×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 9
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 653
- Thank you received: 3457
7 years 5 months ago #16081
by asteroid
West Virginia succumbed to Hilton Magic and in the process dropped to fourth place in the
projected standings, allowing Texas Tech and Oklahoma to slide into second and third,
respectively. TCU handled Oklahoma State at home, while Kansas State fell to Kansas,
which enabled the Horned Frogs to return to the upper division at the expense of the
Wildcats. No other changes, though Iowa State is now within spitting distance of escaping
the cellar, but with their next two games on the road, it doesn't look like it'll happen
any time soon.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 6 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
# 13 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 10.61 10.72 11.05
# 19 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 9.88 10.60 10.79
# 9 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 12.29 11.66 10.64
# 18 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 7.88 8.58 9.07
# 42 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 8.63 9.46 9.00
# 33 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 8.09 8.37 8.30
# 35 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 7.47 6.58 6.20
# 55 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 6.42 6.28 5.80
# 77 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 5.04 4.68 5.54
Pred Conf
Rank Big XII Team Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ------ --------- -----------
# 6 Kansas 7 2 OSU (Sa) KU by 14.0
# 13 Texas Tech 6 3 @TCU (Sa)
# 19 Oklahoma 6 3 @UT (Sa)
# 9 West Virginia 5 4 KSU (Sa) WVU by 8.5
# 18 TCU 4 5 TT (Sa) TCU by 1.9
# 42 Kansas State 5 4 @WVU (Sa)
# 33 Texas 4 5 OU (Sa) UT by 1.7
# 35 Baylor 2 7 ISU (Sa) BU by 8.7
# 55 Oklahoma State 3 6 @KU (Sa)
# 77 Iowa State 3 6 @BU (Sa)
Saturday could be huge for Kansas, as our two closest competitors are both projected to
pick up road losses. But the predicted margins are very small, so the games could easily
go either way. If, however, they do lose, and if the Jayhawks take care of business at
home against the Cowboys, the margin could approach three games with eight to play. And
now you see why Saturday could be huge for Kansas.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over OSU 14.0
BU over ISU 8.7
WVU over KSU 8.5
TCU over TTU 1.9
UT over OU 1.7
Sagarin won honors for best prognostications in Round 9. Seven Overtimes retains the
season lead, though with two asterisks. Add twelve points to the cumulative total for
the pair of wrong venues, and Seven Overtimes would still lead marginally over Sagarin.
Predictions
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
WVU over ISU 8.7 6.0 8.1 9.5 7.0 9.0 8.7 5.7 7.9 7.8 3.0 2.0 11.3 11.8 8.4
TTU over UT 6.4 8.0 7.4 8.0 4.0 7.5 7.7 7.1 7.8 10.9 2.0 13.0 8.3 7.8 5.6
OU over BU 5.3 9.0 6.6 6.5 11.5 7.5 7.7 13.3 9.2 7.1 9.0 15.0 7.0 6.5 7.4
KU over KSU 4.4 -1.0 0.9 1.5 -1.0 2.0 1.6 4.3 2.5 4.1 -4.0 -2.0 4.6 5.1 -1.9
TCU over OSU 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 4.5 1.0 0.7 3.0 2.1 2.7 1.0 -3.0 1.8 2.3 2.2
Reality Er1or 1 5 1 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
-16 24.7 22.0 24.1 25.5 23.0 25.0 24.7 21.7 23.9 23.8 19.0 18.0 27.3 27.8 24.4
2 4.4 6.0 5.4 6.0 2.0 5.5 5.7 5.1 5.8 8.9 0.0 11.0 6.3 5.8 3.6
2 3.3 7.0 4.6 4.5 9.5 5.5 5.7 11.3 7.2 5.1 7.0 13.0 5.0 4.5 5.4
14 9.6 15.0 13.1 12.5 15.0 12.0 12.4 9.7 11.5 9.9 18.0 16.0 9.4 8.9 15.9
13 11.8 12.0 11.4 12.0 8.5 12.0 12.3 10.0 10.9 10.3 12.0 16.0 11.2 10.7 10.8
total 53.8 62.0 58.6 60.5 58.0 60.0 60.8 57.8 59.3 58.0 56.0 74.0 59.2 57.7 60.1
previous 332.7 349.0 339.5 332.0 342.5 338.5 343.5 388.3 347.9 345.0 315.0 390.0 348.7 351.7 369.6
cumulative 386.5 411.0 398.1 392.5 400.5 398.5 404.3 446.1 407.2 403.0 371.0 464.0 407.9 409.4 429.7
per game 8.6 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.9 9.0 9.0 8.2 10.3 9.1 9.1 9.5
Only two of the three road wins projected for Round 9 actually happened; Hilton Magic
prevailed in the third. So we're now two road wins behind the long-term average of
one in three. No road wins are projected for Round 10, though two games are expected
to be very close. Road teams opened conference play 8-2 and have since gone 5-30,
with Kansas accounting for three of those five. Winning on the road has suddenly
become very difficult for the other conference members.
Road wins (13 out of 45) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
4 Kansas UT TCU WVU KSU 0 Oklahoma +3 Kansas
2 Kansas State ISU BU 0 Texas Tech +1 Oklahoma
2 TCU BU OSU 1 Kansas TTU +1 Texas Tech
2 West Virginia OSU KSU 1 Texas KU +1 West Virginia
1 Oklahoma TCU 1 West Virginia WVU 0 Kansas State
1 Texas ISU 2 Baylor TCU KSU 0 Texas
1 Texas Tech KU 2 Iowa State KSU UT 0 TCU
0 Baylor 2 Kansas State WVU KU -2 Baylor
0 Iowa State 2 Oklahoma State WVU TCU -2 Iowa State
0 Oklahoma State 2 TCU OU KU -2 Oklahoma State
Kansas is having a hard time shedding those bottom-of-the-conference trend and mental toughness
ratings, but their consistency has been improving.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +1.44 TCU 7.87
Oklahoma +0.91 Oklahoma State 8.89
Kansas +0.72 Kansas State 9.04
TCU +0.66 Texas 9.92
Kansas State +0.33 Oklahoma 10.10
West Virginia -0.15 Baylor 10.24
Oklahoma State -0.20 Texas Tech 11.39
Texas -0.34 Kansas 13.41
Baylor -0.65 Iowa State 14.28
Iowa State -1.97 West Virginia 14.85
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.66 +/- 0.51 Iowa State +0.43 +/- 0.24
TCU +0.21 +/- 0.27 Kansas State +0.08 +/- 0.16
Kansas State +0.16 +/- 0.31 TCU +0.05 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma -0.20 +/- 0.37 Oklahoma 0.00 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State -0.24 +/- 0.30 Texas Tech 0.00 +/- 0.21
Texas -0.24 +/- 0.34 Texas -0.03 +/- 0.18
West Virginia -0.32 +/- 0.51 Baylor -0.11 +/- 0.17
Baylor -0.36 +/- 0.37 Oklahoma State -0.15 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech -0.54 +/- 0.37 West Virginia -0.17 +/- 0.26
Kansas -0.64 +/- 0.44 Kansas -0.57 +/- 0.32
A fourth team has joined the Top 10 in strength of schedule, and nine teams are in the
Top 50. With Kansas State at West Virginia on Saturday, they should join the Top 50.
A couple of strength of schedule rankings got worse, even though their ratings got
stronger; apparently some non-Big 12 teams bolstered their schedule strength ratings
with some tough games.
Iowa State's big win over West Virginia really jumbled the various rankings. West
Virginia was second in defense and first in scoring margin, and now they're fourth
and third, respectively. Iowa State's big home loss to Tennessee more than offset
the big home win over West Virginia, so the Cyclones stayed in negative territory
in scoring margin. Amazing that they scored more points in the first half against
West Virginia than in the entire game against Tennessee.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 90.19 Texas Tech 63.32 Oklahoma 172.81 Kansas +12.27
TCU 85.82 Texas 67.14 TCU 163.45 Texas Tech +12.27
Kansas 82.59 Kansas State 67.41 Kansas 152.91 West Virginia +11.77
West Virginia 80.09 West Virginia 68.32 Oklahoma State 150.18 TCU +8.18
Oklahoma State 76.82 Baylor 70.05 West Virginia 148.41 Oklahoma +7.57
Texas Tech 75.59 Kansas 70.32 Iowa State 147.24 Kansas State +7.36
Baylor 75.57 Oklahoma State 73.36 Baylor 145.62 Baylor +5.52
Kansas State 74.77 Iowa State 74.00 Kansas State 142.18 Texas +4.86
Iowa State 73.24 TCU 77.64 Texas 139.14 Oklahoma State +3.45
Texas 72.00 Oklahoma 82.62 Texas Tech 138.91 Iowa State -0.76
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Texas 80.64 ( 1)
Oklahoma 80.53 ( 2)
Kansas 80.27 ( 6)
Baylor 79.60 ( 8)
West Virginia 78.66 (18)
TCU 78.46 (20)
Iowa State 78.27 (26)
Oklahoma State 77.75 (37)
Texas Tech 76.98 (49)
Kansas State 76.48 (55)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Socalhawk, KMT, newtonhawk
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page:
- NotOstertag
-
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 2004
- Thank you received: 2272
7 years 5 months ago #16084
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
# 6 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 13.69 13.07 13.61
Interesting that KU is the only team that's been projected thusfar to get to 13 wins. We dipped below that 4 rounds and have been back for 4. And obviously the numbers get firmer every week as predictions run into reality.
Using the "win your home games and half of your road games" measure, so far we missed on the first part and excelled on the 2nd part. Using the Bill Self method we "should" be at 6.5 points (4 home wins + 2.5 road wins), and we're at 6.
IF, however, we follow that script in the 2nd half of the season, we'd finish out with 5 home wins and 2 road wins, landing us right on 14. In all but 1 year, 13 has been good enough for at least a tie, and 12 got us a tie (with OU) in 2005.
If I were to place a bet, I'd guess that 13 gets it done this year for solo title, and 12 might be good enough for a tie.
Interesting that KU is the only team that's been projected thusfar to get to 13 wins. We dipped below that 4 rounds and have been back for 4. And obviously the numbers get firmer every week as predictions run into reality.
Using the "win your home games and half of your road games" measure, so far we missed on the first part and excelled on the 2nd part. Using the Bill Self method we "should" be at 6.5 points (4 home wins + 2.5 road wins), and we're at 6.
IF, however, we follow that script in the 2nd half of the season, we'd finish out with 5 home wins and 2 road wins, landing us right on 14. In all but 1 year, 13 has been good enough for at least a tie, and 12 got us a tie (with OU) in 2005.
If I were to place a bet, I'd guess that 13 gets it done this year for solo title, and 12 might be good enough for a tie.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
The following user(s) said Thank You: KMT
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.