Updated Big 12 Probabilities (quoting the great philosopher Doris Day)

Que' sera, sera! At this point after the bloodbath yesterday at the top of the Big 12, save for Texas Tech, the Big 12 championship is not yet a fait accompli but it is close. Texas Tech has taken a 1 game lead in the Big 12 race but more importantly they have a 1.5 game lead in the probabilistic standings. KU is now projected to win 11.6 games while Texas Tech is projected to win 13.1 games. Texas Tech has experienced a bit of a resurgence while Kansas seems to be going the opposite way. But not as much as Oklahoma. Oklahoma has straight up fallen off the map. Oklahoma has lost 3 in a row and 5 of the last 7 Big 12 games. They join Kansas and Kansas St for the worst current trends. Texas Tech now has a 68% probability of winning the Big 12 outright and an 86% probability of winning at least a share of the title. With 6 games to go this is a strong position for Texas Tech. They do have to play West Virginia and Kansas back to back. KU still controls their own destiny, though. If we win out we would still be guaranteed at least a share of the championship. But KU winning out is looking like a long shot to say the least. It is actually not an impossible looking long shot but definitely an improbably one. The probability of KU winning out is 5.6%.




Kansas State opened Big 12 play with a projected 5.5 wins in Big 12 play. They burst from the gate winning 4 of their first 7 and looking like they could even get to contender status. Since, they have faltered rather badly losing 3 of the last 4. They have actually fallen to 58th in my DPPI one place behind the suddenly resurgent Oklahoma St. Cowboys. But they still win the award for greatest overachievers since they are projected to win 3 games more than at the beginning of Big 12 play. OU is clearly the biggest underachiever. They were actually projected to win the most games in the Big 12 at 12.2. Now they are projected to win only 9.3. Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech are the other overachievers. Everyone else is currently projected to win within 1 game of the original projection.

"So you're saying there's a chance"