.00 TCU +6.19
Oklahoma State 76.37 West Virginia 68.89 West Virginia 148.89 Baylor +6.00
Texas Tech 75.37 Kansas 71.22 Iowa State 147.92 Kansas State +4.96
Baylor 74.85 Oklahoma State 74.63 Baylor 143.69 Oklahoma +4.88
Kansas State 73.04 Iowa State 75.00 Kansas State 141.11 Texas +3.67
Iowa State 72.92 TCU 77.50 Texas 140.48 Oklahoma State +1.74
Texas 72.07 Oklahoma 82.31 Texas Tech 138.48 Iowa State -2.08
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 82.18 ( 1)
Texas 81.56 ( 2)
Kansas 81.15 ( 4)
Baylor 80.78 ( 8)
Iowa State 80.54 ( 9)
Oklahoma State 80.17 (13)
West Virginia 79.94 (14)
TCU 79.93 (16)
Texas Tech 78.79 (39)
Kansas State 78.61 (42)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, hairyhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, KMT, jaythawk1
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6 years 2 months ago #16523
by konza63
It's nice to see this in writing from the venerable one, Sir Asteroid, today.
Close it out, lads...
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Kansas' comeback victory over West Virginia, coupled with Texas Tech's loss in Waco propelled the
Jayhawks back into first place with the Red Raiders slipping into second.
It's nice to see this in writing from the venerable one, Sir Asteroid, today.
Close it out, lads...
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.