predictions for Oklahoma State game

I hate these early tips.

Interesting that Kansas is now Sagarin's #1 team in the "Recent Games" rating
method.  Kansas State had been the #1 team before we obliterated them in the
Octogon.  It suggests to me that Sagarin's "Recent Games" rating method doesn't
take into account very many games.  After all, we had lost to Oklahoma just a
couple games earlier.

Did I mention that I hate these early tips?

As expected, Kansas did temporarily surpass Temple in the RPI's strength of
schedule, but did not become #1.  Instead, it was North Carolina who took over
the #1 spot.  However, also as expected, after Temple played Wichita State,
the Owls went right back into the #1 spot.  North Carolina remained ahead of
Kansas, though, so the Jayhawks have slid into the #3 spot in strength of
schedule.  Virginia tops the RPI, followed by Villanova, Xavier, Clemson,
Duke, and then Kansas.

Did I mention that I hate these early tips?

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Oklahoma State grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them; Oklahoma State gets
more offensive rebounds per game, while steals per game is a wash.

Did I mention that I hate these early tips?

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Texas A&M plus all the other conference members,
one of which Oklahoma State has played twice (Oklahoma) and one of which Kansas
has played twice (Kansas State), giving us 11 scores to compare:

KU  +11 A&M at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU -17 A&M neutral (-17 neutral court)
KU  +28 OSU at home (+25 neutral court)

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OSU  -6 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +20 OSU at home (+17 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
OSU -20 OU  on road (-17 neutral court)     OSU  +2 OU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +18 OSU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU   +2 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
OSU  +9 ISU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   -1 OSU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+17 neutral court)
OSU  -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)     OSU  -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +2 OSU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU  +21 OSU at home (+18 neutral court)

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
OSU  +1 UT  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +14 OSU at home (+11 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
OSU -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU  +16 OSU at home (+13 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
OSU  -5 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -10 OSU at home (-13 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU -13 TCU at home (-16 neutral court)
KU  +26 OSU at home (+23 neutral court)

Interesting that it's the in-state rivals that each team has played twice
already, before finishing the first run through the conference.  Anyway,
nine of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Oklahoma State.  The
range is rather wide, going from a 10 point loss based on the Texas Tech
comparison, to a 28 point win based on the Texas A&M comparison.  The
average is 12.4 points, but with a scatter of 12.3 points.  It simply
reinforces the point that you can't take any conference opponent for
granted.  Do that, and you lose.

Did I mention that I hate these early tips?

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading scorer        Jeffrey Carroll           guard
Leading rebounder     Mitchell Solomon          forward
Most assists          Brandon Averette          guard
Most steals           Lindy Waters              guard
Most blocks           Mitchell Solomon          forward
Most turnovers        Kendall Smith             guard
Most fouls            Mitchell Solomon          forward

Guard Tavarius Shine is out with a wrist injury.  He plays the third-most
minutes and scores the second-most points.  The drop-off in scoring to their
sixth man is only 3 points, however.

Did I mention that I hate these early tips?

                                                          18-4           13-9     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +14.51    83   69               #  5   #  6     # 59   # 38 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.96    83   69      89.0     #  6   #  6     # 56   # 38 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.65    83   69               #  6   #  6     # 62   # 38 
Sagarin Recent Games   +25.65    89   63               #  1   #  6     #143   # 38 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +15.02    83   68                                          
Sagarin Combo          +16.53    84   68               #  4   #  5     # 67   # 40
Sagarin Elo            +17.93    85   67               #  5   #  5     # 76   # 40
Sagarin Blue           +15.06    83   68               #  6   #  5     # 61   # 40
performance adjust     +14.88    83   68          
trend adjust           +14.62    83   68          
Massey                 +12.00    81   69      88.0     #  9   #  3     # 76   # 54 
Pomeroy                +12.33    79   67               #  7   #  4     # 74   # 50
Greenfield             +12.00    81   69               #  6   #  2     # 56   # 41
Dunkel                  +7.50    82   74               # 12            # 57       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50    81   65.5                                        
Real Time RPI          +22.00    90   68               #  6   #  4     # 95   # 84 
Real Time GAMER        +22.00    90   68      85.4     #  6   #  4     # 95   # 84 
Dolphin Predictive     +13.31    82   69      87.0     #  7   #  7     # 66   # 44
ESPN BPI               +17.20                 92.8     #  7   # 15     # 72   # 35
Seven Overtimes        +12.00    82   70      92.0     #  3   #  2     #116   # 42
Whitlock               +13.42                          #  8   #  4     # 68   # 42       
DPPI                   +15.10    79   64               #  8   #  2     #      #   
Colley Matrix          +16.75                          #  5   #  3     # 76   # 55
CBN RPI                                                #  6   #  3     #115   # 95
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  1     # 77   # 50
common opponents       +12.36                    
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +15.1 +/- 3.8

Here is Kansas' season; all remaining games are projected wins, with the
toughest being the road game in Lubbock, which follows a pair of home
games against West Virginia and Oklahoma, a crucial three-game stretch.
The projected season record is back up to 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #217 Tennessee State             92  56   +27.47    +8.53
NEUT   # 16 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.13    -1.13
HOME   # 91 South Dakota State          98  64   +17.67   +16.33
HOME   #228 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.21   +14.79
HOME   #137 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +21.80   +21.20
HOME   #115 Toledo                      96  58   +20.10   +17.90
NEUT   # 46 Syracuse                    76  60    +9.20    +6.80
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +17.91   -26.91
HOME   # 38 Arizona State               85  95   +10.93   -20.93
AWAY   # 66 Nebraska                    73  72    +9.10    -8.10
HOME   #254 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.83   +15.17
AWAY   # 92 Stanford                    75  54   +11.37    +9.63
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       92  86    +4.08    +1.92
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  73  85    +7.52   -19.52
AWAY   # 17 TCU                         88  84    +2.43    +1.57
HOME   # 76 Iowa State                  83  78   +16.19   -11.19
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                73  72   +11.32   -10.32
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -0.34    +5.34
HOME   # 35 Baylor                      70  67   +10.65    -7.65
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                    80  85    +2.53    -7.53
HOME   # 31 Texas A&M                   79  68   +10.01    +0.99
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                70  56    +5.00    +9.00
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma State                       +13.96             0.890
HOME   # 17 TCU                                   +8.75             0.788
AWAY   # 35 Baylor                                +4.33             0.642
AWAY   # 76 Iowa State                            +9.87             0.763
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +5.98             0.664
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                              +8.85             0.772
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +1.20             0.538
HOME   # 34 Texas                                +10.40             0.811
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma State                        +7.64             0.749

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #282 Pepperdine                  78  47   +20.83   +10.17
HOME   #284 Charlotte                   83  65   +20.97    -2.97
HOME   #220 Oral Roberts                91  48   +16.85   +26.15
NEUT   # 31 Texas A&M                   55  72    -3.95   -13.05
NEUT   #171 Pittsburgh                  73  67   +10.12    -4.12
HOME   #320 Houston Baptist            101  74   +23.73    +3.27
HOME   #218 Austin Peay                 79  63   +16.71    -0.71
HOME   #348 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)      83  62   +31.95   -10.95
HOME   # 12 Wichita State               66  78    -3.40    -8.60
NEUT   # 23 Florida State               71  70    -5.02    +6.02
HOME   #111 Tulsa                       71  59    +8.87    +3.13
HOME   #247 UTRGV                      102  83   +18.57    +0.43
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               79  85    -4.82    -1.18
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                    89 109    -8.27   -11.73
HOME   # 76 Iowa State                  96  87    +5.39    +3.61
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                82  86    -5.80    +1.80
HOME   # 34 Texas                       65  64    -0.40    +1.40
AWAY   # 35 Baylor                      60  76    -6.47    -9.53
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                    83  81    -1.95    +3.95
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  70  75    -9.60    +4.60
AWAY   # 40 Arkansas                    65  66    -5.87    +4.87
HOME   # 17 TCU                         66  79    -2.05   -10.95
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -13.96             0.110
HOME   # 35 Baylor                                -0.15             0.494
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                        -11.14             0.181
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                          +0.52             0.523
AWAY   # 17 TCU                                   -8.37             0.159
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            -3.28             0.374
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 -6.72             0.238
AWAY   # 76 Iowa State                            -0.93             0.469
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -7.64             0.251