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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
- asteroid
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6 years 2 months ago #16449
by asteroid
This needs to be quick, as I need to head to the airport.
Another asterisk for Seven Overtimes, as we've come full circle with its
two venue errors: West Virginia is listed as the home team, which led to
a predicted loss by 5 points for Kansas. Everybody else is picking
Kansas to win.
Dunkel is just now getting around to populating its web page with
predictions, but the Kansas game isn't up yet. I'll fill it in
later, not having the time to wait for him.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three
of them, namely points per game, assists per game, and effective field goal
percentage. Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in just three, namely opponents' effective field goal percentage, defensive
rebounds per game, and personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are ten common opponents, namely Texas A&M, Kentucky, and all the other
eight conference members, so along with the head-to-head in Morgantown, we have
seventeen scores to compare:
KU +11 A&M at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU -23 A&M neutral (-23 neutral court)
KU +34 WVU at home (+31 neutral court)
KU +4 UK neutral ( +4 neutral court)
WVU -7 UK at home (-10 neutral court)
KU +17 WVU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court) KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
WVU +6 OSU on road ( +9 neutral court) WVU -3 OSU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +20 WVU at home (+17 neutral court) KU +1 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court) KU +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU +8 KSU on road (+11 neutral court) WVU +38 KSU at home (+35 neutral court)
KU +9 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court) KU -34 WVU at home (-37 neutral court)
KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court)
WVU +13 OU at home (+10 neutral court) WVU +2 OU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU -9 WVU at home (-12 neutral court) KU -4 WVU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU -16 BU on road (-13 neutral court)
WVU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court) WVU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +3 WVU at home ( 0 neutral court) KU -10 WVU at home (-13 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
WVU -1 TTU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU -14 WVU at home (-17 neutral court)
KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court)
WVU +35 UT at home (+32 neutral court)
KU -20 WVU at home (-23 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court) KU +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
WVU -9 TCU on road ( -6 neutral court) WVU +16 TCU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU +16 WVU at home (+13 neutral court) KU -6 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU +6 ISU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
WVU -16 ISU on road (-13 neutral court) WVU -16 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +25 WVU at home (+22 neutral court) KU +18 WVU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +11 WVU at home ( +8 neutral court)
Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor West Virginia. The average
favors Kansas by 3.35 points, with a scatter of 17.77 points.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Jevon Carter guard
Leading scorer Jevon Carter guard
Leading rebounder Sagaba Konate forward
Most assists Jevon Carter guard
Most steals Jevon Carter guard
Most blocks Sagaba Konate forward
Most turnovers Jevon Carter guard
Most fouls Jevon Carter guard
20-6 19-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +3.78 77 73 # 7 # 3 # 9 # 21
Sagarin Predictor +3.94 77 73 60.9 # 7 # 3 # 8 # 21
Sagarin Golden Mean +4.10 77 73 # 8 # 3 # 11 # 21
Sagarin Recent Games +2.26 77 74 # 25 # 3 # 19 # 21
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +3.88 79 75
Sagarin Combo +6.34 79 72 # 8 # 5 # 13 # 28
Sagarin Elo +8.03 79 71 # 5 # 5 # 18 # 28
Sagarin Blue +4.20 77 73 # 7 # 5 # 11 # 28
performance adjust +3.96 77 73
trend adjust +0.12 75 75
Massey +5.00 80 75 66.0 # 14 # 3 # 22 # 27
Pomeroy +4.72 77 74 # 13 # 9 # 14 # 39
Greenfield +3.50 78 75 # 7 # 4 # 9 # 11
Dunkel # 12 # 13
Vegas (via Dunkel)
Real Time RPI +9.00 80 71 # 8 # 6 # 23 # 51
Real Time GAMER +9.00 80 71 65.4 # 8 # 6 # 23 # 51
Dolphin Predictive +2.68 79 76 58.9 # 13 # 7 # 8 # 10
ESPN BPI +5.30 68.4 # 7 # 17 # 11 # 38
Seven Overtimes -5.00 73 78 42.0 # 9 # 3 # 19 # 37
Whitlock +4.32 # 12 # 6 # 16 # 36
DPPI # # # #
Colley Matrix +7.73 # 6 # 2 # 21 # 35
CBN RPI # 9 # 1 # 29 # 53
LRMC # 12 # 2 # 13 # 46
common opponents +3.35
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +4.3 +/- 3.1
Here is Kansas' season; the game in Lubbock is the only remaining projected
loss, and the projected season record remains at 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #189 Tennessee State 92 56 +24.45 +11.55
NEUT # 23 Kentucky 65 61 +4.83 -0.83
HOME # 93 South Dakota State 98 64 +16.41 +17.59
HOME #253 Texas Southern 114 71 +28.44 +14.56
HOME #149 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +21.15 +21.85
HOME #110 Toledo 96 58 +18.51 +19.49
NEUT # 48 Syracuse 76 60 +8.17 +7.83
HOME # 99 Washington 65 74 +17.31 -26.31
HOME # 41 Arizona State 85 95 +9.77 -19.77
AWAY # 64 Nebraska 73 72 +7.27 -6.27
HOME #256 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +28.78 +16.22
AWAY # 88 Stanford 75 54 +9.52 +11.48
AWAY # 39 Texas 92 86 +3.32 +2.68
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 85 +4.90 -16.90
AWAY # 20 TCU 88 84 +1.53 +2.47
HOME # 76 Iowa State 83 78 +14.79 -9.79
HOME # 47 Kansas State 73 72 +11.04 -10.04
AWAY # 8 West Virginia 71 66 -2.38 +7.38
HOME # 27 Baylor 70 67 +8.24 -5.24
AWAY # 26 Oklahoma 80 85 +1.79 -6.79
HOME # 21 Texas A&M 79 68 +7.88 +3.12
AWAY # 47 Kansas State 70 56 +4.72 +9.28
HOME # 52 Oklahoma State 79 84 +12.37 -17.37
HOME # 20 TCU 71 64 +7.85 -0.85
AWAY # 27 Baylor 64 80 +1.92 -17.92
AWAY # 76 Iowa State 83 77 +8.47 -2.47
HOME # 8 West Virginia +3.94 0.609
HOME # 26 Oklahoma +8.11 0.758
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech -1.42 0.454
HOME # 39 Texas +9.64 0.799
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State +6.05 0.698
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 21 Texas A&M 65 88 +3.94 -26.94
HOME #325 American U. 98 64 +32.80 +1.20
HOME #326 Morgan State 111 48 +33.06 +29.94
HOME #205 Long Beach State 91 62 +24.79 +4.21
NEUT #315 Marist 84 78 +28.74 -22.74
NEUT # 94 Central Florida(UCF) 83 45 +12.64 +25.36
NEUT # 43 Missouri 83 79 +5.92 -1.92
HOME #255 NJIT(New Jersey Tech) 102 69 +27.87 +5.13
HOME # 4 Virginia 68 61 +0.31 +6.69
AWAY #190 Pittsburgh 69 60 +17.39 -8.39
HOME #344 Coppin State 77 38 +38.54 +0.46
HOME #245 Fordham 86 69 +27.07 -10.07
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State 85 79 +5.27 +0.73
AWAY # 47 Kansas State 77 69 +3.94 +4.06
HOME # 26 Oklahoma 89 76 +7.33 +5.67
HOME # 27 Baylor 57 54 +7.46 -4.46
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 71 72 -2.20 +1.20
HOME # 7 Kansas 66 71 +2.38 -7.38
HOME # 39 Texas 86 51 +8.86 +26.14
AWAY # 20 TCU 73 82 +0.75 -9.75
HOME # 23 Kentucky 76 83 +7.21 -14.21
AWAY # 76 Iowa State 77 93 +7.69 -23.69
HOME # 47 Kansas State 89 51 +10.26 +27.74
AWAY # 26 Oklahoma 75 73 +1.01 +0.99
HOME # 52 Oklahoma State 85 88 +11.59 -14.59
HOME # 20 TCU 82 66 +7.07 +8.93
AWAY # 7 Kansas -3.94 0.391
AWAY # 27 Baylor +1.14 0.535
HOME # 76 Iowa State +14.01 0.835
HOME # 11 Texas Tech +4.12 0.621
AWAY # 39 Texas +2.54 0.580
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, mtnMan, jaythawk1
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