Big 12 projection, Round 10

West Virginia humiliated Kansas State while Oklahoma fell in Austin, which enabled the
Mountaineers to take over third place from the Sooners in the projected standings.  The
victory by Texas was enough to leapfrog both Kansas State and TCU, who both lost, putting
the Longhorns into the upper division.  Although the Wildcats lost rather badly, it was a
projected loss, while TCU had been marginally favored over Texas Tech, so losing that game
hurt their projected win total more than Kansas State's loss, enabling the Wildcats to
secure sixth place while the Horned Frogs slid into seveth place.  Lastly, Oklahoma State's
stunning upset of Kansas enabled the Cowboys to take over eighth place from Baylor, whose
home win over Iowa State improved their projected win total, but not by nearly as much as
Oklahoma State's.  A rather wild round.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  
#  6  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85  13.52  13.69  13.07  13.61  
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49  11.76  10.61  10.72  11.05  
#  8  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44  11.80  12.29  11.66  10.64  
# 19  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46  10.53   9.88  10.60  10.79  
# 32  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04   8.77   8.09   8.37   8.30  
# 46  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17   8.05   8.63   9.46   9.00  
# 24  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06   8.41   7.88   8.58   9.07  
# 51  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18   5.72   6.42   6.28   5.80  
# 35  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15   7.57   7.47   6.58   6.20  
# 78  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16   3.87   5.04   4.68   5.54  

                      Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  6  Kansas          12.55    7  3   TCU (Tu)   KU  by  8.7
# 11  Texas Tech      11.77    7  3   ISU (We)   TTU by 12.4
#  8  West Virginia   11.04    6  4  @OU  (Mo)   WVU by  0.7  RW
# 19  Oklahoma        10.33    6  4   WVU (Mo)   
# 32  Texas            8.82    5  5   KSU (We)   UT  by  5.3
# 46  Kansas State     8.47    5  5  @UT  (We)   
# 24  TCU              8.33    4  6  @KU  (Tu)   
# 51  Oklahoma State   6.92    4  6   BU  (Tu)   OSU by  0.4
# 35  Baylor           6.48    3  7  @OSU (Tu)   
# 78  Iowa State       5.29    3  7  @TTU (We)

Prior to the revised ratings coming out, Oklahoma and Baylor were favored in their next games.
Not any more.  Texas Tech is projected to have the easiest game of the round, though it depends
on which Iowa State team shows up.  The Cyclones have been wildly inconsistent, but they did
handle the Red Raiders in Ames rather handily.

Predictions                                                                                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TTU over ISU 12.4
KU  over TCU  8.7
UT  over KSU  5.3
WVU over OU   0.7
OSU over BU   0.4

Dunkel won honors for best prognostications in Round 10, which isn't saying much, as it was
a horrible round for all, mainly due to West Virginia's humiliation of Kansas State.  Seven
Overtimes retains the season lead, though with two asterisks.  Add 12 points to account for
the two incorrect venues and Dunkel would have the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over OSU 14.0  12.0  12.3  12.0   7.5  13.5  13.3  16.8  13.4  17.2  12.0  22.0  14.9  14.4  14.6
BU  over ISU  8.7   8.0   7.9   8.0  10.0   8.0   7.7   2.0   6.8  10.1   3.0  10.0  10.0   9.5   4.0
WVU over KSU  8.5   6.0   5.8   8.0  11.5   7.5   7.2   4.5   5.9  10.6   5.0  11.0   8.0   7.6   6.0
TCU over TTU  1.9   4.0   1.5   4.0  -1.5   3.5   1.8   1.3   1.2   2.2   7.0   6.0   1.2   0.7   5.8
UT  over OU   1.6   4.0   1.7   3.0   4.5   3.0   1.9  -2.1   0.2   3.0   4.0   6.0   0.4  -0.1   0.7

    Reality  Er1or                     1                             1     5                 1     1
    -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
       -5    19.0  17.0  17.3  17.0  12.5  18.5  18.3  21.8  18.4  22.2  17.0  27.0  19.9  19.4  19.6
       14     5.3   6.0   6.1   6.0   4.0   6.0   6.3  12.0   7.2   3.9  11.0   4.0   4.0   4.5  10.0
       38    29.5  32.0  32.2  30.0  26.5  30.5  30.8  33.5  32.1  27.4  33.0  27.0  30.0  30.4  32.0
      -12    13.9  16.0  13.5  16.0  10.5  15.5  13.8  13.3  13.2  14.2  19.0  18.0  13.2  12.7  17.8
        5     3.4   1.0   3.3   2.0   0.5   2.0   3.1   7.1   4.8   2.0   1.0   1.0   4.6   5.1   4.3

total        71.1  72.0  72.4  71.0  54.0  72.5  72.3  87.7  75.7  69.7  81.0  77.0  71.7  72.1  83.7
previous    386.5 411.0 398.1 392.5 400.5 398.5 404.3 446.1 407.2 403.0 371.0 464.0 407.9 409.4 429.7
cumulative  457.6 483.0 470.5 463.5 454.5 471.0 476.6 533.8 482.9 472.7 452.0 541.0 479.6 481.5 513.4
per game      9.2   9.7   9.4   9.3   9.1   9.4   9.5  10.7   9.7   9.5   9.0  10.8   9.6   9.6  10.3

No road wins were projected for Round 10, but two occurred.  We're still two road wins
behind the long-term average of one in three.  Only one road win is projected for
Round 11, but it's effectively a toss-up game.

Road wins (15 out of 50)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
4 Kansas         UT  TCU WVU KSU            0 Oklahoma                          +2 Kansas        
2 Kansas State   ISU BU                     0 Texas Tech                        +2 Texas Tech    
2 TCU            BU  OSU                    1 Texas          KU                 +1 Oklahoma      
2 Texas Tech     KU  TCU                    1 West Virginia  WVU                +1 West Virginia 
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    2 Baylor         TCU KSU             0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        2 Iowa State     KSU UT              0 Texas         
1 Oklahoma State KU                         2 Kansas         TTU OSU            -1 Oklahoma State
1 Texas          ISU                        2 Kansas State   WVU KU             -1 TCU           
0 Baylor                                    2 Oklahoma State WVU TCU            -2 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                                3 TCU            OU  KU  TTU        -2 Iowa State    

Kansas is having a hard time shedding those bottom-of-the-conference trend and mental toughness
ratings, but their consistency has been improving.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.54    TCU               8.36    
Oklahoma        +0.80    Oklahoma State    9.40    
Kansas          +0.45    Texas             9.60    
TCU             +0.45    Oklahoma          9.84    
West Virginia   +0.21    Baylor           10.16    
Oklahoma State  -0.02    Kansas State     10.68    
Kansas State    -0.06    Texas Tech       11.34    
Texas           -0.29    Kansas           13.69    
Baylor          -0.57    Iowa State       13.98    
Iowa State      -1.94    West Virginia    15.68    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.54 +/- 0.47    Iowa State      +0.41 +/- 0.23
TCU             +0.04 +/- 0.27    Texas Tech      +0.04 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   +0.01 +/- 0.50    TCU             +0.02 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.01 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma        -0.02 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    -0.16 +/- 0.34    Texas           -0.03 +/- 0.17
Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.31    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.20 +/- 0.34    Oklahoma State  -0.05 +/- 0.16
Baylor          -0.25 +/- 0.35    Baylor          -0.11 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      -0.35 +/- 0.36    West Virginia   -0.15 +/- 0.27
Kansas          -0.78 +/- 0.41    Kansas          -0.56 +/- 0.33

Playing at home against the conference's cellar dwellar cost the Bears their
Top 10 strength of schedule ranking.  Playing at West Virginia didn't help
Kansas State quite as much as I thought it would, but it was enough to get
the Wildcats into the Top 50, barely.  Oklahoma playing at Texas was enough
to propel the Sooners into the top spot, which they should retain after getting
West Virginia on Big Monday.  The rating for Kansas slipped a bit, but the
ranking improved by a notch.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        89.55   Texas Tech      63.57   Oklahoma        171.91   West Virginia   +12.74   
TCU             85.09   Texas           67.52   TCU             163.04   Texas Tech      +12.43   
Kansas          82.35   West Virginia   67.65   Kansas          153.35   Kansas          +11.35   
West Virginia   80.39   Kansas State    68.26   Oklahoma State  150.74   Oklahoma         +7.18   
Oklahoma State  77.22   Baylor          70.00   West Virginia   148.04   TCU              +7.13   
Texas Tech      76.00   Kansas          71.00   Iowa State      147.27   Baylor           +5.73   
Baylor          75.73   Oklahoma State  73.52   Baylor          145.73   Kansas State     +5.57   
Kansas State    73.83   Iowa State      74.23   Kansas State    142.09   Texas            +4.70   
Iowa State      73.05   TCU             77.96   Texas           139.74   Oklahoma State   +3.70   
Texas           72.22   Oklahoma        82.36   Texas Tech      139.57   Iowa State       -1.18   

Schedule Strength 
-------------------------- 
Oklahoma        81.03 ( 1) 
Texas           80.77 ( 3) 
Kansas          80.18 ( 5) 
Baylor          79.05 (16) 
Iowa State      78.97 (17) 
TCU             78.82 (18) 
Oklahoma State  78.64 (22) 
West Virginia   78.63 (23) 
Texas Tech      77.72 (44)
Kansas State    77.30 (50)