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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 13
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6 years 2 months ago #16442
by asteroid
Kansas State beat Oklahoma State while Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech, and that enabled the
Wildcats to leapfrog the Sooners into fourth place. And Baylor beat Texas while TCU lost
at West Virginia, enabling the Bears to leapfrog the Horned Frogs for sixth place. No
other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05
# 7 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
# 8 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64
# 49 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00
# 24 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79
# 28 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20
# 17 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07
# 37 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30
# 51 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80
# 76 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 11 Texas Tech 11.77 11.98 12.49 12.82 10 3 @BU (Sa) TTU by 0.1 RW
# 7 Kansas 12.55 12.78 12.06 12.32 9 4 WVU (Sa) KU by 4.0
# 8 West Virginia 11.04 11.55 10.63 10.96 8 5 @KU (Sa)
# 49 Kansas State 8.47 9.23 8.65 9.33 7 6 ISU (Sa) KSU by 6.9
# 24 Oklahoma 10.33 9.86 9.14 8.84 6 7 UT (Sa) OU by 4.8
# 28 Baylor 6.48 7.07 7.85 8.42 6 7 TTU (Sa)
# 17 TCU 8.33 8.13 8.44 8.09 5 8 OSU (Sa) TCU by 7.6
# 37 Texas 8.82 8.02 7.69 7.09 5 8 @OU (Sa)
# 51 Oklahoma State 6.92 6.32 7.25 6.58 5 8 @TCU (Sa)
# 76 Iowa State 5.29 5.06 5.80 5.55 4 9 @KSU (Sa)
This Saturday is arguably Texas Tech's most difficult remaining game, on the road at Baylor,
where the Red Raiders are favored by only a fraction of a point.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TCU over OSU 7.6
KSU over ISU 6.9
OU over UT 4.8
KU over WVU 4.0
TTU over BU 0.1
ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 13, its second win of the
season. Sagarin retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over ISU 8.6 4.0 6.2 7.0 3.0 6.5 6.3 8.8 7.2 9.3 3.0 4.0 10.4 10.9 2.7
WVU over TCU 6.6 4.0 4.5 8.0 10.5 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.9 8.9 4.0 8.0 6.1 5.7 5.3
TTU over OU 6.1 9.0 7.9 7.0 4.0 8.0 8.5 7.7 7.5 10.5 6.0 13.0 7.0 6.5 7.3
OSU over KSU 2.6 3.0 2.5 4.0 -1.0 4.0 3.7 0.5 2.1 2.3 1.0 9.0 2.7 2.2 5.0
UT over BU 1.9 4.0 2.2 2.5 5.0 3.0 2.1 4.9 3.3 2.5 8.0 10.0 1.7 1.2 -0.9
Reality Er1or 1 2 5 2 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
6 2.6 2.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 0.5 0.3 2.8 1.2 3.3 3.0 2.0 4.4 4.9 3.3
16 9.4 12.0 11.5 8.0 5.5 10.0 9.7 12.8 12.1 7.1 12.0 8.0 9.9 10.3 10.7
10 3.9 1.0 2.1 3.0 6.0 2.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 0.5 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.7
-10 12.6 13.0 12.5 14.0 9.0 14.0 13.7 10.5 12.1 12.3 11.0 19.0 12.7 12.2 15.0
-1 2.9 5.0 3.2 3.5 6.0 4.0 3.1 5.9 4.3 3.5 9.0 11.0 2.7 2.2 0.1
total 31.4 33.0 29.5 29.5 29.5 30.5 28.3 34.3 32.2 26.7 39.0 43.0 32.7 33.1 31.8
previous 557.0 587.0 570.4 567.5 561.5 574.0 578.1 649.4 586.9 577.1 574.0 661.0 578.2 579.1 616.4
cumulative 588.4 620.0 599.9 597.0 591.0 604.5 606.4 683.7 619.1 603.8 613.0 704.0 610.9 612.2 648.2
per game 9.1 9.5 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.3 10.5 9.5 9.3 9.4 10.8 9.4 9.4 10.0
Three road wins occurred in Round 13, putting us one win ahead of the long-term average of one road
win in three games. Only one road win is projected for Round 14, and it is effectively a toss-up
game.
Road wins (23 out of 65) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
5 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU ISU 0 Texas Tech +3 Kansas
4 Kansas State ISU BU UT OSU 1 Oklahoma WVU +3 Texas Tech
3 Texas Tech KU TCU KSU 2 Baylor TCU KSU +1 Kansas State
3 West Virginia OSU KSU OU 2 Kansas TTU OSU +1 West Virginia
2 Baylor OSU UT 2 West Virginia WVU OSU 0 Baylor
2 Oklahoma State KU WVU 3 Iowa State KSU UT KU 0 Oklahoma
2 TCU BU OSU 3 Kansas State WVU KU TTU -1 TCU
1 Oklahoma TCU 3 TCU OU KU TTU -2 Oklahoma State
1 Texas ISU 3 Texas KU KSU BU -2 Texas
0 Iowa State 4 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU KSU -3 Iowa State
If you take performance into account, Tech's game at Baylor on Saturday isn't a toss-up, but still
well within the inconsistency. Go Bears!
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.54 TCU 8.16
Oklahoma +0.52 Texas 9.37
TCU +0.40 Oklahoma 9.54
Kansas +0.19 Oklahoma State 9.69
West Virginia +0.17 Baylor 10.27
Kansas State +0.01 Kansas State 10.96
Oklahoma State -0.09 Texas Tech 11.11
Baylor -0.19 Kansas 13.27
Texas -0.44 Iowa State 13.49
Iowa State -1.55 West Virginia 15.22
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.50 +/- 0.37 Iowa State +0.39 +/- 0.22
Baylor +0.12 +/- 0.29 Texas Tech +0.07 +/- 0.19
TCU +0.03 +/- 0.22 Oklahoma State 0.00 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State -0.05 +/- 0.26 Baylor -0.04 +/- 0.17
West Virginia -0.05 +/- 0.41 Kansas State -0.04 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech -0.09 +/- 0.30 TCU -0.04 +/- 0.17
Kansas State -0.10 +/- 0.29 Oklahoma -0.06 +/- 0.19
Texas -0.27 +/- 0.24 Texas -0.06 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma -0.33 +/- 0.26 West Virginia -0.14 +/- 0.26
Kansas -0.72 +/- 0.32 Kansas -0.64 +/- 0.30
Half of the conference is now in the Top 10 in strength of schedule. Everyone
is in the Top 45.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 88.12 Texas Tech 63.35 Oklahoma 170.56 Texas Tech +12.65
TCU 83.69 Kansas State 68.08 TCU 161.19 West Virginia +11.69
Kansas 81.31 Texas 68.58 Kansas 152.54 Kansas +10.08
West Virginia 80.35 West Virginia 68.65 Oklahoma State 150.65 Baylor +6.32
Oklahoma State 76.54 Baylor 69.24 West Virginia 149.00 TCU +6.19
Texas Tech 76.00 Kansas 71.23 Iowa State 148.08 Oklahoma +5.68
Baylor 75.56 Oklahoma State 74.12 Baylor 144.80 Kansas State +4.85
Iowa State 73.12 Iowa State 74.96 Kansas State 141.00 Texas +3.23
Kansas State 72.92 TCU 77.50 Texas 140.38 Oklahoma State +2.42
Texas 71.81 Oklahoma 82.44 Texas Tech 139.35 Iowa State -1.84
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 82.19 ( 1)
Texas 81.33 ( 2)
Kansas 80.89 ( 3)
Baylor 80.43 ( 9)
Iowa State 80.18 (10)
TCU 80.04 (12)
Oklahoma State 79.68 (15)
West Virginia 79.34 (23)
Kansas State 78.75 (35)
Texas Tech 78.25 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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- JRhawk
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6 years 2 months ago #16443
by JRhawk
Am confused at your statement that this Sat might arguably be TT's toughest remaining game, as TT .1 pt favorite. Given that TT now has 10 wins, but only projected at a rounded 13 wins - that means two losses. Naturally I hope Baylor beats them. I would argue that at WVU will be tougher & of course at home against a renewed KU team.
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6 years 2 months ago #16446
by asteroid
Yes, I goofed by not paying attention to the signs, only the values. Tech's remaining games have the following predicted margins and probabilities of victory:
AWAY # 28 Baylor +0.14 0.505
AWAY # 52 Oklahoma State +4.26 0.659
HOME # 7 Kansas +1.39 0.545
AWAY # 8 West Virginia -4.16 0.377
HOME # 21 TCU +6.13 0.735Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.