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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
- asteroid
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7 years 7 months ago #16315
by asteroid
Perhaps it's a good thing that Kansas has more road games left than home
games, as the Jayhawks have played better on the road than at home. Let's
hope that trend continues this Saturday.
Asterisk, round two. Seven Overtimes had the venue wrong the first time we
played Baylor, and indeed it's wrong again for the rematch in Waco. That
explains why Kansas is favored by 11 points, the most optimistic of all the
various prognostications. The most pessimistic is Sagarin's Recent Games
method, which has Baylor by 7 points. Dunkel has also picked Baylor by a
single point, while the trend adjustment favors Baylor slightly in an
overtime game. Everybody else likes Kansas, except the common opponents
comparison, where Kansas has more of the favorable comparisons, but falls
short in the average by less than a tenth of a point.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Baylor grabs more total rebounds per game, gets a higher offensive rebound
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt. Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in only three, namely
opponents' effective field goal percentage, steals per game, and personal
fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Texas Southern and all the other conference
members, two of which Baylor has played twice (Iowa State and Oklahoma State),
and two of which Kansas has played twice (TCU and Kansas State), plus the
head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us fourteen scores to compare:
KU +43 TxS at home (+40 neutral court)
BU +31 TxS at home (+28 neutral court)
KU +9 BU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
BU -24 TTU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU +3 BU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU +7 TCU at home ( +4 neutral court) KU +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court) BU -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +7 BU on road (+10 neutral court) KU +10 BU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court)
BU +9 UT at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU 0 BU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
BU -3 WVU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court) KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
BU -10 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court) BU +14 ISU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU +6 BU on road ( +9 neutral court) KU -12 BU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court) KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
BU +16 OSU at home (+13 neutral court) BU +11 OSU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU -24 BU on road (-21 neutral court) KU -25 BU on road (-22 neutral court)
KU +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)
BU -7 KSU at home (-10 neutral court) BU -7 KSU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU +5 BU on road ( +8 neutral court) KU +24 BU on road (+27 neutral court)
KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court)
BU -2 OU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -6 BU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU -3 BU on road ( 0 neutral court)
Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas while five favor Baylor, with one being a
wash. The most favorable for Baylor is their most recent game in Stillwater,
implying a 25 point win for the Bears, while the most favorable for Kansas is
the win over Kansas State in Manhattan, implying a 24 point win for the Jayhawks.
The average actually favors Baylor, but by only 0.07 points, with a scatter of
13.27 points.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Manu Lecomte guard
Leading scorer Manu Lecomte guard
Leading rebounder Jo Acuil forward
Most assists Manu Lecomte guard
Most steals Jake Lindsey guard
Most blocks Jo Acuil forward
Most turnovers Jo Acuil forward
Most fouls Jo Acuil forward
18-5 14-10
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +2.38 76 73 # 6 # 6 # 30 # 12
Sagarin Predictor +3.23 76 73 60.7 # 6 # 6 # 32 # 12
Sagarin Golden Mean +2.94 76 73 # 7 # 6 # 34 # 12
Sagarin Recent Games -7.37 71 78 # 29 # 6 # 9 # 12
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +3.87 74 70
Sagarin Combo +5.82 77 71 # 4 # 8 # 51 # 22
Sagarin Elo +7.00 78 71 # 7 # 8 # 72 # 22
Sagarin Blue +4.00 76 72 # 6 # 8 # 39 # 22
performance adjust +4.08 76 72
trend adjust -0.24 74 74
Massey +1.00 73 72 51.0 # 13 # 3 # 58 # 39
Pomeroy +1.62 73 71 # 11 # 7 # 40 # 32
Greenfield +1.50 74 73 # 7 # 6 # 32 # 16
Dunkel -1.00 75.5 76.5 # 12 # 48
Vegas (via Dunkel) +2.00 73.5 71.5
Real Time RPI +3.00 80 77 # 8 # 4 # 83 # 37
Real Time GAMER +3.00 80 77 55.1 # 8 # 4 # 83 # 37
Dolphin Predictive +2.36 74 72 58.1 # 9 # 6 # 41 # 26
ESPN BPI +3.30 62.6 # 7 # 21 # 40 # 20
Seven Overtimes +11.00 80 69 90.0 # 5 # 3 #102 # 39
Whitlock +4.02 # 9 # 3 # 48 # 49
DPPI +2.90 72 69 59.5 # 9 # 2 # 39 # 41
Colley Matrix +9.42 # 6 # 2 # 77 # 33
CBN RPI # 6 # 1 # 76 # 40
LRMC # 9 # 1 # 38 # 41
common opponents -0.07
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.91 +/- 3.53
So the average favors Kansas by a field goal (of the football variety), though the
scatter is larger, suggesting that it would be easy for the game to go either way.
Here is Kansas' season; all remaining games are projected wins, except
for the game in Lubbock, which remains a toss-up, though now favoring
Texas Tech slightly. The projected season record remains at 24-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #200 Tennessee State 92 56 +25.95 +10.05
NEUT # 16 Kentucky 65 61 +4.89 -0.89
HOME # 94 South Dakota State 98 64 +17.13 +16.87
HOME #233 Texas Southern 114 71 +28.06 +14.94
HOME #148 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +21.62 +21.38
HOME #110 Toledo 96 58 +19.12 +18.88
NEUT # 48 Syracuse 76 60 +8.48 +7.52
HOME # 97 Washington 65 74 +17.65 -26.65
HOME # 37 Arizona State 85 95 +10.32 -20.32
AWAY # 66 Nebraska 73 72 +8.13 -7.13
HOME #256 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +29.40 +15.60
AWAY # 86 Stanford 75 54 +9.96 +11.04
AWAY # 34 Texas 92 86 +3.62 +2.38
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 85 +6.25 -18.25
AWAY # 22 TCU 88 84 +2.23 +1.77
HOME # 80 Iowa State 83 78 +15.93 -10.93
HOME # 47 Kansas State 73 72 +11.49 -10.49
AWAY # 8 West Virginia 71 66 -1.93 +6.93
HOME # 32 Baylor 70 67 +9.57 -6.57
AWAY # 20 Oklahoma 80 85 +1.96 -6.96
HOME # 24 Texas A&M 79 68 +8.68 +2.32
AWAY # 47 Kansas State 70 56 +5.15 +8.85
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State 79 84 +13.08 -18.08
HOME # 22 TCU 71 64 +8.57 -1.57
AWAY # 32 Baylor +3.23 0.607
AWAY # 80 Iowa State +9.59 0.760
HOME # 8 West Virginia +4.41 0.625
HOME # 20 Oklahoma +8.30 0.761
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech -0.09 0.497
HOME # 34 Texas +9.96 0.805
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +6.74 0.720
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #211 Central Arkansas 107 66 +20.06 +20.94
HOME #287 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi 70 46 +24.98 -0.98
HOME #340 Alcorn State 78 61 +31.62 -14.62
NEUT # 68 Wisconsin 70 65 +5.11 -0.11
NEUT # 15 Creighton 65 59 -1.86 +7.86
AWAY # 12 Xavier-Ohio 63 76 -6.46 -6.54
HOME # 13 Wichita State 62 69 +0.10 -7.10
HOME #217 Sam Houston State 84 56 +20.36 +7.64
Div2 Randall University 105 82
HOME #233 Texas Southern 99 68 +21.66 +9.34
HOME #329 Savannah State 118 86 +29.32 +2.68
HOME #318 Southern U. 80 60 +27.28 -7.28
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 53 77 -6.49 -17.51
HOME # 22 TCU 78 81 +2.17 -5.17
HOME # 34 Texas 69 60 +3.56 +5.44
AWAY # 8 West Virginia 54 57 -8.33 +5.33
AWAY # 80 Iowa State 65 75 +3.19 -13.19
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State 76 60 +6.68 +9.32
AWAY # 6 Kansas 67 70 -9.57 +6.57
HOME # 47 Kansas State 83 90 +5.09 -12.09
AWAY # 28 Florida 60 81 -3.69 -17.31
AWAY # 20 Oklahoma 96 98 -4.44 +2.44
HOME # 80 Iowa State 81 67 +9.53 +4.47
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State 67 56 +0.34 +10.66
HOME # 6 Kansas -3.23 0.393
AWAY # 34 Texas -2.78 0.389
HOME # 11 Texas Tech -0.15 0.494
HOME # 8 West Virginia -1.99 0.436
AWAY # 22 TCU -4.17 0.325
HOME # 20 Oklahoma +1.90 0.576
AWAY # 47 Kansas State -1.25 0.452
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, Bayhawk
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