Updated Odds Of Winning the Big 12 -- KU on the Rise

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago - 8 years 4 months ago #840 by CorpusJayhawk

Based on the latest and greatest results, KU's odds of winning the Big 12 have inched up slightly. We now have a 40.2% probability of winning at least a tie and a 31.8% probability of winning outright. We have the a P-50 of winning 13 games. Using Dolphin odds but the exact odds are for 12.9 games, It is turning into a 3 team race between KU, West Virginia and Oklahoma with Iowa State becoming a longer shot and Texas moving up. As soon as I have built the probability module of my DPPI I will begin using my probabilities and I think it will lean toward a tighter race between the top 5 with Texas being the 5th and Baylor being very long odds.

-Projected Conference Wins-	
Team        	Wins
-----------	------
Oklahoma     	13.0
Kansas       	12.9
West Virginia	12.8
Iowa St.     	10.0
Baylor       	9.1
Texas        	8.8
Texas Tech   	7.5
Kansas St.   	6.6
Oklahoma St. 	5.1
TCU          	4.1

--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Kansas      	31.8%	40.2%
Oklahoma    	35.5%	43.6%
West Virginia	29.5%	38.0%
Iowa St.    	1.9%	4.2%
Baylor      	0.7%	1.7%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.1%
Texas       	0.5%	1.3%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
Texas Tech  	0.1%	0.2%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	68.7%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	56.3%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	74.1%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	37.0%
TCU         	Lawrence    	91.5%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	74.0%
Texas       	Lawrence    	75.2%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	40.0%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	82.5%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	77.2%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	61.6%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	32.1%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	89.8%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	62.1%
Baylor      	Waco        	44.5%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	89.8%
Texas       	Austin      	52.2%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	64.6%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

Last Edit: 8 years 4 months ago by CorpusJayhawk.

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago #871 by CorpusJayhawk

I am so embarrassed. I made such a rookie mistake and while it has doggged me that I was missing something I never bothered to chase it down. It hit me in an epiphany and I have fixed the error that has been dogging me. Below are the corrected odds for winning the Big 12. My Solo odds were incorrect and I pretty much knew it but ignored it so I finally decided to figure it out and it was such a rookie mistake. I shall endevor to be more thorough in the future. In a nutshell when the combined odds for all teams to win the conference outright did not add to 100% I added a fudge factor to gross it up assuming that the summed probabilities must sum to 100%. But what I left out was the probability that there is no solo winner. In actuality that probability is quite significant. In fact it is about 24.5% probability currently. So there is a 75.5% chance that 1 team will win outright and there is a 24.5% chance that there will be co-champions. As a totally worthless fact, there is 1.87% probability that there are three or more teams tie for the championship. I hope Dave doesn't kick me off the board for such a egregious error.

--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Kansas      	24.0%	40.2%
Oklahoma    	26.8%	43.6%
West Virginia	22.3%	38.0%
Iowa St.    	1.4%	4.2%
Baylor      	0.5%	1.7%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.1%
Texas       	0.4%	1.3%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
Texas Tech  	0.1%	0.2%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 4 months ago #873 by HawkErrant

Dave better come online with a pardon for you real soon. Methinks I can see the townfolk climbing The Hill with their pitchforks and flaming torches held high and crying "Burn him and stake him! Burn him and stake him!"

You know how it is when it comes to anything related to to KU hoops - perfection is expected, less than that is miserably suffered by the masses.

(JK, of course, as evidenced by *my* continued existence!

)

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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Sieverling
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c'86. Call me Dave

8 years 4 months ago #875 by Sieverling

3 Rock Chalk chants.

Oh, and post your Jayhawk Night Before Christmas. Please.

Hic manebimus optime

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 4 months ago #879 by HawkErrant

Please post your homage for the record on the new site, and for the refreshment of our fellow feathered fans fading memories, so they may burn bright again with your "Christmas Carol".

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