×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for TCU game
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 588
- Thank you received: 3083
6 years 2 months ago #16230
by asteroid
WARNING: I'll be traveling for Saturday's game, so I might not be able to post
the usual prediction summary.
Perhaps it's a good thing that Kansas is no longer #1 in Sagarin's Recent Games
ranking, as the last two teams to hold that distinction both lost their next
game. It does bear repeating, however: take any opponent in this conference
for granted, and you lose. Did Kansas take Oklahoma State for granted? I
suspect that at least some of the Jayhawks did, hence the shake-up among the
starters.
And what's happened to the home court advantage?
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in three of them,
namely average score margin, effective field goal percentage, and turnover
percentage. Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
all but offensive rebounds per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are ten common opponents, Omaha, Texas Southern, and all the other
conference members, one of which TCU has played twice (Oklahoma), and one of
which Kansas has played twice (Kansas State), plus the head-to-head in Fort
Worth, giving us thirteen scores to compare:
KU +45 Oma at home (+42 neutral court)
TCU +33 Oma at home (+30 neutral court)
KU +15 TCU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU +43 TxS at home (+40 neutral court)
TCU +19 TxS at home (+16 neutral court)
KU +27 TCU at home (+24 neutral court)
KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court) KU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -1 OU at home ( -4 neutral court) TCU -5 OU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court) KU +3 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +3 BU at home ( 0 neutral court)
TCU +3 BU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court)
TCU -1 UT on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +10 TCU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
TCU +23 ISU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU -15 TCU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court) KU +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TCU -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court) TCU -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU +22 TCU at home (+19 neutral court) KU +3 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
TCU +9 WVU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU -5 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
TCU +13 OSU on road (+16 neutral court)
KU -21 TCU at home (-24 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
TCU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KU +3 TCU at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +10 TCU at home ( +7 neutral court)
Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas while three favor TCU, the Oklahoma State
comparison being the most favorable for TCU (21 points), and the Texas Southern
comparison being the most favorable for Kansas (27 points). The average is
just 4.92 points, with a scatter of 13.15 points.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Kenrich Williams guard
Leading scorer Vladimir Brodziansky forward
Leading rebounder Kenrich Williams guard
Most assists Alex Robinson guard
Most steals Kenrich Williams guard
Most blocks Vladimir Brodziansky forward
Most turnovers Alex Robinson guard
Most fouls Kenrich Williams guard
Guard Jaylen Fisher is out for the season following knee surgery. He was
third on the team in scoring, though the drop-off to the sixth man is less
than 3 points. RJ Nembhard suffered an ankle injury, but it's uncertain
whether he'll be able to play. He's tenth on the team in minutes played,
so a little-used reserve.
18-5 16-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas TCU
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +7.89 83 75 # 5 # 4 # 26 # 22
Sagarin Predictor +8.70 83 75 77.9 # 6 # 4 # 24 # 22
Sagarin Golden Mean +7.38 83 75 # 7 # 4 # 24 # 22
Sagarin Recent Games +5.21 82 76 # 41 # 4 # 54 # 22
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +9.60 87 78
Sagarin Combo +10.23 84 74 # 4 # 6 # 29 # 22
Sagarin Elo +11.37 85 73 # 7 # 6 # 35 # 22
Sagarin Blue +8.96 84 75 # 6 # 6 # 26 # 22
performance adjust +8.75 83 75
trend adjust +4.55 81 77
Massey +6.00 84 78 70.0 # 13 # 3 # 32 # 21
Pomeroy +6.36 80 73 # 11 # 7 # 25 # 28
Greenfield +7.00 80.5 73.5 # 6 # 3 # 18 # 20
Dunkel +5.00 82 77 # 12 # 20
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.50 82 74.5
Real Time RPI +11.00 82 71 # 9 # 5 # 31 # 22
Real Time GAMER +11.00 82 71 69.8 # 9 # 5 # 31 # 22
Dolphin Predictive +7.68 85 77 73.5 # 9 # 7 # 25 # 24
ESPN BPI +9.80 80.9 # 7 # 18 # 21 # 17
Seven Overtimes +5.00 82 77 80.0 # 6 # 3 # 26 # 28
Whitlock +6.81 # 9 # 4 # 28 # 17
DPPI +5.70 82 76 73.2 # 8 # 2 # #
Colley Matrix +8.74 # 6 # 2 # 28 # 22
CBN RPI # 9 # 3 # 30 # 21
LRMC # 10 # 1 # 22 # 16
common opponents +4.92 82 77
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.7 +/- 2.1
So, not a lot of scatter in the predictions. They all favor Kansas by an average
of 7.7 points.
Here is Kansas' season; all remaining games are projected wins, except
for the game in Lubbock, which is back to toss-up status. The projected
season record is back down to 24-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #213 Tennessee State 92 56 +26.49 +9.51
NEUT # 17 Kentucky 65 61 +4.91 -0.91
HOME # 96 South Dakota State 98 64 +17.12 +16.88
HOME #234 Texas Southern 114 71 +28.15 +14.85
HOME #144 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +21.44 +21.56
HOME #108 Toledo 96 58 +18.97 +19.03
NEUT # 46 Syracuse 76 60 +8.55 +7.45
HOME # 93 Washington 65 74 +16.93 -25.93
HOME # 38 Arizona State 85 95 +10.31 -20.31
AWAY # 68 Nebraska 73 72 +8.45 -7.45
HOME #254 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +29.39 +15.61
AWAY # 83 Stanford 75 54 +9.73 +11.27
AWAY # 32 Texas 92 86 +3.42 +2.58
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 85 +6.44 -18.44
AWAY # 24 TCU 88 84 +2.38 +1.62
HOME # 79 Iowa State 83 78 +15.87 -10.87
HOME # 47 Kansas State 73 72 +11.84 -10.84
AWAY # 8 West Virginia 71 66 -1.85 +6.85
HOME # 35 Baylor 70 67 +10.04 -7.04
AWAY # 19 Oklahoma 80 85 +2.11 -7.11
HOME # 25 Texas A&M 79 68 +8.85 +2.15
AWAY # 47 Kansas State 70 56 +5.52 +8.48
HOME # 51 Oklahoma State 79 84 +12.77 -17.77
HOME # 24 TCU +8.70 0.779
AWAY # 35 Baylor +3.72 0.621
AWAY # 79 Iowa State +9.55 0.755
HOME # 8 West Virginia +4.47 0.619
HOME # 19 Oklahoma +8.43 0.761
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech +0.12 0.504
HOME # 32 Texas +9.74 0.795
AWAY # 51 Oklahoma State +6.45 0.709
Here is TCU's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #272 Louisiana-Monroe 83 73 +25.05 -15.05
HOME #229 Tennessee Tech 100 63 +22.34 +14.66
HOME # 95 South Dakota 76 71 +11.52 -6.52
HOME #254 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 99 66 +23.85 +9.15
NEUT #122 New Mexico 69 67 +11.49 -9.49
NEUT # 64 St. Bonaventure 89 79 +5.69 +4.31
HOME # 97 Belmont 87 76 +11.77 -0.77
HOME #171 Yale 92 66 +17.94 +8.06
HOME # 43 SMU 94 83 +5.78 +5.22
NEUT # 36 Nevada 84 80 +1.42 +2.58
HOME #234 Texas Southern 91 72 +22.61 -3.61
HOME #182 William & Mary 86 75 +18.71 -7.71
HOME # 19 Oklahoma 89 90 +2.89 -3.89
AWAY # 35 Baylor 81 78 -1.82 +4.82
HOME # 6 Kansas 84 88 -2.38 -1.62
AWAY # 32 Texas 98 99 -2.12 +1.12
AWAY # 19 Oklahoma 97 102 -3.43 -1.57
HOME # 79 Iowa State 96 73 +10.33 +12.67
AWAY # 47 Kansas State 68 73 -0.02 -4.98
HOME # 8 West Virginia 82 73 -1.07 +10.07
AWAY # 76 Vanderbilt 78 81 +3.55 -6.55
AWAY # 51 Oklahoma State 79 66 +0.91 +12.09
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 71 83 +0.90 -12.90
AWAY # 6 Kansas -8.70 0.221
HOME # 32 Texas +4.20 0.680
AWAY # 8 West Virginia -7.39 0.279
HOME # 51 Oklahoma State +7.23 0.792
AWAY # 79 Iowa State +4.01 0.636
HOME # 35 Baylor +4.50 0.686
HOME # 47 Kansas State +6.30 0.745
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech -5.42 0.293
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, JayhawkChef, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: