predictions for Iowa State game

My, how things have changed.  It wasn't long ago that I had visions of a
three-game lead with eight to play.  Instead, we trail by a fraction of a
game with six to play.  Today's game falls into the must-win category.
Hopefully by now the Jayhawks have learned that they cannot take any
conference opponent for granted, including the cellar dwellers.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of them,
namely points per game, average score margin, assists per game, and effective
field goal percentage.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in six; Iowa State grabs more offensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, namely all the other conference members,
two of which Iowa State has played twice (Texas, Texas Tech), two of which
Kansas has played twice (Kansas State, TCU), and one of which both have
played twice (Baylor) for which I will use only the home-home and road-road
permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores
to compare:

KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)
ISU -16 KSU at home (-19 neutral court)     ISU -16 KSU at home (-19 neutral court)
KU  +14 ISU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU  +33 ISU on road (+36 neutral court)

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
ISU  -4 UT  at home ( -7 neutral court)     ISU -16 UT  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU  +13 ISU on road (+16 neutral court)     KU  +19 ISU on road (+22 neutral court)

KU   -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
ISU  -9 OSU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU   -5 ISU on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)
ISU +10 BU  at home ( +7 neutral court)     ISU -14 BU  on road (-11 neutral court)
KU  -10 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU   -5 ISU on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court)
ISU -23 TCU on road (-20 neutral court)     ISU -23 TCU on road (-20 neutral court)
KU  +24 ISU on road (+27 neutral court)     KU  +21 ISU on road (+24 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)     KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
ISU +18 TTU at home (+15 neutral court)     ISU -18 TTU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU  -33 ISU on road (-30 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU on road (  0 neutral court)

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
ISU +16 WVU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU   -8 ISU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
ISU  +8 OU  at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU  -10 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   -1 ISU on road ( +2 neutral court)

Only six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Iowa State, but the
average favors Kansas by 3.5 points, though the scatter is 17.7 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Leading scorer        Lindell Wigginton         guard
Leading rebounder     Cameron Lard              forward
Most assists          Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most steals           Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most blocks           Cameron Lard              forward
Most turnovers        Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most fouls            Solomon Young             forward

Nick Weiler-Babb is recovering from tendinitis in his left knee, and whether
he plays or not could be a game-time decision.  Hans Brase has been out with
a knee injury.  He was their seventh man in terms of minutes played, but
scored less than 3 points per game, so a contributor, but not a key player.
Weiler-Babb is their fourth-leading scorer, which represents a loss of over
5 points per game compared to their sixth man.

                                                          19-6           13-11    
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +7.37    79   71               #  6   #  4     # 70   # 13 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.60    79   71      73.5     #  7   #  4     # 76   # 13 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.88    78   72               #  8   #  4     # 62   # 13 
Sagarin Recent Games    +0.78    75   75               # 38   #  4     # 65   # 13 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +9.85    81   71                                          
Sagarin Combo           +6.80    78   72               #  9   #  5     # 77   # 12
Sagarin Elo             +3.41    77   73               #  7   #  5     # 56   # 12
Sagarin Blue           +10.04    80   70               #  7   #  5     # 94   # 12
performance adjust     +10.44    80   70           
trend adjust            +2.65    76   74           
Massey                  +4.00    78   74      65.0     # 16   #  3     # 81   # 40 
Pomeroy                 +6.20    78   71               # 14   #  7     # 92   # 17
Greenfield              +7.00    79   72               #  7   #  5     # 76   # 38
Dunkel                  +3.00    79.5 76.5             # 12            # 74       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50    79   72                                          
Real Time RPI           +4.00    81   77               # 10   #  3     # 83   # 37 
Real Time GAMER         +4.00    81   77      57.0     # 10   #  3     # 92   # 36 
Dolphin Predictive      +6.34    79   73      70.4     # 13   #  7     # 84   # 45
ESPN BPI                +9.30                 80.3     #  7   # 16     # 88   # 18
Seven Overtimes         +3.00    76   73      73.0     #  8   #  3     #111   # 53
Whitlock                +7.19                          # 14   #  3     # 86   # 24       
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #   
Colley Matrix           +8.82                          #  7   #  1     # 86   # 27
CBN RPI                                                #  9   #  2     # 90   # 42
LRMC                                                   # 13   #  1     # 83   # 31
common opponents        +3.50                      
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +6.0  +/- 2.7 

Here is Kansas' season; we're back to having a projected loss in Lubbock,
with the projected season record being back down to 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #193 Tennessee State             92  56   +24.59   +11.41
NEUT   # 21 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.73    -0.73
HOME   # 92 South Dakota State          98  64   +16.50   +17.50
HOME   #252 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.52   +14.48
HOME   #143 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +21.19   +21.81
HOME   #111 Toledo                      96  58   +18.61   +19.39
NEUT   # 47 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.01    +7.99
HOME   # 99 Washington                  65  74   +17.14   -26.14
HOME   # 38 Arizona State               85  95    +9.72   -19.72
AWAY   # 65 Nebraska                    73  72    +7.51    -6.51
HOME   #255 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +28.61   +16.39
AWAY   # 87 Stanford                    75  54    +9.59   +11.41
AWAY   # 40 Texas                       92  86    +3.43    +2.57
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +5.19   -17.19
AWAY   # 24 TCU                         88  84    +1.65    +2.35
HOME   # 76 Iowa State                  83  78   +14.96    -9.96
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                73  72   +11.53   -10.53
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -2.31    +7.31
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      70  67    +8.32    -5.32
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                    80  85    +1.73    -6.73
HOME   # 22 Texas A&M                   79  68    +7.92    +3.08
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                70  56    +5.17    +8.83
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State              79  84   +12.10   -17.10
HOME   # 24 TCU                         71  64    +8.01    -1.01
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      64  80    +1.96   -17.96
AWAY   # 76 Iowa State                            +8.60             0.735
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +4.05             0.610
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                              +8.09             0.753
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -1.17             0.463
HOME   # 40 Texas                                 +9.79             0.798
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +5.74             0.687

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 41 Missouri                    59  74    -8.03    -6.97
HOME   #207 Milwaukee                   56  74   +14.08   -32.08
NEUT   #228 Appalachian State          104  98   +11.91    -5.91
NEUT   #113 Tulsa                       80  78    +3.75    -1.75
NEUT   # 58 Boise State                 75  64    -1.78   +12.78
HOME   #299 Western Illinois            70  45   +19.62    +5.38
HOME   #220 Northern Illinois           94  80   +14.66    -0.66
HOME   # 79 Iowa                        84  78    +3.52    +2.48
HOME   #336 Alcorn State                78  58   +24.75    -4.75
HOME   #121 Northern Iowa               76  65    +7.82    +3.18
HOME   #348 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     55  49   +30.41   -24.41
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                75  91    -0.25   -15.75
HOME   # 40 Texas                       70  74    -1.99    -2.01
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State              87  96    -6.04    -2.96
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      78  83   -14.96    +9.96
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      75  65    -3.46   +13.46
AWAY   # 24 TCU                         73  96   -10.13   -12.87
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  70  52    -6.59   +24.59
AWAY   # 40 Texas                       57  73    -8.35    -7.65
HOME   # 23 Tennessee                   45  68    -3.85   -19.15
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               93  77    -7.73   +23.73
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      67  81    -9.82    -4.18
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  58  76   -12.95    -5.05
HOME   # 26 Oklahoma                    88  80    -3.69   +11.69
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -8.60             0.265
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          -6.61             0.298
HOME   # 24 TCU                                   -3.77             0.369
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                        -14.09             0.166
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +0.32             0.511
AWAY   # 26 Oklahoma                             -10.05             0.200