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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 11
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7 years 7 months ago #16294
by asteroid
Kansas State won the battle of 5-5 teams and as a result returned to the upper division,
replacing Texas, whose unprojected home loss marginally slid them behind TCU as well.
Baylor got a road win in Stillwater and reclaimed eighth place from the Cowboys as a
reward. No other changes.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 6 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
# 12 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05
# 8 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64
# 20 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79
# 46 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00
# 22 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07
# 34 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30
# 32 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20
# 52 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80
# 82 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54
Rd 10 Rd 11
Pred Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 6 Kansas 12.55 12.78 8 3 @BU (Sa) KU by 3.3 RW
# 12 Texas Tech 11.77 11.98 8 3 @KSU (Sa) TTU by 2.1 RW
# 8 West Virginia 11.04 11.55 7 4 OSU (Sa) WVU by 11.8
# 20 Oklahoma 10.33 9.86 6 5 @ISU (Sa) OU by 4.4 RW
# 46 Kansas State 8.47 9.23 6 5 TTU (Sa)
# 22 TCU 8.33 8.13 4 7 UT (Sa) TCU by 4.6
# 34 Texas 8.82 8.02 5 6 @TCU (Sa)
# 32 Baylor 6.48 7.07 4 7 KU (Sa)
# 52 Oklahoma State 6.92 6.32 4 7 @WVU (Sa)
# 82 Iowa State 5.29 5.06 3 8 OU (Sa)
Only West Virginia has what I would call a "comfortable" game this weekend, if any game
against a Big 12 opponent could be considered comfortable. Texas Tech has the toughest
assignment, and it would be great for Kansas if the Wildcats could pull off a much-needed
win.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
WVU over OSU 11.8
TCU over UT 4.6
OU over ISU 4.4
KU over BU 3.3
TTU over KSU 2.1
Yours truly's home court adjustment method won honors for best prognostications in Round 11,
the second such win of the season. Sagarin has regained the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TTU over ISU 12.6 13.0 13.8 14.0 8.5 14.0 13.7 14.4 14.8 17.3 11.0 18.0 15.8 15.4 7.0
KU over TCU 8.7 6.0 6.4 7.0 5.0 7.5 7.7 8.7 6.8 9.8 5.0 11.0 8.8 8.3 4.6
UT over KSU 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.0 1.5 5.5 5.3 4.5 5.2 6.5 5.0 8.0 5.0 4.5 5.2
WVU over OU 0.7 -4.0 -0.7 -2.5 -5.0 -2.0 0.3 -4.6 -2.6 -0.1 -2.0 -9.0 0.1 0.6 1.6
OSU over BU 0.4 3.0 1.4 1.0 -1.5 2.0 2.5 5.1 2.5 1.2 6.0 9.0 0.9 0.5 2.5
Reality Er1or 1 1 5 2 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
18 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.0 9.5 4.0 4.3 3.6 3.2 0.7 7.0 0.0 2.2 2.6 11.0
7 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.7 0.2 2.8 2.0 4.0 1.8 1.3 2.4
-3 8.2 9.0 8.1 8.0 4.5 8.5 8.3 7.5 8.2 9.5 8.0 11.0 8.0 7.5 8.2
2 1.3 6.0 2.7 4.5 7.0 4.0 1.7 6.6 4.6 2.1 4.0 11.0 1.9 1.4 0.4
-11 11.4 14.0 12.4 12.0 9.5 13.0 13.5 16.1 13.5 12.2 17.0 20.0 11.9 11.5 13.5
total 28.0 35.0 28.0 28.5 32.5 30.0 28.5 35.5 29.7 27.3 38.0 46.0 25.8 24.3 35.5
previous 457.6 483.0 470.5 463.5 454.5 471.0 476.6 533.8 482.9 472.7 452.0 541.0 479.6 481.5 513.4
cumulative 485.6 518.0 498.5 492.0 487.0 501.0 505.1 569.3 512.6 500.0 490.0 587.0 505.4 505.8 548.9
per game 8.8 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.2 10.4 9.3 9.1 8.9 10.7 9.2 9.2 10.0
Only one road win was projected for Round 11, but three happened. Now we're right on
the long-term average of one in three. Three road wins are projected for Round 12, but
it would help Kansas if the one in Manhattan didn't happen.
Road wins (18 out of 55) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
4 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU 0 Texas Tech +2 Kansas
3 Kansas State ISU BU UT 1 Oklahoma WVU +2 Texas Tech
3 West Virginia OSU KSU OU 1 West Virginia WVU +2 West Virginia
2 TCU BU OSU 2 Baylor TCU KSU +1 Kansas State
2 Texas Tech KU TCU 2 Iowa State KSU UT 0 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma TCU 2 Kansas TTU OSU -1 Texas
1 Oklahoma State KU 2 Kansas State WVU KU -1 TCU
1 Texas ISU 2 Texas KU KSU -1 Baylor
1 Baylor OSU 3 Oklahoma State WVU TCU BU -2 Iowa State
0 Iowa State 3 TCU OU KU TTU -2 Oklahoma State
Kansas is having a hard time shedding those bottom-of-the-conference trend and mental toughness
ratings, but their consistency has been improving.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.44 TCU 8.11
Oklahoma +0.74 Oklahoma State 9.41
Kansas +0.46 Texas 9.51
TCU +0.42 Oklahoma 9.61
West Virginia +0.24 Baylor 10.22
Kansas State +0.03 Kansas State 10.56
Oklahoma State -0.11 Texas Tech 11.26
Texas -0.34 Kansas 13.35
Baylor -0.40 Iowa State 13.71
Iowa State -1.80 West Virginia 15.45
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.44 +/- 0.43 Iowa State +0.37 +/- 0.22
TCU +0.05 +/- 0.24 Texas Tech +0.04 +/- 0.20
West Virginia +0.01 +/- 0.47 TCU +0.02 +/- 0.17
Kansas State -0.07 +/- 0.32 Kansas State -0.02 +/- 0.18
Baylor -0.11 +/- 0.33 Oklahoma -0.02 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State -0.11 +/- 0.28 Texas -0.03 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma -0.20 +/- 0.31 Oklahoma State -0.06 +/- 0.16
Texas -0.21 +/- 0.28 Baylor -0.09 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech -0.28 +/- 0.33 West Virginia -0.14 +/- 0.26
Kansas -0.70 +/- 0.37 Kansas -0.56 +/- 0.32
Only two Big 12 teams are not in the Top 25 in terms of strength of schedule.
Tech playing at home against the league's cellar dwellar made them slip out of
the Top 50.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 88.74 Texas Tech 63.42 Oklahoma 170.87 Texas Tech +12.50
TCU 84.29 Texas 67.58 TCU 161.88 West Virginia +12.46
Kansas 81.79 West Virginia 67.79 Kansas 152.58 Kansas +11.00
West Virginia 80.25 Kansas State 68.00 Oklahoma State 149.58 TCU +6.71
Oklahoma State 76.25 Baylor 69.30 West Virginia 148.04 Oklahoma +6.61
Texas Tech 75.92 Kansas 70.79 Iowa State 146.70 Baylor +6.13
Baylor 75.43 Oklahoma State 73.33 Baylor 144.74 Kansas State +5.63
Kansas State 73.63 Iowa State 74.22 Kansas State 141.63 Texas +4.21
Iowa State 72.48 TCU 77.58 Texas 139.38 Oklahoma State +2.92
Texas 71.79 Oklahoma 82.13 Texas Tech 139.33 Iowa State -1.74
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 81.44 ( 1)
Texas 80.56 ( 3)
Kansas 80.44 ( 5)
Iowa State 79.73 (10)
TCU 79.47 (12)
Baylor 79.46 (13)
West Virginia 79.25 (17)
Oklahoma State 78.95 (22)
Kansas State 77.91 (44)
Texas Tech 77.46 (51)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, CorpusJayhawk, Bayhawk, NotOstertag, Socalhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 7 months ago #16295
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Glad to see the projection, but dang if it doesn't seem that projections this year are as iffy as they've ever been.
One fun fact: only 1 team in the Big 12 has a winning road record (KU, 4-1). Two (WVU and KSU) are at .500.
Of course our 4-2 home record (in conference) puts us in a tie for 2nd to last if you look at it from the "two losses" standpoint. Tech is 6-0, OU is 5-1, and KU and Texas at 4-2, and KSU, ISU, and Baylor are 3-2.
Hoping you're correct and Baylor falls to .500 at home on Saturday, and KSU gets their 4th home win in the Schlocktagon of Dumb.
One fun fact: only 1 team in the Big 12 has a winning road record (KU, 4-1). Two (WVU and KSU) are at .500.
Of course our 4-2 home record (in conference) puts us in a tie for 2nd to last if you look at it from the "two losses" standpoint. Tech is 6-0, OU is 5-1, and KU and Texas at 4-2, and KSU, ISU, and Baylor are 3-2.
Hoping you're correct and Baylor falls to .500 at home on Saturday, and KSU gets their 4th home win in the Schlocktagon of Dumb.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant
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