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Request for historical analysis if possible for 2003

  • HawkErrant
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6 years 2 months ago #16448 by HawkErrant
Riffing off of mtnMan's "Garrett glue guy" article post here.

Corpus, if you have the data (and the time :)) to analyze the player performances for the 2003 season, I would love to see the numbers. If not, c'est la vie, and thanks for all you do already.

Let me state up front that I am in no way saying that Jeff Graves was a better overall basketball player than Wayne Simien.

Having stated that --

POPULAR HYPOTHESIS
If Wayne could have played, KU would have won versus Syracuse in the NCAA title game.

MY HYPOTHESIS
KU played significantly better as a team when Jeff was playing for Wayne than it did in the games Wayne played and finished.
In line with that, I think a strong case exists for KU not even making the title game if Wayne is playing.

FACTS
2003 Jayhawks

Wayne Simien hurts shoulder twice (Jan 2 against UMKC; returns Feb 16, but out again in 4th game back against TAMU), 2nd time season ending. Only plays in 14 complete games (I count the two games he was injured as Jeff's).
10-4 = KU's record for those 14 "Simien" games.

Junior transfer Jeff Graves takes Wayne's place in the starting lineup each time, a total of 24 games.
20-4 = KU's record for those 24 "Graves" games, 10-2 the record after Simien went down for the season.

KU loses NCAA title game to Syracuse in large part because Jeff (2-7 FT, 57% for the season) and star forward Nick Collison (3-10 FT, 64% for the season) cannot hit the broad side of a barn from the FT line. With Keith Langford (64% for the season) going 5-10 from the line himself, the three were just 10-27 from the line. Adding in Kirk Hinrich at 1-1 and Bryant Nash finishing 1-2 totals KU's abysmal 12-30 from the stripe in a game lost by three points 81-78.
This data -- and the fact the Syracuse went after Graves late in the game to slow down KU's come back -- has led some to contend that KU would have won if Wayne could have played.

I know that the abysmal FG shooting of Kirk (6-20, 30%) and Aaron (1-5, 20%) were in actuality just a huge factors in the loss, but it is the FT shooting that the Wayne arguers focus on (they can't fault Jeff (7-13, 54%) for his shooting from the floor, or for that matter Nick (8-14, 57%) or Keith (7-9, 78%)).

Any way, that's just a refresher on the game, and it's not that one game that I am really looking at here (although it certainly is the reason that season is so memorable,even if on a down note).

Bottom line for me, based on the games that I actually saw that season (just about all of them IIRC) -- looking at their total season performances, Jeff played better with Nick than Wayne did, resulting in KU performing better with Nick and Jeff than with Nick and Wayne. The spacing, the teamwork, the team play (e.g., screening, assists) was just better with Jeff in the lineup, making the team more productive overall, even those he was clearly not as offensively gifted at the game as Wayne.
W-L results:
Jeff 20-4
Wayne 10-4.
Speaks volumes to me in support of that supposition.

Thanks!

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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