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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 12
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6 years 2 months ago #16366
by asteroid
Texas Tech won on the road while Kansas did not, and the result is that the Red Raiders
have become the conference front-runner. Baylor's win coupled with Texas' loss enabled
the Bears to take over seventh place from the Longhorns. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05
# 7 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
# 8 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64
# 24 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79
# 49 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00
# 17 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07
# 28 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20
# 37 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30
# 51 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80
# 76 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54
Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 11 Texas Tech 11.77 11.98 12.49 9 3 OU (Tu) TT by 6.1
# 7 Kansas 12.55 12.78 12.06 8 4 @ISU (Tu) KU by 8.7 RW
# 8 West Virginia 11.04 11.55 10.63 7 5 TCU (Mo) WVU by 6.6
# 24 Oklahoma 10.33 9.86 9.14 6 6 @TTU (Tu)
# 49 Kansas State 8.47 9.23 8.65 6 6 @OSU (We)
# 17 TCU 8.33 8.13 8.44 5 7 @WVU (Mo)
# 28 Baylor 6.48 7.07 7.85 5 7 @UT (Mo)
# 37 Texas 8.82 8.02 7.69 5 7 BU (Mo) UT by 1.9
# 51 Oklahoma State 6.92 6.32 7.25 5 7 KSU (We) OSU by 2.6
# 76 Iowa State 5.29 5.06 5.80 4 8 KU (Tu)
Texas and Baylor battle for seventh place on Monday. Either Texas Tech will get its first
home loss of the season on Tuesday, or else Oklahoma will go down in defeat for the fourth
game in a row, effectively ending any hopes of a conference championship. Let's hope that
motivates the Sooners.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over ISU 8.7
WVU over TCU 6.6
TTU over OU 6.1
OSU over KSU 2.6
UT over BU 1.9
Yours truly's trend analysis won honors for best prognostications in Round 12, the
second such win of the season. Sagarin retains the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
WVU over OSU 8.4 10.0 10.5 12.5 8.0 12.0 12.0 10.7 10.4 16.9 11.0 18.0 8.5 8.0 11.0
TCU over UT 4.6 5.0 4.7 5.5 1.5 5.5 5.2 4.1 4.8 6.2 3.0 10.0 5.3 4.8 6.6
OU over ISU 4.5 3.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.9 4.0 1.0 -1.0 7.0 7.5 2.7
KU over BU 3.2 1.0 1.6 1.5 -1.0 2.0 2.4 9.4 4.0 3.3 11.0 3.0 4.1 4.6 -0.2
TTU over KSU 2.1 2.0 2.5 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.2 2.9 -2.0 -2.0 3.5 4.0 1.4
Reality Er1or 1 1 5 2 2
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
-3 11.4 13.0 13.5 15.5 11.0 15.0 15.0 13.7 13.4 19.9 14.0 21.0 11.5 11.0 14.0
16 11.4 11.0 11.3 10.5 14.5 10.5 10.8 11.9 11.2 9.8 13.0 6.0 10.7 11.2 9.4
-8 12.5 11.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.4 13.2 13.9 12.0 9.0 7.0 15.0 15.5 10.7
-16 19.2 17.0 17.6 17.5 15.0 18.0 18.4 25.4 20.0 19.3 27.0 19.0 20.1 20.6 15.8
19 16.9 17.0 16.5 18.0 20.0 17.5 16.4 15.9 15.8 16.1 21.0 21.0 15.5 15.0 17.6
total 71.4 69.0 71.9 75.5 74.5 73.0 73.0 80.1 74.3 77.1 84.0 74.0 72.8 73.3 67.5
previous 485.6 518.0 498.5 492.0 487.0 501.0 505.1 569.3 512.6 500.0 490.0 587.0 505.4 505.8 548.9
cumulative 557.0 587.0 570.4 567.5 561.5 574.0 578.1 649.4 586.9 577.1 574.0 661.0 578.2 579.1 616.4
per game 9.3 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.6 10.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 11.0 9.6 9.7 10.3
Three road wins were projected for Round 12, but only two happened, and one of them was
unexpected, meaning two other projected road wins didn't happen. Only one road win is
projected for Round 13, and Kansas really needs it to happen. We're right at the long-term
average of one in three. Whose is going to get those last 10 road wins?
Road wins (20 out of 60) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
4 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU 0 Texas Tech +3 Texas Tech
3 Kansas State ISU BU UT 1 Oklahoma WVU +2 Kansas
3 Texas Tech KU TCU KSU 2 West Virginia WVU OSU +1 West Virginia
3 West Virginia OSU KSU OU 2 Baylor TCU KSU 0 Kansas State
2 Oklahoma State KU WVU 2 Iowa State KSU UT 0 Oklahoma
2 TCU BU OSU 2 Kansas TTU OSU -1 Baylor
1 Baylor OSU 2 Texas KU KSU -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma TCU 3 Kansas State WVU KU TTU -1 TCU
1 Texas ISU 3 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU -1 Texas
0 Iowa State 3 TCU OU KU TTU -2 Iowa State
It is performances like Saturday's that is keeping Kansas at the bottom of the conference
in trend and mental toughness.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.55 TCU 8.17
Oklahoma +0.62 Texas 9.56
TCU +0.54 Oklahoma State 9.57
Kansas +0.24 Oklahoma 9.77
West Virginia +0.08 Baylor 10.64
Oklahoma State +0.01 Kansas State 10.95
Kansas State -0.09 Texas Tech 11.35
Baylor -0.20 Kansas 13.63
Texas -0.42 Iowa State 13.71
Iowa State -1.62 West Virginia 15.25
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.52 +/- 0.40 Iowa State +0.39 +/- 0.22
TCU +0.13 +/- 0.23 Texas Tech +0.07 +/- 0.20
Baylor +0.11 +/- 0.32 TCU +0.02 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State +0.05 +/- 0.27 Oklahoma State 0.00 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech -0.11 +/- 0.32 Baylor -0.04 +/- 0.17
West Virginia -0.13 +/- 0.43 Oklahoma -0.04 +/- 0.20
Kansas State -0.23 +/- 0.31 Texas -0.06 +/- 0.17
Texas -0.29 +/- 0.26 Kansas State -0.07 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma -0.32 +/- 0.29 West Virginia -0.17 +/- 0.26
Kansas -0.80 +/- 0.35 Kansas -0.66 +/- 0.31
Everyone is now in the Top 50 in terms of strength of schedule, eight are in the
Top 25, and four are in the Top 10. Iowa State might join the Top 10 club after
Tuesday's tilt with Kansas.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 88.46 Texas Tech 62.68 Oklahoma 170.75 Texas Tech +12.92
TCU 84.32 Kansas State 68.00 TCU 161.72 West Virginia +11.68
Kansas 81.16 Texas 68.28 Kansas 152.24 Kansas +10.08
West Virginia 80.36 West Virginia 68.68 Oklahoma State 150.52 TCU +6.92
Oklahoma State 76.80 Baylor 69.17 West Virginia 149.04 Baylor +6.38
Texas Tech 75.60 Kansas 71.08 Iowa State 147.58 Oklahoma +6.17
Baylor 75.54 Oklahoma State 73.72 Baylor 144.71 Kansas State +4.48
Iowa State 73.04 Iowa State 74.54 Kansas State 140.48 Texas +3.56
Kansas State 72.48 TCU 77.40 Texas 140.12 Oklahoma State +3.08
Texas 71.84 Oklahoma 82.29 Texas Tech 138.28 Iowa State -1.50
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 81.80 ( 1)
Texas 81.19 ( 2)
Kansas 80.89 ( 4)
Baylor 80.17 ( 9)
Iowa State 79.82 (12)
Oklahoma State 79.66 (13)
TCU 79.51 (16)
West Virginia 79.21 (22)
Kansas State 78.37 (40)
Texas Tech 78.00 (45)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, hairyhawk, Socalhawk
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