Updated Big 12 Probabilistic Standings -- Texas Tech Back on Top

I post under protest of the whole general flavor of the certain aspects of the way this season has gone.

Positives
1. We have seven players who can actually play and we are once again in the hunt for a Big 12 championship
2. Devonte's Graham has been wonderful most of the season with a few bad outings. Generally he has been a bright light
3. Svi has finally emerged as a full meal deal player.
4. Marcus Garrett will be a 4 year player and shows signs that he will be someone we will enjoy 4 four years
5. Bill Self elected to the HOF
6. Udoka has been better than I had feared. Doubtful he will be drafted but a very solid season
7. Lightfoot has been effective at times and like Garrett has shown that we will be happy to have him for 4 years.
8. Malik is emerging (although it took him almost 20 games)

Negatives
1. Man oh man can this team play soft and low energy at times. Every team can do that on occasion but this team, when they play soft they are really soft and it has happened way too much.
2. 3 home losses and we still have 4 more home games.
3. LaGerald Vick has disappeared more than any player I can remember. Malik started the year below what we expected but was not terrible, just below expectation and probably so-so. LaGerald has been terrible since Big 12 play started. Really worse than terrible.
4. Bill Self made the worst coaching call I can remember since pulling RussRob and Darnell down the stretch against A&M in AFH in 2008. (that is what really cost us that game, not the Acie Law three pointer from the corner) when he let Udoka shoot those free throws against Oklahoma. Forgivable but egregious.
5. Maybe the worst loss in 20 years in the blowout loss to Washington
6. A home loss to OSU when they were missing a starter and were in 9th place.
7. The whole Billy Preston thing. Is it just me or have we had more than our share of Billy Preston things?
8. Watching De Sousa trying to come in the middle of the season and adapt. Man has that been tough. I feel for the kid.
9. Did I mention 3 home losses, which equals the number of home losses total for the last 5 years.
10. Watching Sam Cunliffe completely fail to thrive.

But here we are and based on my highly accurate DPPI, KU still has a decent probability of winning the Big 12.

We are tied at 7-3 with Texas Tech and 1 game ahead of West Virginia and Oklahoma.



Predicting the Big 12 before the conference games started compared to current predictions shows 7 teams within 1 game of preseason predictions. Fortunately, Oklahoma has under-performed that prediction since they actually were predicted to win. They are down about 1.6 games. Kansas St., despite their ignominious blowout yesterday by West Virginia, have over-performed by 2.8 games. KU is just about where they were predicted to be. Baylor has melted the worst, down 2.4 games.



Texas Tech is now projected to win 12.5 games which leads 2nd place KU who is projected to win 12.0 games. West Virginia is almost a game back at 11.1 followed by Oklahoma at 10.6. KU is still very much in the race.



Currently there is a 71.5% probability that a team wins outright and a 28.5% probability of a shared title. Texas Tech leads with a 37.2% probability of an outright championship. KU is 2nd at 22.5%.



Texas Tech has a 60% probability of winning at least a share of the Title. Ku is in 2nd at 42.7%. The loser of Big Monday between West Virginia and Oklahoma will be almost eliminated (never say never in this crazy season)

I really do always appreciate your posts so thanks for putting this all together. I'm excited for the rest of the season! Let's hold on and see what this team does!